Shenmue 3 Sales

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Gamstat's chugged along to 65K players, btw.

Dec 6, 2019
Gamstat.com have a rough way of checking how many people have played each game on PS4. Their website explains how they do this before people start asking. It’s not an exact number but it helps them get close.

They only have up to 24th November but they’re saying only 24,000 played Shenmue 3 on their PS4 in the first 5 days it was on sale.

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Growth of +41K since Dec 6, 2019.
 
So they think 65k, in total? That's basically just backers at that point.

If I do some really rough math and pretend the publisher gets to keep 70% of each sale on average, and every copy was purchased at full price (certainly not the case), it'd still have to sell ~125,000 copies to make $5 million, which is roughly what I suspect Deep Silver put into the project, including marketing etc.

But, they probably already made most of their money back from the Epic deal, so they're good either way.

It's when you put it into perspective of the entire budget that things look a little dicey, if it has sold less than 100k. If the game cost ~$12M in total, it'd have to sell closer to 300,000 copies (probably more with discounts etc.) -- then it'd be more appealing for those investing in IV.

Honestly, I would've thought those type of numbers were achievable for SIII. The releases most likely sold in that ballpark. But the rerelease had better reviews, and was on more platforms.
 
orient said:
So they think 65k, in total? That's basically just backers at that point.

If I do some really rough math and pretend the publisher gets to keep 70% of each sale on average, and every copy was purchased at full price (certainly not the case), it'd still have to sell ~125,000 copies to make $5 million, which is roughly what I suspect Deep Silver put into the project, including marketing etc.

But, they probably already made most of their money back from the Epic deal, so they're good either way.

It's when you put it into perspective of the entire budget that things look a little dicey, if it has sold less than 100k. If the game cost ~$12M in total, it'd have to sell closer to 300,000 copies (probably more with discounts etc.) -- then it'd be more appealing for those investing in IV.

Honestly, I would've thought those type of numbers were achievable for SIII. The releases most likely sold in that ballpark. But the rerelease had better reviews, and was on more platforms.
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Spot on. Is the 65k players or units sold?

xatruio said:
65k dont sound too bad, really; neither does 24k in first week. Especially if you consider gamestat seems to round down.
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Based on what?
 
Shouldn't we stop this thread ?

Speculating on sales with an incomplete data doesn't give us any clue on whether Shenmue 3 was a success or failure.

We don't have enough data about that.(The exact budget that was spent on the game , Budget of marketing , The additional budget that Deep Silver brought into the project , the exact sales data for the game , the extra money that the game made with DLCs , the money it's gonna make on steam , The money that Deep Silver made by epic exclusivity etc)

If internet has taught me something, it is this that fanboys always try to say that the game was a success and haters always try to prove that the game was a huge failure.(Death Stranding's sales threads across the internet are very similar to this thread.Majority of the internet considers Metal Gear Survive to be a failure because of their hatred of Konami even though that might be completely wrong.)

Sometimes some games that people considered as successful were never really successful. For example Devil May Cry 4 was obviously a failure in the eyes of Capcom that they decided to completely reboot the franchise despite this that everyone believed that DMC 4 was a huge success.

So, Only after 2-3 years we can obviously say on whether 3 was a success or failure.(Since if it was a success then Deep Silver would fund a sequel. Otherwise we won't get any sequels.)
 
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Dg1995 said:
Since if it was a success then Deep Silver would fund a sequel. Otherwise we won't get any sequels.)
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Not exactly.
It wouldn't need Deep Silver to fund any sequels as they don't own the IP. It's not Deep Silver's way or that's it, franchise finished.
Yu could just find other partners to help fund Shenmue 4 and 5. I think Epic would probably be the safest bet now personally and they may even pump more money into the sequels than DS did for 3.
 
As far as stopping the thread goes, tempting as it may be based on some of the negative attitudes, I think it needs to stay open for now. The trackers on trophy sites are interesting, and we may get some news at some point from any of the parties involved (a lot). If that happens, it's worth keeping open. If it keeps becoming a cesspool of baseless guessing, then I'll gladly lock it. We're just not...quite there yet.
 
It’s interesting to see some steady growth on the trophy sites at least. I think the discounted price is paying off.
 
About discounted prices, Shenmue 3 is now 14.99$ if you saved the Christmas coupon on the EGS.
 
I think that the trophy for completing the game is now 'common' which is pretty good news. I think I read something that companies do analytics on trophies (can't remember where, but I have definitely read it) so it could be read that people who buy the game play it.

On the other side of the wedge, something like Uncharted 4 which has sold a shit ton; completing the game only gives you about 15% trophies, so maybe it works both ways?
 
bcdcdude said:
I think that the trophy for completing the game is now 'common' which is pretty good news. I think I read something that companies do analytics on trophies (can't remember where, but I have definitely read it) so it could be read that people who buy the game play it.

On the other side of the wedge, something like Uncharted 4 which has sold a shit ton; completing the game only gives you about 15% trophies, so maybe it works both ways?
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That's great actually. Because people never complete games. I mean, the story mode.

If you look at steam, most of the people never finish their games:

GTA V, only 23% completed the last mission.
The witcher 3, only 26% finished the story
Nier Automata, 5%
Metal Gear Solid V, 19%
Valkyrica Chronicles 4 22%

If the game it's +20 hours, this is the result.

Now, if it's 8-15 hours, you can get a 50% (which still ridiculous to me), like Bioshock Infinite 50%, GRIS 43%, Tomb Raider 2013 42%
 
Anyone got a spare christmas coupon for egs? Wouldnt mind picking up a pc version of s3
 
orient said:
So they think 65k, in total? That's basically just backers at that point.

If I do some really rough math and pretend the publisher gets to keep 70% of each sale on average, and every copy was purchased at full price (certainly not the case), it'd still have to sell ~125,000 copies to make $5 million, which is roughly what I suspect Deep Silver put into the project, including marketing etc.

But, they probably already made most of their money back from the Epic deal, so they're good either way.

It's when you put it into perspective of the entire budget that things look a little dicey, if it has sold less than 100k. If the game cost ~$12M in total, it'd have to sell closer to 300,000 copies (probably more with discounts etc.) -- then it'd be more appealing for those investing in IV.

Honestly, I would've thought those type of numbers were achievable for SIII. The releases most likely sold in that ballpark. But the rerelease had better reviews, and was on more platforms.
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70% is what you get with digital downloads. Physical is more about 30-40%.
But even if we're being vastly generous with that 70% (because I doubt all sales are digital + the fact that even at that rate, there's also the licence fee for SEGA) that'd mean 300k copies at full fat 60 dollars to break even. What's the incentive here for a mid tier publisher ? Not even the positive word of mouth since Shenmue III reviews were mostly mixed/average.

There is case to make though that making a Shenmue IV would be cheaper and quicker since a lot of the work is already done... But then it'd mean working on a smaller budget.
 
Sput said:
That's great actually. Because people never complete games. I mean, the story mode.

If you look at steam, most of the people never finish their games:

GTA V, only 23% completed the last mission.
The witcher 3, only 26% finished the story
Nier Automata, 5%
Metal Gear Solid V, 19%
Valkyrica Chronicles 4 22%

If the game it's +20 hours, this is the result.

Now, if it's 8-15 hours, you can get a 50% (which still ridiculous to me), like Bioshock Infinite 50%, GRIS 43%, Tomb Raider 2013 42%
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Yeah, I'm with Dietsoap; while I'm not surprised that casual gamers don't finish games, those numbers specifically REALLY surprise me.

I see EVERY game I own, from start to finish (unless it's too difficult and I can't beat it... Puyo Puyo :() and I don't play 50 games at once; I focus on one game, start it, then play nothing else until it's done; it's why I'm only playing through Story DLC and Big Merry Cruise (doing it in order, though; haven't stepped on the boat yet) just now, because I was invested in Ryu ga Gotoku 7.

Baffling numbers, it's too bad they are the ones that dictate the industry (due to sales) :(
 
orient said:
Honestly, I would've thought those type of numbers were achievable for SIII. The releases most likely sold in that ballpark. But the rerelease had better reviews, and was on more platforms.
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That's the main issue. There are adult gamers who weren't born when Shenmue was initially released. If it wasn't for the rave reviews and excellent graphics, I probably would have skipped The Witcher III as it was the third instalment in a game I never even heard of previously. Wasn't the best planned release and that would have been okay if it was the last game in the series or we were guaranteed an end. Otherwise, should have been better planned and some of the marketing was inexcusable.

Seriously, if I won the Euro Millions I would happily sink half of my winnings into remaking all of the games.
 
Sput said:
That's great actually. Because people never complete games. I mean, the story mode.

If you look at steam, most of the people never finish their games:

GTA V, only 23% completed the last mission.
The witcher 3, only 26% finished the story
Nier Automata, 5%
Metal Gear Solid V, 19%
Valkyrica Chronicles 4 22%

If the game it's +20 hours, this is the result.

Now, if it's 8-15 hours, you can get a 50% (which still ridiculous to me), like Bioshock Infinite 50%, GRIS 43%, Tomb Raider 2013 42%
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I wonder how true those stats are. How do the majority of people NOT finish a game they purchased?
 
Dietsoap said:
what the fuck
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I think many people jump in the Nier bandwagon without knowing much of what it is.
Nier 1 was very repetitive although charming and filled by moments of brilliance, especially in the world building. I didn't play Automata but the hype around the sequel was irrational as much as Shenmue 3 at E3 since both have niche communities.

The success of Automata and Persona 5 somehow demonstrate that Shenmue 3 had room to sell way more copies if it was better presented or had less cringy content (animation, dub) so you can think it's a missed opportunity - by Sega to begin with.

The ownership issue really downed the potential of the game. Shenmue 3 was literaly a brand as itself, if not a meme. Its destiny was the million sales, at the very least.
 
Nathanial Essex said:
I wonder how true those stats are. How do the majority of people NOT finish a game they purchased?
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These days, I don’t finish a lot of games. I didn’t finish GTA5 on PS4 (I completed it on 360 though), I got bored of Borderlands 3 about half way through. I didn’t even complete FFX or FFX for various reasons even though I really enjoyed both (FFX is probably my favorite Final Fantasy game). Either through a lack of time or a lack of motivation to play, I routinely stop playing a game before I complete it.

It’s worth remembering that Shenmue 3’s stats are somewhat skewed due to players needing to unlock at least one trophy before the game is added to their profile and included in the total PSN player count. For both Shenmue 1 and 2 on PS4, around 20% of people stopped playing before unlocking their first trophy, so if we assume the same was true for Shenmue 3, around 32.5% of players completed the game.
 
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