How much Budget do you think Shenmue IV will need to give us the Shenmue experience and why!?

Sergeynest

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I decided to create this thread in order for us to talk about the budget that we believe Shenmue 4 will need in order to give us the Shenmue experience we love and bring Ryo's story one step closer to its conclusion.
I've done some little research and found this interesting video that gives us the example of severall different studios that range from Triple AAA to Indie and the respective budgets that they needed in order to create their games.
The best example I've found in this video and the one that i believe is the most similar to Ys Net's Shenmue 3 is the Title Hellblade Senua's Sacrifice from the studio Ninja Theory. Like Ys Net; Ninja Theory is a small studio that had set a budget of 10.000.000 for the games development and set a sales goal of 300.000 copies being this the amount they needed to sell in order to break even.
These values seem pretty similar to those that Yu Suzuki wanted at the time of the Kickstarter campaign in order to deliver the open world exprience of Shenmue.

The part covering Ninja Theory's Hellblade Senua's Sacrifice starts at 04:20


In a recent interview to IGN Japan Yu Suzuki told that Shenmue 3 reached a budget of around 20.000.000; so according to the numbers set by Ninja Theory for Hellblade Senua's Sacrifice; we can estimate that for Shenmue 3 to break even for a budget of 20.000.000 (That I personally don't believe in !!!) it would have to sell 600.000 copies to break even as well.
Considering Embracer Groups report Shenmue 3 was their best selling game in the final quarter of 2019 and that overhaul it did financially fine.
We also know that they made an exclusivity deal with Epic Games but we do not know the exact numbers for the one Year exclusivity deal that they made; but considering that they gave 10.000.000 for the title Control from the studio Digital Bros and the Publisher 505 Games; we can assume that it is possible that Epic Games may also have made a similar offer of one year exclusivity deal for Shenmue 3.
So it is possible that with that deal Deep Silver may have recouped the money that they had invested for the development of Shenmue 3 and after that made a decent amount of profit in the following months after the games launch.

In my opinion the budget needed for Shenmue IV's development should be around the 15.000.000 mark; considering that Ys Net and is team will use Shenmue 3's assets and all the work that they have already done in the development of Shenmue IV.
It is a budget that I believe will allow them to improve the gameplay mechanics; mainly the fighting system and also improve the characters facial animations as well as the cutscenes needed to tell a rich and engrossing story.
I also believe that trying to go Triple AAA is not the right path for the Shenmue series; because I believe that with series remaining as an indie title will improve the chances of making a greater profit considering that it will appeal to an audience more keen in playing a title with a retro feeling that enjoys a more relaxed and immersive style of gameplay; games like Journey; Stardew Valley and Animal Crossing.

Let the comunity know what is your opinion on the budget that you believe Shenmue 4 needs in order to deliver the Shenmue experience and at the same time captivate a new and wider audience that will allow us to carry on with Ryo's amazing journey trough the end.
Remind yourself to keep your posts respectable towards the other members of the community and staff members alike.
 
It may be a bit controversial here, but I'll say the same as 3. My problems with 3 weren't the budget. I didn't like you'll always lose against certain bosses, the stamina meter and the villain being in disguise most of the game.

I think I would like two nice towns like 3, but improve the other aspects, revamp the battle system a bit and have a more consistent art style, half the characters looked kind of realistic and the other half look cartoony.
 
It may be a bit controversial here, but I'll say the same as 3. My problems with 3 weren't the budget. I didn't like you'll always lose against certain bosses, the stamina meter and the villain being in disguise most of the game.

I think I would like two nice towns like 3, but improve the other aspects, revamp the battle system a bit and have a more consistent art style, half the characters looked kind of realistic and the other half look cartoony.
I agree with you; I think they should create a more cohesive arstyle allround for the characters; as for the locations I would rather have something like Bailu village; more dense and compact. Niaowu is a great location but it kinda felt more empty; specially considering it was a city.
 
This video pretty much explains why a Triple AAA budget is pretty much impossible for Shenmue IV.

 
Well if Yu is trying to update the Shenmue formula to attract more of the general gaming audience while still maintaining the similar experience for existing fans then frankly I think he'll need a 50M to 60M budget.
 
Well if Yu is trying to update the Shenmue formula to attract more of the general gaming audience while still maintaining the similar experience for existing fans then frankly I think he'll need a 50M to 60M budget.
That ain't happening any time soon
 
Shenmue 4 is going to have to be a next gen game at this point so to look decent it's likely going to need a bigger art department to compensate.

One of the most expensive parts of making a game is the cutscenes and cinematic elements. Given the amount of story left to tell in only 2 games (at best) there is going to be a lot of budget to account for this. Consider that adding the scene where you learn the body check from Sun was a big undertaking, More so if the games need to span multiple locations, although they may be able to edit the story and condense the number places left to travel.

If I had to give a number I'd double S3's budget: $40M. But TBH that's just pulled out of the air, they might be able to do it with less
 
I agree with you; I think they should create a more cohesive arstyle allround for the characters; as for the locations I would rather have something like Bailu village; more dense and compact. Niaowu is a great location but it kinda felt more empty; specially considering it was a city.
I feel 4 should have two towns, before the cliff temple and after.
 
I can't imagine the budget will increase by too much if at all (but of course I would be happy for a bigger budget!). Hopefully Unreal 5 can be a bit more efficient with their dev time. While there were issues with Shenmue III that weren't related to budget (some of the gameplay issues, stamina), it is a cinematic game and the quality of the character models and animation needs to be improved, regardless of whether the game targets "AAA" or "Indie".

I'm really not sure what's the best approach going forward. Shenmue has traditionally been a $60 release, so there are definitely certain expectations in quality that comes with that. There would have to be a belief that a higher budget would result in more sales, which I do think is possible but there would also be a point of diminishing returns with regards to the "higher budget=sales" formula.

There's still part of me that thinks taking a small step back with a smaller scoped game could be a good idea, if at least for 1 installment. Say if it's 1 main area and about 5-8 hours long released at $30-40. They can focus on making a smaller but more polished game. I don't think that would preclude them from going back to the 15-20 hour "AAA" game in a future installment, but I can't really think offhand of any story driven series that has done that (but there could always be a first!). However, perhaps that smaller game finds a bit of a budget/sales sweet spot, and they can release smaller sized games more frequently. Say for example, they release 3 small games every 2 years ($40x3=$120) instead of 2 bigger games every 3 years ($60x2=$120).
 
I can't imagine the budget will increase by too much if at all (but of course I would be happy for a bigger budget!). Hopefully Unreal 5 can be a bit more efficient with their dev time. While there were issues with Shenmue III that weren't related to budget (some of the gameplay issues, stamina), it is a cinematic game and the quality of the character models and animation needs to be improved, regardless of whether the game targets "AAA" or "Indie".

I'm really not sure what's the best approach going forward. Shenmue has traditionally been a $60 release, so there are definitely certain expectations in quality that comes with that. There would have to be a belief that a higher budget would result in more sales, which I do think is possible but there would also be a point of diminishing returns with regards to the "higher budget=sales" formula.

There's still part of me that thinks taking a small step back with a smaller scoped game could be a good idea, if at least for 1 installment. Say if it's 1 main area and about 5-8 hours long released at $30-40. They can focus on making a smaller but more polished game. I don't think that would preclude them from going back to the 15-20 hour "AAA" game in a future installment, but I can't really think offhand of any story driven series that has done that (but there could always be a first!). However, perhaps that smaller game finds a bit of a budget/sales sweet spot, and they can release smaller sized games more frequently. Say for example, they release 3 small games every 2 years ($40x3=$120) instead of 2 bigger games every 3 years ($60x2=$120).
Specially considering that the Shenmue series is classified as a core niche product and not for the mass market; "and I seriously doubt that even with a Triple AAA budget that it could become one"; and considering it as a solid Fan base I think it would be feasible for Ys Net to release a Chapter by Chapter series consisting in just one location per chapter in the series like per example Bailu Village with a full fledged Shenmue experience that would be sold for half the price of a bigger title for about 29.99.
The budget needed would be lower and with the support of a solid fan base could even turn in a profit by only launching a physical collectors edition for the more hardcore fans and besides that only selling digital editions of the game to keep the costs low.
 
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The 20M number from Yu could be a "raw total" and might not represent pure dev money (for example, they raised 7M via crowdfunding but they only got ~65% of that after fees and rewards). Does that number include Deep Silver's marketing spend? Sony dev kits? Was Yu rounding up in the interview to sound impressive? Rounding down? We just don't know.

However, I've said this before, but I can see why a game like Shenmue III could cost more than Hellblade to produce. Hellblade certainly looks expensive because they had the advantage of an established AAA team and a world-class animation studio from day one. YS Net started from nothing and had to produce a game with hundreds of characters, reams of voice acting, tons of different game modes, a semi-open world, etc. Hellblade's an impressive game but they pulled it off by limiting the scope significantly, while Shenmue III attempted to deliver as much as possible (rightly or wrongly) within its budget. It definitely isn't an apples-to-apples comparison.

When operating at this level of game development, budget affects every aspect of a game. Shenmue III is missing an entire environment due to time/budget restraints, which caused the game a lot of structural problems, so when Cedric says they need a bigger budget to meet player expectations, I believe him. The missing throws/grapples is another example: they couldn't pull them off with the equipment they had. To do it "properly" next time will cost more money.

For argument's sake, if S3's dev cost was ~15M, I think they'll be looking for ~20-25M for S4. Whatever S3 cost, I think they're probably looking for an extra 1/3 of the previous budget, minimum. Could they do it on the same budget or less? Probably, but again, it comes back to player expectations. My assumption is Yu and Cedric want to deliver a game that's as close to their vision as possible, that isn't hamstrung by cuts and limitations. Whether that's actually possible, only time will tell I guess.
 
I know it's a pretty cliche saying now, but honestly, if I'd won the lottery or inherited millions, Yu would be the first person I'd back with a blank cheque to make Shenmue 4 with. Even a Shenmue 3 "directors cut" so that he could include what looked like he couldn't the first time around.

But on topic, I think a similar budget to 3 should be enough for 4 since they already have a lot of assets already ready to go.
 
The 20M number from Yu could be a "raw total" and might not represent pure dev money (for example, they raised 7M via crowdfunding but they only got ~65% of that after fees and rewards). Does that number include Deep Silver's marketing spend? Sony dev kits? Was Yu rounding up in the interview to sound impressive? Rounding down? We just don't know.

However, I've said this before, but I can see why a game like Shenmue III could cost more than Hellblade to produce. Hellblade certainly looks expensive because they had the advantage of an established AAA team and a world-class animation studio from day one. YS Net started from nothing and had to produce a game with hundreds of characters, reams of voice acting, tons of different game modes, a semi-open world, etc. Hellblade's an impressive game but they pulled it off by limiting the scope significantly, while Shenmue III attempted to deliver as much as possible (rightly or wrongly) within its budget. It definitely isn't an apples-to-apples comparison.

When operating at this level of game development, budget affects every aspect of a game. Shenmue III is missing an entire environment due to time/budget restraints, which caused the game a lot of structural problems, so when Cedric says they need a bigger budget to meet player expectations, I believe him. The missing throws/grapples is another example: they couldn't pull them off with the equipment they had. To do it "properly" next time will cost more money.

For argument's sake, if S3's dev cost was ~15M, I think they'll be looking for ~20-25M for S4. Whatever S3 cost, I think they're probably looking for an extra 1/3 of the previous budget, minimum. Could they do it on the same budget or less? Probably, but again, it comes back to player expectations. My assumption is Yu and Cedric want to deliver a game that's as close to their vision as possible, that isn't hamstrung by cuts and limitations. Whether that's actually possible, only time will tell I guess.
In terms of interactivity and gameplay wise Shenmue 3 is a much more complete game when compared to Hellblade Senua; Hellblade is a much more linear game but with Triple AAA graphics; better lip sink and high sound quality.
I don't know if it can be compared but from what I've seen the Hellblade's team did an amazing job on using their resources; they used one of their workers as the actress for the main character; the voice acting and sfx were recorded by their own team and even the motion capture equipment was assembled by them; so this is the kind of work that can also make a huge difference on the total development cost of the game itself and frankly it didn't seem to me that Ys Net's team had this kind of approach when developing Shenmue 3; but nevertheless I don't think that the budget was the teams main problem for not being able to deliver the complete Shenmue experience on 3; I think it was mostly because of the bad scripting and lack of some ideas that ended up hurting the games final result.
I believe that with little few changes in the story and narrative of the game they could have delivered a much better overhaul experience.

Per example; I personally would have liked for them to have made at least a cutscene where Grand Master Feng would have given Ryo the Green Training Outfit of the concept art; saying like per example that the uniform was from Iwao when he trained in Bailu village; that would create a greater bond between them and would deepen Iwao's story arch in Bailu.
Another example was that they could have made both the Gang Leaders of the Red Snakes and Blue Spiders brothers; this would have made much more sense of why there were two Super muscled guys in the story and why Ryo would beat them with two versions of the body check; not to mention that by that fact alone they would be seen as much more interesting villains.
They should also have ditched the cutscenes with the Temple Maiden and the Fat Guy helping out storming the castle; specially those of her banging her broom stick on the heads of the castle guards; they should have used those resources in Niaowu in the story arch of the red snakes; like per example creating a cutscene were Ryo would help them deal with the thugs or even the opposite with Ryo being trapped and outnumbered and by chance per example the fat guy would appear and would help out Ryo; it would even make more sense if they helped out Ryo storm the warehouse of the Red Snakes instead of the castle after Ryo being defeated twice by the muscle guy and then Ryo would learn the reversed body check from Master Bei and after that they would have the final confrontation at the top of the castle stairs.
In the training with Master Bei Ryo should have learned to strengthen his Balance by training on top of one of those bamboo rafts in a QTE mini game; this way they would have added more variety to Ryo's training and the balance would have been a perfect complement to the speed training that Ryo had with Master Sun; these two elements would help out greatly Ryo in mastering both of the Body Check moves.
In the final fight with Lan Di; instead of the QTE's with the bodyguards they should have made either an actual fight with them and if they actually could have pulled of with giving us the oportunity to actually be able to fight with Ren like in the cutscene; that would surely have blown the socks out of everyone; but they could have ditched that cutscene and made a big one and intense with Lan Di where at some point Ren seeying that Ryo would lose to Lan Di he would intervene distracting Lan Di for a fraction of a second enough for Ryo to land a blow on Lan Di after having performed the hardest QTE sequence in the game; then of couse Ryo and Ren would get their asses beaten up pretty badly by Lan Di's rage.
As for the DLC's the Battle Run and Bailu Chan are nice additions to play after completing the game; as for the story quest dlc and the Big Merry Cruise they should have merged it into one per example and should have made the Boat Chapter with Chai where we would actually fight him and close the deal once and for all and that would actually be the best DLC fan service that they could have given the fans because it was one of the things that they actually really wanted for a long time.

But I also would say this; its much easier to find the flaws in something that is already done and come up with new and possible better ideas than when we are actually creating something something new; but nevertheless I think they could have given more tough to the story and how the player ("Fan") would feel when playing the game.
Just want to add that I really enjoy Shenmue 3 and that it has lot of great ideas that in my opinion have evolved the series to a certain extent and that if they can better balance them out they can become even greater.
 
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I have no idea about game development, but what I find confusing is that considering a lot of the work for a sequel has already been done (assets, mechanics, pre-written story, characters, unused music, Baisha environments), wouldn't $15-20 million be more than plenty to create a S4 that is just a more polished version of S3? I guess I'm just confused when Cedric says they need to pursue a far greater budget than S3, when I would have thought an S4 that will largely be reusing things but polishing them up a bit would be cheaper to make than the game which had to create everything from scratch.
 
I have no idea about game development, but what I find confusing is that considering a lot of the work for a sequel has already been done (assets, mechanics, pre-written story, characters, unused music, Baisha environments), wouldn't $15-20 million be more than plenty to create a S4 that is just a more polished version of S3? I guess I'm just confused when Cedric says they need to pursue a far greater budget than S3, when I would have thought an S4 that will largely be reusing things but polishing them up a bit would be cheaper to make than the game which had to create everything from scratch.

I'm inclined to agree that this could be possible development wise, and could make a better Shenmue game next time (and I'd certainly take it). But Cedric appears to be suggesting that S4 *needs* to turn a bigger profit/reach a wider audience, and so a bigger budget would be the means to achieving that. It seems he thinks that making a superior version of 3 just isn't going to bring in enough money.

So from his POV if they can't repeat the development circumstances of 3 ($7 million from kickstarter, which helped to bring in further investment and the epic deal), he/they have to consider that investors will only want to supply funds if a certain level of profitability seems likely. They no longer have the $7 mil from the kickstarter to get things moving, (or the epic deal situation, I *think*) and if S3 was "decent but kinda niche" sales wise, then investors *now* may look at it as, "ok we hoped for better, so want to see if you can guarantee a bigger budget to make a game that can reach a wider audience and turn a bigger profit before we invest anything."

Seems like budget wise they may have to start all over again in order to convince investors (I could be wrong though, and maybe it's a lot more hopeful than that). I think the difficulty is getting the ball rolling, as even getting $15-20 mil may not be straightforward/guaranteed.

EDIT: I don't really *blame* S3 for this. The series was already dead precisely because no one would fund it on *any* level whatsoever. They had to cobble together a budget haphazardly off of the back of a kickstarter. S3 could have turned out a bit better (or worse) in the development conditions they had, but I dont think it would have been "better enough" to make much impact on sales imo.
 
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I'm inclined to agree that this could be possible development wise, and could make a better Shenmue game next time (and I'd certainly take it). But Cedric appears to be suggesting that S4 *needs* to turn a bigger profit/reach a wider audience, and so a bigger budget would be the means to achieving that. It seems he thinks that making a superior version of 3 just isn't going to bring in enough money.

So from his POV if they can't repeat the development circumstances of 3 ($7 million from kickstarter, which helped to bring in further investment and the epic deal), he/they have to consider that investors will only want to supply funds if a certain level of profitability seems likely. They no longer have the $7 mil from the kickstarter to get things moving, (or the epic deal situation, I *think*) and if S3 was "decent but kinda niche" sales wise, then investors *now* may look at it as, "ok we hoped for better, so want to see if you can guarantee a bigger budget to make a game that can reach a wider audience and turn a bigger profit before we invest anything."

Seems like budget wise they may have to start all over again in order to convince investors (I could be wrong though, and maybe it's a lot more hopeful than that). I think the difficulty is getting the ball rolling, as even getting $15-20 mil may not be straightforward/guaranteed.

EDIT: I don't really *blame* S3 for this. The series was already dead precisely because no one would fund it on *any* level whatsoever. They had to cobble together a budget haphazardly off of the back of a kickstarter. S3 could have turned out a bit better (or worse) in the development conditions they had, but I dont think it would have been "better" enough to make much impact on sales imo.
Investors aren't going to invest in a game that hasn't proven that it can make a substantial profit specially if it failed to gather a new audience since it was one of the things it should have done.
Investors look at numbers first and those numbers shows them the probability in the risk they are going to take; unfortunately I can't see any investor besides Sony or Epic Games in taking that kind of a risk. ( Sega could be a possibility but I think it would take a miracle for it to happen)
Shenmue 3 had the impossible task of satisfying the fans and at the same time attract a newer and wider audience of gamers and as much as it costs me to admit it "because I really enjoy Shenmue 3" ; it ended up failing completly in one of them.
I think Yu and Cedric have the right to look for a bigger budget for Shenmue 4 and I commend that; but reality tells me that they are just going to get the door slammed in their faces.
 
Investors aren't going to invest in a game that hasn't proven that it can make a substantial profit specially if it failed to gather a new audience since it was one of the things it should have done.
Investors look at numbers first and those numbers shows them the probability in the risk they are going to take; unfortunately I can't see any investor besides Sony or Epic Games in taking that kind of a risk. ( Sega could be a possibility but I think it would take a miracle for it to happen)
Shenmue 3 had the impossible task of satisfying the fans and at the same time attract a newer and wider audience of gamers and as much as it costs me to admit it "because I really enjoy Shenmue 3" ; it ended up failing completly in one of them.
I think Yu and Cedric have the right to look for a bigger budget for Shenmue 4 and I commend that; but reality tells me that they are just going to get the door slammed in their faces.

These are the kinds of discussion that will be currrently ongoing I'm sure. If they (Yu and Cedric) end up settling on the lower budget "upgraded S3" option, it appears that they may still be facing the dilemma of not making enough money for their respective companies and investors (whoever they get, *if* they get enough). So it's tricky.
 
These are the kinds of discussion that will be currrently ongoing I'm sure. If they (Yu and Cedric) end up settling on the lower budget "upgraded S3" option, it appears that they may still be facing the dilemma of not making enough money for their respective companies and investors (whoever they get, *if* they get enough). So it's tricky.
The main problem I see with the Shenmue series is that a Shenmue game needs a lot of money to be made and unfortunately it doesn't manage to make the profit that is considered worth for that investment; that's why I think its more advantageous for them to use assets of Shenmue 3 in the development of 4 because it reduces costs and a great part of the job is already done wich equals also less time spent in the development of the game wich once again reduces costs. That's what Sega does with the Yakuza series and that's also what other video game companies do; they capitalize on their invesment this way not to say that it is also a much more substainable approach for a small imdepentand studio like Ys Net.
 
I think Cedric's dream is for Shenmue to be the big prestige series it used to be, and is probably looking for an appropriately high budget to make that possible, to grow the fanbase, etc. And who knows, maybe it'll happen...but if it doesn't, I hope they realise that a "cheaper" Shenmue IV would still be worth it, and do it for the fans. I think Yu understands this anyway.
 
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