Shenmue IV Will Happen - Here's Why!

[Suzaku]

Only saying this once, as we've been over this to death.

But these numbers are not correct.

Those numbers comes from Geimin.net, that was one of the most reliable database for japanese sales data.
All saved and linked thanks to wayback machine.

You should appreciate my work in translate and collect yakuza data, instead of trolling for more than 5 years.

 

[thedemon1238]

If S3 was a huge hit, Sega would 100% fund it without question.

Don't you think it's a little wrong for them to wait for something to become a big hit and then do something? It's entirely their fault that Shenmue 3 didn't come out in 2003. Shenmue I and II are Dreamcast best sellers. They are not guilty of anything. SEGA knows very well that they will not make money with Shenmue and they are doing it for prestige.(for hardware sales and a diverse list of acclaimed hits..) Many companies in the late 90s funded prestige/art games, knowing they wouldn't be big hits. ICO on PS2 for example. Even EA used to make a prestige game like Clive Barkers Undying, Alive and others.

Аlso I haven't noticed SEGA making SOR5, since SOR4 became a hit.

There's more on how SEGA are handling Shenmue. Many things are not clear, but there's a reason they dropped the series in the first place. It's not the sales. After going out of the console hardware business and being bought by Sammy, they just don't need expensive art games anymore.

Fewer and fewer companies make games for good reputation. Times have changed. Now everyone is playing the bad guy. All companies are evil, they think only of money and make no attempt to hide this truth even from their biggest fans. All this is considered normal.

Does anyone seriously think that if Shenmue III had sold 3-4 million, SEGA would suddenly take the game off Suzuki's hands and start making new games in the series? They can NEVER manage to make a game that lives up to the unrealistic expectations of the fans. Shenmue enters in almost every TOP100 games of all time list in the media. Even Yu Suzuki failed do meet all fans expectations. If Shenmue 3 sells like a big hit, no one will care about SEGA anyway. There will be plenty of publishers to release it. Also SEGA is cashing in on Shenmue success (or failure) without lifting a finger anyway.

 

[Suzaku]

Don't you think it's a little wrong for them to wait for something to become a big hit and then do something? It's entirely their fault that Shenmue 3 didn't come out in 2003. Shenmue I and II are Dreamcast best sellers. They are not guilty of anything. SEGA knows very well that they will not make money with Shenmue and they are doing it for prestige.(for hardware sales and a diverse list of acclaimed hits..) Many companies in the late 90s funded prestige/art games, knowing they wouldn't be big hits. ICO on PS2 for example. Even EA used to make a prestige game like Clive Barkers Undying, Alive and others.

Аlso I haven't noticed SEGA making SOR5, since SOR4 became a hit.

There's more on how SEGA are handling Shenmue. Many things are not clear, but there's a reason they dropped the series in the first place. It's not the sales. After going out of the console hardware business and being bought by Sammy, they just don't need expensive art games anymore.

Fewer and fewer companies make games for good reputation. Times have changed. Now everyone is playing the bad guy. All companies are evil, think only of money and make no attempt to hide this truth even from their biggest fans. All this is considered normal.

Does anyone seriously think that if Shenmue III had sold 3-4 million, SEGA would suddenly take the game off Suzuki's hands and start making new games in the series? They can NEVER manage to make a game that lives up to the unrealistic expectations of the fans. Shenmue enters in almost every TOP100 games of all time list in the media. Even Yu Suzuki failed do meet fans expectations. I think they know that too.

You're right about prestige games, it's something that Sony did in the PS4 era in particular (that's also why we got both shenmue and yakuza saved).
Shenmue purpose was to sell Dreamcast consoles, but without a console to sell, there are no need for prestige games and so Sega focused on profitable games only, like any other company.


I read some interviews long ago where some japanese devs complained about how "stiff" a big company like Sega can be with their line-up, even Toshihiro Nagoshi complained that despite the success of Yakuza, he couldn't do what he wanted, because things are planned well in advance, like 5-10 years plans and more (and that's one of the reasons why he left for Netease).

And with current Sega there are only sonic, persona, yakuza and some pc games as their pillars.
Games like panzer dragoon, SOR, shenmue etc. has to be licensed OUTSIDE the company, because inside they said it's nearly "impossible".
And even in case of success, it's very hard for them to change what's already planned for the next 5 years for example.

So we can only hope they will expand their strategy in future to include more classic games INSIDE the company. Maybe the Hyenas failure will finally open their eyes.

 

[darksniper]

Not releasing HYENAS was a complete waste of effort and money. If they're going to waste as much as they did, they may as well be putting a fraction of it into Shenmue and getting some return on it, even if it only just "breaks even". That's the point. They're too busy chasing trends too late or just pumping out Sonic and Yakuza every year. It's tedious.

That's the part about Sega that angers me. Had they spent a good 20-30 million with Shenmue 3, they would have not only got that game done but also a lot of Shenmue 4 would have naturally undertaken development at the same time as well.

A fully invested Sega with their RGG team to provide YS resources along with the VF engine would have had 99.9% of the Shenmue fanbase ALL IN instead of the controversies that Shenmue III had to endure simply because Sega would not get directly involved with the game. Sega would have more than just "broke even" I think, but even if that was the case we as a Shenmue fanbase would not squander the opportunities presented.

Simply put, if Sega thinks that Shenmue is a "risky" project because they're afraid of a loss? They're seriously underestimating us a fanbase because we simply won't let Shenmue die again that easily. We'll do more than our part to spread awareness of how special Shenmue is every chance we get.

The real reason why I think Shenmue IV and even Shenmue III never got made by Sega is because that Yu Suzuki has some bad blood with some of the people inside Sega. Due to the Japanese culture to keep things like this tight lipped, we'll probably never hear the story. But I've always got the sense that there was a division inside Sega on how they felt about Shenmue. Some are very proud of what they achieved for that time, and others are quite resentful of Yu Suzuki because of how demanding it was to get a game like Shenmue done when there was nothing before it.

 

[darksniper]

If we’re going to look at things through the lens of hindsight, one could argue that Sega should never have funded the first two Shenmue games and instead given the money to Nagoshi to work on the Yakuza franchise right from the get-go.

Had Sega gone all in on Yakuza back in the nineties, the Dreamcast may have sold better and Sega might still be making consoles to this day. Better still, we the Shenmue fans would have never played the games and thus would not have spent fifteen years waiting for a sequel nor been left facing more uncertainty some four years later.

Personally though, I believe that it’s better to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all (I think that still applies here).

Off topic but I really wish the DC would have lasted long enough for this to happen. I'm surprised there hasn't been a group of talented programmers to do a Yakuza 1 and 2 demake on the DC. I believe the DC could run those games with no problems.

 

[iknifaugood]

Don't you think it's a little wrong for them to wait for something to become a big hit and then do something?

Maybe in the early 2000s. But allowing Suzuki to use the IP to create a third installment and decide based on that performance makes total sense.

Shenmue I and II are Dreamcast best sellers. They are not guilty of anything. SEGA knows very well that they will not make money with Shenmue and they are doing it for prestige.(for hardware sales and a diverse list of acclaimed hits..) Many companies in the late 90s funded prestige/art games, knowing they wouldn't be big hits.

There's no reason to relitigate Shenmue's sales performance and bad luck. Shenmue 1 sold well for the time but it wasn't the killer app that Sega needed (for instance, Majora's Mask did similar numbers the same year) and Shenmue 2 got screwed by not being localized on Dreamcast and getting a lazy port on Xbox (why they only ported the sequel is another issue). It could definitely be said that companies were more willing to take risks and expectations were more realistic because stakes were lower in the 90s, but that absolutely cannot be said of Shenmue. Shenmue was the precursor to the ultra budget AAA narrative games we see today and Sega fully expected it to do massive numbers. The "What's Shenmue" demo literally ends with Hidekazu Yukawa sitting in front of a pile of unsold Dreamcasts and pumps his fists while looking at a poster for Shenmue...

Аlso I haven't noticed SEGA making SOR5, since SOR4 became a hit.

SOR4 came out in 2020 and just got ported to mobile last year. It sold 2.5M copies in 1 year. It is 100% getting a sequel, they're just going to milk SOR4 a bit first.

Does anyone seriously think that if Shenmue III had sold 3-4 million, SEGA would suddenly take the game off Suzuki's hands and start making new games in the series?

Just to put in context what you're saying: if Shenmue 3 sold 3 million units, that would mean it sold better than Persona 4, any Yakuza game, the entire Shenmue series combined including the remasters, and put it just under Sonic Frontiers. Sega would write Suzuki another blank cheque if that happened.

They can NEVER manage to make a game that lives up to the unrealistic expectations of the fans. Shenmue enters in almost every TOP100 games of all time list in the media. Even Yu Suzuki failed do meet all fans expectations.

I do not subscribe to this belief at all. If Shenmue realizes its potential as "epic martial arts movie: the game" it could see massive success beyond the fanbase.

If Shenmue 3 sells like a big hit, no one will care about SEGA anyway. There will be plenty of publishers to release it.

True, but Sega owns the IP so there's no way they would let another publisher cash in on a hit.

The real reason why I think Shenmue IV and even Shenmue III never got made by Sega is because that Yu Suzuki has some bad blood with some of the people inside Sega. Due to the Japanese culture to keep things like this tight lipped, we'll probably never hear the story. But I've always got the sense that there was a division inside Sega on how they felt about Shenmue. Some are very proud of what they achieved for that time, and others are quite resentful of Yu Suzuki because of how demanding it was to get a game like Shenmue done when there was nothing before it.

I've often wondered this myself. Sega did allow Suzuki to develop Shenmue Online in the early 2000's so who knows?

 

[ahmed_alency7]

Who here thinks shenmue 4 will get announced by the end of the year game awards 2023 me personally i don’t think so if it’s not getting announced by the end of 2024 we should get worried.

 

[Suzaku]

The real reason why I think Shenmue IV and even Shenmue III never got made by Sega is because that Yu Suzuki has some bad blood with some of the people inside Sega. Due to the Japanese culture to keep things like this tight lipped, we'll probably never hear the story. But I've always got the sense that there was a division inside Sega on how they felt about Shenmue. Some are very proud of what they achieved for that time, and others are quite resentful of Yu Suzuki because of how demanding it was to get a game like Shenmue done when there was nothing before it.

I think some people inside Sega and Sammy literally sabotaged Suzuki.
The moment he left Am2, he struggled to get anything done. The most prolific developer in the company, responsible for like half of Sega success, at some point couldn't release a single game?

They forced him to a sort of "early retirement" for like 5-6 years before leaving the company.

What changed meanwhile? Sammy bought Sega and and made Nagoshi the new frontman of the company after the "success" of Yakuza

(Translation: unlike ALL the previous Sega creators like Suzuki, Mizuguchi, Naka etc. Toshihiro Nagoshi was more "manageable", and his management attitude won Sammy's trust more than his creative skills
Sega Sammy at that point needed some good managers, not some geniuses...).

 

[ahmed_alency7]

Do y’all think the 4chan leak is true?

 

[Jibby]

Do y’all think the 4chan leak is true?

No

 

[Seaman]

Off topic but I really wish the DC would have lasted long enough for this to happen. I'm surprised there hasn't been a group of talented programmers to do a Yakuza 1 and 2 demake on the DC. I believe the DC could run those games with no problems.

DC could run those but with lot of workaround and some technical changes. Like Shenmue was made around DC, the original Yakuza was made around PS2 also. It certainly would look 'not as bad' and even outstanding in some aspects (and underperforming in others like loading times i.e.) But no talented group would get into that endeavour because there's no point and lot of legal risk at play. Anyone taming DC's 3D at such level would rather go for a original and personal project.

 

[ahmed_alency7]

No

What’s your opinion on the likelihood of shenmue 4 being made?

 

[iknifaugood]

I think some people inside Sega and Sammy literally sabotaged Suzuki.
The moment he left Am2, he struggled to get anything done.

Didn't they put him in charge of Shenmue Online though? Why would they deliberately sabotage him?

The most prolific developer in the company, responsible for like half of Sega success, at some point couldn't release a single game?

Everything is relative though; Suzuki was a god of the arcade era, without question. He has not seen anywhere near that level of success in the console era and if you guys think Sega broke the bank with $100M on a cancelled game in 2023, imagine what Shenmue's $70M price tag felt like 20 years ago.

Sammy bought Sega and and made Nagoshi the new frontman of the company after the "success" of Yakuza

Why do you think that Yakuza wasn't successful? If the reported numbers (that it cost $21M to make and sold 1M units) are anything close to correct, then that's a success (not a crazy success, but definitely something that would earn a sequel). And why would Sega lie and keep funding it if that weren't the case?

 

[thedemon1238]

I think you'll get the whole idea the moment you put yourself in SEGA's shoes - before the end of the Dreamcast, in the software period and after Sammy takes over.

Shenmue is a project that does not end with one game. It is successful until the time when the SEGA are done with the home consoles. Plans has changed in the "Software" period. Priority is given to easy-to-make games that will bring SEGA out of bankruptcy. After Sammy's take over, the priorities are copying successful models, no risks and following trends. Perhaps because of this, the idea of a Shenmue MMO game was initially nurtured, but then canceled when they saw that it wouldn't be easy and cheap. (even with outsourcing)

Shenmue I is a succesful start of a new series. It showcases the true capabilities of the Dreamcast and is a top best seller for the console. Shenmue 2 has no marketing whatsoever and has been practically destroyed by Software SEGA and their deal with Microsoft. Plans have changed. After that Sammy-SEGA practically freezes real Shenmue games develoment.

When someone makes comparisons between Yakuza and Shenmue they should keep in mind that Shenmue was an unfinished project that if it had been completed would most likely turned a profit. Yakuza is practically a finished project, from which similar games come out every year like FIFA.

Claims like "Shenmue 1 and 2 cost that money and earned that money" are ridiculous in the grand scheme of things. The goal of the game was to be a blockbuster that showcased the console's capabilities. The money invested in Shenmuе could be returned in many other ways if the Dreamcast was a successful console. SEGA are not stupid not to know that investments in such a project will not return immediately. Above we talked about how important prestige games and art games are for a new console in the market. Keep in mind that back then, SEGА didn't know they had no chance against Sony no matter what they did. :)

Why do you think that Yakuza wasn't successful? If the reported numbers (that it cost $21M to make and sold 1M units) are anything close to correct, then that's a success (not a crazy success, but definitely something that would earn a sequel). And why would Sega lie and keep funding it if that weren't the case?

Don't you think it could be a good image advertisement for the real business of the company? (pachinko, gambling, adult entertainment) :) Just like Shenmue is an advertisement for Dreamcast.

It's very straight-forward thinking that every game must necessarily return all the money immediately. Maybe a lot of money went into the engine and technology . If dreamcast hadn't been shut down, there would have been at least 3 shenmue games with this engine by 2004. Or maybe they will use it for samurai shenmue side-game in the past too!

It is enough for Yakuza to recoup the investment in the first few games (1-4) . Yakuza series has extremely high-quality main and side games. It uses assets from the old games and is very well thought out as a successful commercial product. After 10 years and 10 games, the series starts making money in the west as well.

Long story short, Shenmue project was a success until it was shut down prematurely for completely different reasons.

 

[Jibby]

What’s your opinion on the likelihood of shenmue 4 being made?

I think it's inevitable that we'll get it eventually. We know that Suzuki isn't just sitting there twiddling his thumbs.

As long as continues to search for the means to make it, I'll continue to have hope

 

[Seaman]

Sammy lacks punch for name-branding a reputed yakuza front company. It sounds too friendly.

 

[Suzaku]

Didn't they put him in charge of Shenmue Online though? Why would they deliberately sabotage him?

shenmue online was cancelled in the end, like many other of Suzuki's projects in that era.

Everything is relative though; Suzuki was a god of the arcade era, without question. He has not seen anywhere near that level of success in the console era and if you guys think Sega broke the bank with $100M on a cancelled game in 2023, imagine what Shenmue's $70M price tag felt like 20 years ago.

His arcade output always made up (saleswise) for the console output.
I remember Suzuki once mentioned that Virtua Fighter 4 success in the arcade made so many profits that covered the Shenmue losses.

Why do you think that Yakuza wasn't successful? If the reported numbers (that it cost $21M to make and sold 1M units) are anything close to correct, then that's a success (not a crazy success, but definitely something that would earn a sequel). And why would Sega lie and keep funding it if that weren't the case?

Don't get me wrong, Yakuza 1 was a success indeed, but like you also said, a mild success: 1 million in 2-3 years with multiple re-releases wasn't something crazy even by Sega standards.
Sega Sammy saw some decent sales and decide to force the success, by keep releasing yearly sequels, budget re-releases and to continue with marketing (in Japan).

It's a good way to establish a franchise, but it's something you can do basically with any game with a decent userbase, so why only Yakuza and his team had this luxury?
Because probably other Sega creators (almost all the old guard of previous internal studios) weren't manageable like Sammy wanted...

 

[iknifaugood]

shenmue online was cancelled in the end, like many other of Suzuki's projects in that era.

But why would they put him in charge of it if they were trying to sabotage him? Shenmue Online was similar to Hyenas in that it significant upfront costs (around $20M iirc) and was basically DOA when it was announced. And SO at least had the benefit of a fanbase (who were mostly put off by the game).

His arcade output always made up (saleswise) for the console output.
I remember Suzuki once mentioned that Virtua Fighter 4 success in the arcade made so many profits that covered the Shenmue losses.

That doesn't change the fact that, with the move away from arcades, Suzuki did not demonstrate an ability to produce hit games for consoles.

It's a good way to establish a franchise, but it's something you can do basically with any game with a decent userbase, so why only Yakuza and his team had this luxury?
Because probably other Sega creators (almost all the old guard of previous internal studios) weren't manageable like Sammy wanted...

But Sega could just as easily have done the same thing with Shenmue under a different creator if that were the case. What's more likely is that, because Shenmue is extremely story-based, it didn't have a big enough install base that they could just continue the series from S3 and hope that it gained popularity gradually. It was doubly handicapped because the DC user base was fractured over multiple consoles and S2 only got ported to Xbox.

At the end of the day though, Shenmue was supposed to be the killer app for DC in a way that it just wasn't and Sega either wasn't willing or wasn't in the position to run the experiment again on different hardware. Like I said: bad luck, but none of that matters because Suzuki got to make Shenmue 3! We really have a tendency to downplay that around here but with all that hindsight, knowing the size of his audience, having the biggest videogame Kickstarter ever behind him, and Sega letting him use the IP--he still wasn't able to make it work. The failure of Shenmue 1 and 2 is complicated; the failure of Shenmue 3 is squarely on Suzuki, not Sega.

Long story short, Shenmue project was a success until it was shut down prematurely for completely different reasons.

Shenmue cost $70M (from what I understand, that figure takes into account both DC games, as well as their development on the Sega Saturn and probably marketing costs) and it sold just over 1M units. If was can all agree that Yakuza can be considered a mild success with the same number of units at a much smaller budget, then what does that make Shenmue? It's unfair and tragic, I totally agree, but it cannot be called a success. Particularly because this was at a time when games of its size were routinely selling over 5M copies, and most were made for a fraction of the cost.

 

[spud1897]

Shenmue Online is a complex mess. From what I've understood and can gather Suzuki was essentially a figurehead for it but outside of the story arc etc he didn't have much to do with the actual development of it. That was all outsourced. Originally to JC Entertainment and then to SEGA China. Even to this day its still a legal minefield to such a point I've spoken to a couple of people who worked on the game and they won't go on record about it such are the legal complexities around it.

That project ended really badly and was settled out of court with JC Entertainment and quietly mothballed around 2006.

My best guess is that Suzuki was asked to front up the project in the hope it would be successful and fund future games. The issue with that was literally no one wanted Shenmue Online and while they could have made a great ROI with it they spunked $20m on a game that was ill advised and certainly not wanted by the core community. That much was obvious and SEGA ignored it.

As for the costs for Shenmue 1 and 2 there's 2 figures brandished about. The first is the $70m and the other is what Suzuki revealed at GDC 2014 which was $47m. Whether that 2nd figure included marketing I don't know I'd have to watch GDC 2014 again. They had also hoped to use the Shenmue engine for other games which I guess would have helped cover some costs later on perhaps. Whether they used what they learnt from Shenmue in the engine for Yakuza I don't know.

 

[thedemon1238]

Shenmue cost $70M (from what I understand, that figure takes into account both DC games, as well as their development on the Sega Saturn and probably marketing costs) and it sold just over 1M units. If was can all agree that Yakuza can be considered a mild success with the same number of units at a much smaller budget, then what does that make Shenmue? It's unfair and tragic, I totally agree, but it cannot be called a success. Particularly because this was at a time when games of its size were routinely selling over 5M copies, and most were made for a fraction of the cost.

Every 7th or 8th Dreamcast owner bought Shenmue 1. Not even Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy VII or Resident Evil have such a sales ratio. Roughly 1 in 120-130 ps2 owners buy Yakuza. How could it not be a success? :) Dreamcast console just didn't sell. We all know the PS2 hype story.

If you mean it wasn't an interesting enough game to get people saving up for a PS2 to buy a Dreamcast... Yeah, it didn't. The question is whether any game at all could have changed that.