It depends on who is reviewing it at each outlet.
If you get someone who maybe has played Shenmue or has a bit of a flair for nostalgia then it may pass by with a decent score.
If you get someone who is of the mind set that "iT lOoKs lIkE Ps2" then it will probably score pretty low.
I see a few complaints incoming in most reviews:
-- I think the fighting will receive the bulk of criticism. Based on all reports coming out of E3 and GamesCom....I think the fighting could be the weakest element of the game and could easily be the thing most criticized. Or the thing that lets it down the most.
-- I think the English voice acting will probably be criticized for being too stiff and outdated...sure, we see the charm in that dub, but to joe-blow reviewer who is used to modern day dubs then I don't think it will fair well. Unless you get someone who sees it as an "ironic piece of nostalgia." (i.e hipster) I just think that dub is going to be criticized by some.
-- Outdated mechanics...if the game feels in any way outdated then some outlets will definitely make the case that "the world has moved on while Shenmue III remains a relic of a forgotten past" type of thing. Or alternatively some reviewers could see that as its virtue. You never really can tell.
-- If the game is in anyway buggy, I think it will be severely noted and even exaggerated in review scores.
I still think those are the bulk of criticisms that I'm expecting come review date.
Realistically I'm expecting somewhere between 6 or 7 from most outlets....with maybe a couple of outlets being kinder to it depending on who is reviewing it.
For instance; will Easy Allies review it and if so, will Huber be the one to do the job? It's a tricky thing. Do you get someone who is clearly a fan to review it or do you get someone who isn't a fan to review it? Not to say Huber couldn't identify any of its flaws, but we know Huber is prone to hype and his bias for Shenmue would be strong.
But again, it just depends on who is reviewing at these outlets. Some will probably tear into it. Others might be lenient and see its beauty. Also depends on how much time they put into it and what they see and don't see.
I was listening to the Giant Bombcast earlier and they mentioned the whole Shenmue refund ordeal. Jeff let out a comment that "it's a mess...much like Shenmue 3 was apparently a mess at E3"
It kind of hit home that there are some outlets that already feel this way, so be prepared. Mind you, Jeff has always had a hate boner for Shenmue so I'm not shocked that came out of his mouth, but I did do a double take and think "really?"
Most of the previews I saw were actually kind of even handed in their critique. I didn't hear people saying it was a "mess" (outside of that one French outlet)
Anyways, long story short. Who really knows how it will go? I think the obvious critiques are the ones above.
I still expect it to be the same reaction that Yoka Laylee got. Which was "it's outdated and past its prime"
But I was genuinely shocked that Shenmue 1 and 2 HD reviewed fairly decently (I was expecting critics to tear that collection apart as being outdated) so maybe Shenmue III will do solidly among reviewers as a piece of nostalgia
I still predict the Meta critic score to be around 60 to 75. I don't think it will be any higher than that. I would be shocked if it does get higher than that.
But all we can do is wait and see. Anyways, I don't really give a shit about the scores. Nothing will stop me from playing it day one.