Lucky Hit - which board should you play?

[DigitalDuck]

So over the last six months I've been doing a bit of Lucky Hit.

Oh, did I say a bit? With the help of gluemp (a friend of mine), and the support of 7thAce and ycarcomed on Twitch, we've dropped the ball a total of about 48000 times on 42 different boards across Aberdeen and Wan Chai, with the sole purpose of working out which boards perform best.

I numbered the boards 1-42, such that each vendor has a set of boards with consecutive numbers increasing from left to right. This is mostly for the purposes of referring to the boards in shorthand.

Results

Let's get some graphs in here, starting with the per-board summaries and pocket densities.

Summaries

That's a lot of information. Here's the part that you're interested in:

The probabilities of winning each game:

Board 5 has the highest win rate, at 65.6%
Board 29 has the lowest win rate, at 6.7%

The amount of money earned per game:

Board 17 has the highest expected earnings, at $25.08
Board 27 has the lowest expected earnings, at -$29.68

The expected return, where 100% is breaking even (RTP):

Board 17 has the highest RTP, at 350.8%
Boards 27 and 40 are tied for the lowest RTP, at 40.6%

Conclusion

If you want to make money fast in Aberdeen and Wan Chai, go to this guy:

Next year we do Kowloon...

 

[DigitalDuck]

Full list of results in text form for every board:

Board 1. Circle One - Bet: $10 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 24.7% - Earns: -$5.05 - RTP: 49.4%
(1 - O) 100
(2 - X) 491
(3 - X) 99
(4 - X) 312
(5 - X) 106

Board 2. Circle One - Bet: $20 - Odds: x3 - Wins: 17.5% - Earns: -$9.47 - RTP: 52.6%
(1 - O) 73
(2 - X) 101
(3 - X) 56
(4 - X) 258
(5 - X) 220
(6 - X) 127
(7 - X) 164
(8 - X) 174

Board 3. Circle One - Bet: $10 - Odds: x3 - Wins: 29.1% - Earns: -$1.26 - RTP: 87.3%
(1 - X) 129
(2 - X) 76
(3 - X) 194
(4 - X) 206
(5 - O) 150
(6 - X) 280
(7 - X) 75
(8 - X) 275

Board 4. Circle One - Bet: $5 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 28.7% - Earns: -$2.12 - RTP: 57.5%
(1 - X) 51
(2 - X) 229
(3 - X) 334
(4 - O) 147
(5 - X) 317
(6 - X) 259
(7 - X) 39

Board 5. Circle One - Bet: $20 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 65.6% - Earns: $6.22 - RTP: 131.1%
(1 - X) 122
(2 - X) 354
(3 - O) 407
(4 - X) 359
(5 - X) 119

Board 6. Circle One - Bet: $10 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 27.3% - Earns: -$4.53 - RTP: 54.6%
(1 - X) 216
(2 - X) 386
(3 - X) 315
(4 - X) 269
(5 - O) 133

Board 7. Circle One - Bet: $20 - Odds: x3 - Wins: 49.7% - Earns: $9.83 - RTP: 149.2%
(1 - X) 0
(2 - X) 1
(3 - X) 183
(4 - X) 76
(5 - X) 67
(6 - X) 635
(7 - O) 264
(8 - X) 63

Board 8. Circle One - Bet: $10 - Odds: x3 - Wins: 27.9% - Earns: -$1.63 - RTP: 83.6%
(1 - X) 200
(2 - X) 38
(3 - X) 225
(4 - X) 108
(5 - O) 119
(6 - X) 244
(7 - X) 35
(8 - X) 185

Board 9. One Shot - Bet: $10 - Odds: x3 - Wins: 31.2% - Earns: -$0.63 - RTP: 93.6%
(1 - X) 79
(2 - O) 134
(3 - X) 136
(4 - X) 138
(5 - X) 136
(6 - O) 130
(7 - X) 93

Board 10. One Shot - Bet: $5 - Odds: x6 - Wins: 18.0% - Earns: $0.41 - RTP: 108.2%
(1 - X) 115
(2 - O) 160
(3 - X) 166
(4 - X) 170
(5 - X) 155
(6 - X) 121

Board 11. One Shot - Bet: $10 - Odds: x5 - Wins: 27.3% - Earns: $3.67 - RTP: 136.7%
(1 - X) 158
(2 - O) 222
(3 - X) 83
(4 - X) 189
(5 - X) 160

Board 12. One Shot - Bet: $5 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 63.8% - Earns: $1.38 - RTP: 127.7%
(1 - X) 186
(2 - O) 332
(3 - X) 189
(4 - O) 330

Board 13. One Shot - Bet: $10 - Odds: x3 - Wins: 26.1% - Earns: -$2.16 - RTP: 78.3%
(1 - X) 118
(2 - O) 165
(3 - X) 223
(4 - X) 76
(5 - X) 184
(6 - X) 166
(7 - O) 106

Board 14. One Shot - Bet: $5 - Odds: x6 - Wins: 22.7% - Earns: $1.81 - RTP: 136.3%
(1 - X) 18
(2 - O) 221
(3 - X) 458
(4 - X) 55
(5 - X) 212
(6 - X) 9

Board 15. One Shot - Bet: $10 - Odds: x5 - Wins: 18.6% - Earns: -$0.70 - RTP: 92.9%
(1 - X) 211
(2 - X) 398
(3 - O) 199
(4 - X) 151
(5 - X) 112

Board 16. One Shot - Bet: $10 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 53.6% - Earns: $0.71 - RTP: 107.1%
(1 - X) 95
(2 - O) 402
(3 - X) 335
(4 - O) 94

Board 17. Take Two - Bet: $10 - Odds: x12 - Wins: 29.2% - Earns: $25.08 - RTP: 350.8%
(1 - X) 37
(2 - X) 102
(3 - O) 406
(4 - X) 453
(5 - X) 114
(6 - X) 23

Board 18. Take Two - Bet: $50 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 51.2% - Earns: $1.19 - RTP: 102.4%
(1 - X) 180
(2 - O) 152
(3 - X) 152
(4 - O) 220
(5 - X) 209
(6 - O) 128
(7 - X) 144
(8 - O) 207

Board 19. Take Two - Bet: $20 - Odds: x5 - Wins: 16.3% - Earns: -$3.71 - RTP: 81.4%
(1 - O) 283
(2 - X) 58
(3 - X) 24
(4 - X) 584
(5 - X) 24
(6 - O) 50
(7 - X) 279

Board 20. Take Two - Bet: $50 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 53.2% - Earns: $3.23 - RTP: 106.5%
(1 - O) 183
(2 - X) 511
(3 - X) 177
(4 - O) 567

Board 21. One Shot - Bet: $20 - Odds: x6 - Wins: 16.3% - Earns: -$0.49 - RTP: 97.5%
(1 - X) 139
(2 - O) 137
(3 - X) 145
(4 - X) 132
(5 - X) 151
(6 - X) 139

Board 22. One Shot - Bet: $50 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 50.1% - Earns: $0.05 - RTP: 100.1%
(1 - X) 234
(2 - O) 218
(3 - X) 240
(4 - O) 257

Board 23. Take Two - Bet: $10 - Odds: x12 - Wins: 11.8% - Earns: $4.11 - RTP: 141.1%
(1 - O) 276
(2 - X) 202
(3 - X) 170
(4 - X) 192
(5 - X) 208
(6 - X) 243

Board 24. Take Two - Bet: $20 - Odds: x5 - Wins: 10.4% - Earns: -$9.58 - RTP: 52.1%
(1 - O) 133
(2 - X) 267
(3 - X) 215
(4 - X) 150
(5 - X) 218
(6 - X) 237
(7 - O) 139

Board 25. One Shot - Bet: $20 - Odds: x6 - Wins: 24.1% - Earns: $8.93 - RTP: 144.7%
(1 - O) 251
(2 - X) 149
(3 - X) 194
(4 - X) 179
(5 - X) 148
(6 - X) 120

Board 26. One Shot - Bet: $10 - Odds: x8 - Wins: 11.0% - Earns: -$1.20 - RTP: 87.9%
(1 - X) 128
(2 - X) 186
(3 - X) 244
(4 - O) 157
(5 - X) 185
(6 - X) 212
(7 - X) 173
(8 - X) 144

Board 27. Circle One - Bet: $50 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 20.3% - Earns: -$29.68 - RTP: 40.6%
(1 - O) 79
(2 - X) 295
(3 - X) 292
(4 - X) 300
(5 - X) 118

Board 28. Circle One - Bet: $20 - Odds: x3 - Wins: 26.0% - Earns: -$4.39 - RTP: 78.0%
(1 - X) 324
(2 - O) 128
(3 - X) 191
(4 - X) 38
(5 - X) 31
(6 - X) 168
(7 - X) 146
(8 - X) 314

Board 29. Perfect - Bet: $10 - Odds: x12 - Wins: 6.7% - Earns: -$1.96 - RTP: 80.3%
(1 - X) 73
(2 - O) 87
(3 - X) 276
(4 - O) 311
(5 - X) 301
(6 - O) 83
(7 - X) 54

Board 30. Perfect - Bet: $20 - Odds: x3 - Wins: 21.4% - Earns: -$7.17 - RTP: 64.1%
(1 - O) 79
(2 - X) 96
(3 - O) 160
(4 - O) 429
(5 - O) 81
(6 - X) 408

Board 31. Take Two - Bet: $10 - Odds: x12 - Wins: 8.1% - Earns: -$0.28 - RTP: 97.1%
(1 - X) 120
(2 - X) 221
(3 - X) 343
(4 - X) 351
(5 - O) 243
(6 - X) 113

Board 32. Take Two - Bet: $20 - Odds: x5 - Wins: 18.3% - Earns: -$1.66 - RTP: 91.7%
(1 - X) 239
(2 - O) 69
(3 - X) 20
(4 - X) 519
(5 - X) 18
(6 - X) 60
(7 - O) 253

Board 33. Take Two - Bet: $50 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 48.1% - Earns: -$1.85 - RTP: 96.3%
(1 - O) 52
(2 - O) 177
(3 - X) 83
(4 - X) 341
(5 - O) 407
(6 - X) 110
(7 - X) 190
(8 - O) 53

Board 34. Take Two - Bet: $20 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 53.0% - Earns: $1.19 - RTP: 106.0%
(1 - O) 86
(2 - X) 509
(3 - O) 542
(4 - X) 71

Board 35. Circle One - Bet: $50 - Odds: x3 - Wins: 29.3% - Earns: -$6.00 - RTP: 88.0%
(1 - O) 145
(2 - X) 268
(3 - X) 201
(4 - X) 63
(5 - X) 62
(6 - X) 197
(7 - X) 261
(8 - X) 130

Board 36. Circle One - Bet: $20 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 38.6% - Earns: -$4.54 - RTP: 77.2%
(1 - X) 176
(2 - X) 391
(3 - O) 206
(4 - X) 410
(5 - X) 189

Board 37. One Shot - Bet: $20 - Odds: x6 - Wins: 10.4% - Earns: -$7.46 - RTP: 62.6%
(1 - X) 147
(2 - X) 280
(3 - X) 129
(4 - X) 110
(5 - X) 106
(6 - O) 90

Board 38. One Shot - Bet: $50 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 49.6% - Earns: -$0.35 - RTP: 99.3%
(1 - O) 81
(2 - X) 257
(3 - O) 338
(4 - X) 168

Board 39. One Shot - Bet: $10 - Odds: x8 - Wins: 9.2% - Earns: -$2.65 - RTP: 73.4%
(1 - X) 5
(2 - O) 94
(3 - X) 313
(4 - X) 116
(5 - X) 111
(6 - X) 287
(7 - X) 87
(8 - X) 12

Board 40. One Shot - Bet: $20 - Odds: x5 - Wins: 8.1% - Earns: -$11.86 - RTP: 40.6%
(1 - O) 73
(2 - X) 248
(3 - X) 236
(4 - X) 256
(5 - X) 85

Board 41. One Shot - Bet: $50 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 30.2% - Earns: -$19.77 - RTP: 60.4%
(1 - X) 153
(2 - X) 265
(3 - O) 52
(4 - X) 49
(5 - X) 50
(6 - X) 88
(7 - O) 210

Board 42. One Shot - Bet: $20 - Odds: x2 - Wins: 49.7% - Earns: -$0.12 - RTP: 99.3%
(1 - O) 68
(2 - X) 459
(3 - O) 461
(4 - X) 77

 

[Benwahwah]

Wow, this is cool.

To maintain fairness I'm guessing that you drop from the centre each time right?

 

[red]

amazing work.

 

[shadowman16]

Awesome job. I spent loads of time playing Lucky Hit in my latest Shenmue 2 playthrough, got quite addicted to it actually. The different boards an rule sets were a blast to experience as I worked my way through the game. That dural board should be shot into the sun though.

 

[Vivi-gamer]

My Go To Lucky Hit board is at Lotus Park where you can win the KID Gold Durals

 

[Nigel]

Nigel, pre-dojo:
You scoundrel, do you know nothing of board 7?

Nigel, prior to this thread:
Ah yes, if I endure one night with the creepy cardboard Confucius in the pier, I can make bank on board 5 before work

Nigel, avoiding spoilers till tomorrow eve:
Oh, hello, [looked up the bookie's name but grew sleepy]

 

[DigitalDuck]

Wow, this is cool.

To maintain fairness I'm guessing that you drop from the centre each time right?

Yup, this is purely drops from the centre each time. Once we've done all the boards in Shenmue II (and III) then we'll go back and see what effect dropping from the extreme left/right has (as those are the only other two spots we can guarantee precision), but from some preliminary tests it only has any real effect on a few boards.

My Go To Lucky Hit board is at Lotus Park where you can win the KID Gold Durals

We didn't count the Gacha/Gotcha boards in this instance because of the lack of well-defined cash prizes. It's easy enough to do with a change of format, but because of this change of format I wanted to do them separately - we'll get round to them eventually.

 

[BlueMue]

Wow this is incredibly work. Truly a huge amount of dedication went into this.
I'd just like one extra statistic and that is where and how often balls got stuck.

 

[DigitalDuck]

Wow this is incredibly work. Truly a huge amount of dedication went into this.
I'd just like one extra statistic and that is where and how often balls got stuck.

The ball got stuck exactly once throughout the 48k drops, on one of the boards 9-12 (I didn't record which, I only remember the vendor that gave the dialogue).

 

[BlueMue]

Wow that is way less than I'd imagined. Really shows well how rare this occurance is.

 

[jasonorme666]

I usually go with Onslow at the bottom