Deep Silver is probably already out, the financial report with the "Shenmue 3 is niche game" was their farewell to the series.
Also they did some damage with that phrase, it's difficult that a new publisher will try to approach the series after that statement...
Mh, pretty sure almost nobody saw any real potential in the series in the first place.
Otherwise why did it take that long to even make Shenmue 3.
Sega wasnt interested, Microsoft wasnt interested, Sony wasnt interested in funding the whole thing,
Yu Suzuki had to get help just to promote a Kickstarter campaign.
Those are not signs for a popular IP (from the publisher side).
The only way to turn this around from indie / AA into a upgraded succesor / series
would have been a super awesome rated Shenmue 3 and sales numbers through the roof.
Then Deep Silver would have probably agreed to keep going /
or it would have been way easier for Ys Net to find help elsewhere.
So i dont think that Deep Silver statements did any real damage,
the game IP popularity is probably exaclty where it was between Shenmue 2 and Shenmue 3.
If we take Deep Silver out of this whole scenario,
we would have gotten the original Kickstarter game with no further delays for any other polish
and no budget boost. Before Deep Silver came on board,
Yu Suzuki commented that he wasnt even sure if all NPCs are going to be voiced.
So then even if that would have been a bigger success as a Kickstarter only game for fans,
it would still be a super small and cheap project for hardcore fans only with probably no worldwide physical release at all.
So would that attract more big publishers? I doubt it.
They would still have to figure out how to make Shenmue 4 next somehow.
Possibly even without the helping promoting hand from Sony because as we know
these original PS guys arent working for PS anymore.
It was never realistic to think that suddenly Square Enix, Capcom, Bandai Namco or whatever calls
Ys Net for a cooperation offer. If that would have been a realistic choice,
then there never would have been a Kickstarter campaign.