Hope gauge poll, do you believe or don't believe 4 can happen?

Do you believe 4 will happen

  • Absolutely, the dream will not die

    Votes: 95 84.1%

  • No, the dream has died on big wall in china.

    Votes: 18 15.9%
  • Total voters
    113
jsh020

jsh020

Joined
Oct 4, 2019
There's lots of negativity and optimism in direct conflict with each other over the forum since 3 actually released and whether 4 is going to happen. So I'm kind of curious what number of us wind up on said camps. No in between's pick your definitive belief in pessimism or optimism.

Personally, I feel like somehow there will be a 4th, whether its gonna be an absurdly compromised vision either to low budget or less creative control to accomplish that is another story, but I do think narrowly it will happen.
 
I believe it will happen, but not without the fans' ardent support.

We can pretty much rule out the non-fans being a factor after S3.

If a publisher is gonna greenlight S4, they will be only targeting the existing fanbase.

So if the fanbase isn't gonna demand the fourth game as passionately as they did for the third game, I think the chances of seeing it would be incredibly slim to none.
 
I honestly don't think its gonna happen. unless the sales are surprisingly high... which is a shame. this game was so light on story. Everything else game system wise was really good considering the budget; but jesus.. character interactions and story was on the back burner. all those interesting looking characters (Shrine Maiden, Grandmaster Bei etc..) we saw in trailers and screenshots get about 5-10 minutes of screen time across the whole game.. nothing like in past games where they would come and go and be involved at multiple points throughout the game.

.. I enjoyed the game and considering its budget and the fact it was kickstarted I'm impressed what they managed to squeeze in game system wise.. but damn.. those new characters were totally wasted :(
 
It’s not something I hold hopes for. Not because I don’t think shenmue 3 is a good game but because it seems to have divided the fan base massively. I would back a shenmue 4 though easily.

If it doesn’t happen I got shenmue 3 which I am very grateful for.
 
Rikitatsu said:
I believe it will happen, but not without the fans' ardent support.

We can pretty much rule out the non-fans being a factor after S3.

If a publisher is gonna greenlight S4, they will be only targeting the existing fanbase.

So if the fanbase isn't gonna demand the fourth game as passionately as they did for the third game, I think the chances of seeing it would be incredibly slim to none.
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Agreed all day. Which is why we need to demand Shenmue 4 as of January 2020 and begin the journey in earnest.
 
I'll be there asking for it because i want to see whats in the cliff side temple; I just hope if we do get Shenmue 4 there is more focus on story and characters this time..
 
Try Asking Sumiya San said:
It’s not something I hold hopes for. Not because I don’t think shenmue 3 is a good game but because it seems to have divided the fan base massively. I would back a shenmue 4 though easily.

If it doesn’t happen I got shenmue 3 which I am very grateful for.
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I'm not sure the fanbase is as divided as would be suggetsed. Theres a vocal minority out there who are shitting on the game hard.

The guys I see on here regularly have valid criticisms but haven't shat on the game, it's only a few who are going way over the top.

If a campaign started I'd bet most would get behind it.
 
spud1897 said:
I'm not sure the fanbase is as divided as would be suggetsed. Theres a vocal minority out there who are shitting on the game hard.

The guys I see on here regularly have valid criticisms but haven't shat on the game, it's only a few who are going way over the top.

If a campaign started I'd bet most would get behind it.
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I hope so spud! Yes the criticisms are very valid by most people it’s the shitting on the game that’s the issue and needs to be addressed.

I will campaign for a 4th but be cautiously pessimistic so it doesn’t hurt to much if a 4th never comes around.
 
Try Asking Sumiya San said:
I hope so spud! Yes the criticisms are very valid by most people it’s the shitting on the game that’s the issue and needs to be addressed.

I will campaign for a 4th but be cautiously pessimistic so it doesn’t hurt to much if a 4th never comes around.
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I've been saying this for a while that we push the positive line for Shenmue III over social media. We do that it drowns out the minority who are shitting on it.

Same man but I'll be here until it happens!
 
I'm still skeptical that it'll continue in game format, but it can still continue in other forms. Shenmue 3's LEs and the HD collections have at least shown that there is an audience with money willing to pay, even if its not the largest.
 
I think that they already have the team and the tools built, so it would be easier to make Shenmue 4 than it was Shenmue 3.
 
I really dislike S3 but he’s already got my money for S4. I hope that he listens to the complaints about 3 because there are major problems that have nothing to do with budget or unrealistic expectations. Fingers crossed that we get to see the story.
 
I too really want four to happen and I am hopeful that it will. With a lot of assets made that comprise the core Shenmue gameplay, making 4 should be far easier than 3. I think Yu-san underestimated just how much time and money would be required to build the systems that make up the core of the Shenmue experience. If they use the same engine (I've got not issues with similar graphics), they can hopefully implement all the new systems Yu-san wanted to put in 3.
 
My optimism is waning along with the sales figures. Publishers take no more than 10% of a game sale, and with it looking like Shenmue 3’s going to struggle to make it past the 200,000 mark, that equates to about $1m (assuming a sale price of $50). Deep Silver will make their money back on Shenmue 3 thanks to the Epic deal, but when it comes to stumping up the $5m+ needed to make S4, I can’t see any publisher taking that risk.

Shenmue 3 cost in excess of $10m, and even allowing for the cheaper development costs, I think it would take at least $5m to produce a fourth game. I don’t see any indication that a fourth game has the potential to sell five times as many copies on a smaller budget.
 
I always thought, no matter how long the wait would be, that we'd eventually get Shenmue III. If the story isn't finished (haven't installed it, let alone started it) then we'll obviously - again though, eventually - get that too. Some of us might be dead like, but still.
 
I would back a kickstarter for IV but can imagine it won't be as successful as III.

I wonder if the series is better served as a digital only $30-40 game with a Limited Run Games physical release @$60. It could be kinder to the metacritic and expectations. Perhaps some more impulse buys and no EGS exclusivity nonsense, release on steam on day 1. Maybe release 3 more smaller digital games instead of 2 more bigger games on physical media.

This might sound crazy but I think as long as Shenmue IV is well received by fans and critics and does its "Shenmue things" that it can sell better than Shenmue III. Not saying it'll be a super big hit, but people can get over the obstacle of not playing prior games in a series if they're interested in the current game.
 
What about the idea of an.....expansion?

Monster Hunter World does this, FF XIV as well (though thats an MMO but still).

So would an expansion be off the table?

Or future season passes that open up new areas and stories? basically furthering the game digitally if they dont have the proper funds to make a whole dedicated physical separate game in its entirety?
 
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