Shenmue 3 Sales

Status
Not open for further replies.

24Nathan

Joined: Fri Apr 09, 2004 11:13 pm
Joined
Jul 27, 2018
Location
US
Please, do tell...



Nothing’s changed since February 15th. Gamestat’s methodology means getting an accurate figure for a niche game is practically impossible, which is why I’m not using their estimate of 68,000 anywhere in my calculations.

What I do consider to be fairly useful is that of their captured sample of 5,000 or so active players, 22% are based in Japan, which is in keeping with the sales figures we saw from Shenmue 1/2.


You should tell that to the professional analysts working on behalf of multi-million dollar investment banks who use it as a resource for revenue projections.
Or, we could ask Embracer, who had that whole report made up saying Shenmue III tanked Deep Silver's financial projections. How accurate did that projection turn out to be, based on Gamstat?

I'm not saying every single thing on there is completely falsified. But you say the 68k number is flawed, and then use the data that Gamstat "extrapolates" to get to that number?

tomboz said:
You should tell that to the professional analysts working on behalf of multi-million dollar investment banks who use it as a resource for revenue projections.
And who would that be?
 
Joined
Aug 22, 2018
Location
Japan
Favourite title
Shenmue II
Or, we could ask Embracer, who had that whole report made up saying Shenmue III tanked Deep Silver's financial projections. How accurate did that projection turn out to be, based on Gamstat?
Im sorry, but what on earth do Embracer / Deep Silver have to do with Shenmue 1/2 HD sales figures?

As for how accurate the projection was, revenue generated by Deep Silver was actually still significantly lower than the report projected, so you’re right, it wasn’t very accurate. Again, at no point have I said that it was.

I'm not saying every single thing on there is completely falsified. But you say the 68k number is flawed, and then use the data that Gamstat "extrapolates" to get to that number?
One set of data is a pool containing 7 million accounts, of which 5,000 are relevant. The other set of data is a pool of 5,000 accounts, all of which are relevant. I think it should be very clear why one is more reliable than the other.

And who would that be?
The author of the report you just brought up, for one. It was written by an analyst working at an investment bank.
 
Joined
Mar 11, 2020
Favourite title
Shenmue II
Currently playing
Shin Megami Tensei II, Ryu ga Gotoku 3
I might be more inclined to trust Gamstat if it could be verified that the site owner is actually (crucially) using a stratified random sample, and his population estimates for total PSN accounts make me suspicious. His explanation says it's "representative," and a sample size of approximately 7.5 million, but I have no reason to trust that without knowing that his methodologies will actually remove bias. At any rate, by his own admission, the numbers for games with physical releases (and I guess digital releases in certain countries now, right?) become more inaccurate for overall sales the more time passes, because there's no way to control for the secondary market.
 
Joined
Jul 24, 2018
Favourite title
Shenmue
Currently playing
Sunset Overdrive
If Deep Silver said Shenmue 3 did "fine" financially, to me that means it didn't bomb. But it means it wasn't a big success either.
So a Shenmue 4 is 50/50. Pretty sure Cedric said this too, no?
So yeah. That's really all we know and I don't think messing about with numbers on some website is going to change anything.
 
Joined
Jun 11, 2019
If Deep Silver said Shenmue 3 did "fine" financially, to me that means it didn't bomb. But it means it wasn't a big success either.
So a Shenmue 4 is 50/50. Pretty sure Cedric said this too, no?
So yeah. That's really all we know and I don't think messing about with numbers on some website is going to change anything.
Shenmue 3 was 50/50 from 2002-2015.

We're in the same position we were in after Shenmue 2, except this time with Shenmue 4 everything relies on Deep Silver instead of Sega.
 

spud1897

Site Staff
Joined
Jul 24, 2018
Location
England
Favourite title
Shenmue II
Currently playing
Destiny 2, Shenmue HD ;)
PSN
spud19870
Shenmue 3 was 50/50 from 2002-2015.

We're in the same position we were in after Shenmue 2, except this time with Shenmue 4 everything relies on Deep Silver instead of Sega.
From 2002-2006 I'd agree. Beyond that it was dead in the water. Hence the magnitude of the E3 announcement.

Beyond 2006 the chances were less and less until the #saveshenmue and #giveyutheshenmuelicence tweetathon and even then traction was only properly gained after the building the list campaign Sony did.

Not everything relies on Deep Silver. There might be other publishers interested. Hell who is to say YSNET want anything to do with Deep Silver after the generally botched launch and controversy they brought?
 
Last edited:

Sput

THE REAL FOLK SHENMUE
Joined
Oct 26, 2018
Location
Argentina
Favourite title
Shenmue II
Currently playing
Kingdom Come Deliverance
Steam
senatuspopulusque/Sputnika
2002: no
2003: no
2004: no
2005: no
2006: no
2007: no
2008: no
2009: no
2010: no
2011: no
2012: no
2013: no
2014: no
2015: yes

2002-2015 50/50, ladies and gentleman!

Please don't stop. Another great user, provided me a lot of laughs. U guys rock. I love you both of you. Btw where is the other guy. Like three days without throwing bullshit, I'm starting to miss him!!
 

24Nathan

Joined: Fri Apr 09, 2004 11:13 pm
Joined
Jul 27, 2018
Location
US
Im sorry, but what on earth do Embracer / Deep Silver have to do with Shenmue 1/2 HD sales figures?
I'm talking about Shenmue III. If the sales were accurate for I & II back then by doing actual math, then fair game.

tomboz said:
As for how accurate the projection was, revenue generated by Deep Silver was actually still significantly lower than the report projected, so you’re right, it wasn’t very accurate. Again, at no point have I said that it was.
And not so much due to Shenmue, from page 4 of the release: https://www.introduce.se/foretag/embracer-group/Equity-research/2020/1/embracer-group---seasonally-strong-quarter-ahead/

Due mostly to the delayed FFVII Remake and Biomutant: "One of the largest changes to our pipeline, and financial, estimates comes in the form of Square Enix’s delayed release of its Final Fantasy VII remake. The game was initially for release in March ’20, but is now slated for an April ’20 release2 , which moves the game into Embracer’s next financial year ".

tomboz said:
One set of data is a pool containing 7 million accounts, of which 5,000 are relevant. The other set of data is a pool of 5,000 accounts, all of which are relevant. I think it should be very clear why one is more reliable than the other.
But if you don't think the site's 68k number is reliable, you can't believe the smaller number is reliable either. Because in the guy's own words, all of that data is linked. He extrapolates total players based on that small sample. You can't buy into any of it unless you buy into all of it.

[quote'"tomboz"]The author of the report you just brought up, for one. It was written by an analyst working at an investment bank.
[/QUOTE]
And again, we see how accurate that turned out to be. You asserted the point, the onus is on you to provide actual proof. Who else uses this site for that purpose? It doesn't seem to be a case of "Gamstat has proven to be reliable, we use this for ALL of our financial reports", more like "copy and paste from gaming site x". I mean, look at his numbers...not even 500 Twitter followers, and 13 patrons on Patreon. Everything starts somewhere, but this isn't even some website that's been out for years on end, it's a guy who got inspiration on Reddit from some year and a half old Sony numbers. He himself admits that sometimes he can get things wildly wrong.

Unless I'm missing something, the numbers he is using are assuming nothing changes with regards to total player count. He says on his "how this works" page that literally any game before or after the MyPS4Life leak can be tracked using only those numbers. If you're sample size of 7.5 million is slowly becoming a smaller piece of the pie (it is, as PS4s continue to sell), then those numbers are going to be consistently more and more wrong and incomplete. That leaked data is from almost a year and a half ago. Again, unless I am missing something (which may be the case, I'm not perfect and will admit when I'm wrong), this data can only grow to be more obsolete as the number of console sales increase, PSN accounts increase, etc. If there were 90 million PSN accounts that he gets his sample size from in December 2018, then where has that number gone by now? How are the calculations for total players, sample players, etc. still accurate? These are the things that keep my up at night.
 
Joined
Jun 11, 2019
2002: no
2003: no
2004: no
2005: no
2006: no
2007: no
2008: no
2009: no
2010: no
2011: no
2012: no
2013: no
2014: no
2015: yes

2002-2015 50/50, ladies and gentleman!

Please don't stop. Another great user, provided me a lot of laughs. U guys rock. I love you both of you. Btw where is the other guy. Like three days without throwing bullshit, I'm starting to miss him!!
You don't know what 50/50 means.
 

Sput

THE REAL FOLK SHENMUE
Joined
Oct 26, 2018
Location
Argentina
Favourite title
Shenmue II
Currently playing
Kingdom Come Deliverance
Steam
senatuspopulusque/Sputnika
Why you say that to me mate, I told you, it was 50/50. You're right! Keep it up buddy!
 
Joined
Nov 23, 2019
2002: no
2003: no
2004: no
2005: no
2006: no
2007: no
2008: no
2009: no
2010: no
2011: no
2012: no
2013: no
2014: no
2015: yes

2002-2015 50/50, ladies and gentleman!
That's not how math works. I flipped a coin and it landed on heads 14 times in a row: that does not mean the odds were not 50/50.
 
Joined
Nov 17, 2019
I got Shenmue 1 out of the first japanese shipment in 1999. And it was my number 1 game ever since I watched Project Berkley, the CD which came with my copy of Virtua Fighter 3tb, also japanese. So this is coming from a FAN, but...

Shenmue 4 is NOT 50/50.

It is NOT happenning... period! Guys, don't be delusional. If we keep this up we'll never gonna get the rest of the story in any form. Let Yu Suzuki tell his story in book form. We'll buy that, and if it is good enough it will sell a ton, and THEN we'll get Shenmue 4.

It's never gonna happen if we keep holding out like this. Sorry...
 
Joined
Mar 11, 2020
Favourite title
Shenmue II
Currently playing
Shin Megami Tensei II, Ryu ga Gotoku 3
That's not how math works. I flipped a coin and it landed on heads 14 times in a row: that does not mean the odds were not 50/50.
Very well put, but would you also like to let everyone know what the probability of flipping a coin 14 times and getting heads on every one of them would be?
It's 1/2 to the power of 14, or 61 ppm: 0.0061%
A greater sample size will give a more accurate estimator, but it is quite unlikely for a sample like what Sput posted to represent a process with a success rate of 50%.
 
Joined
Aug 22, 2018
Location
Japan
Favourite title
Shenmue II
And not so much due to Shenmue, from page 4 of the release: https://www.introduce.se/foretag/embracer-group/Equity-research/2020/1/embracer-group---seasonally-strong-quarter-ahead/

Due mostly to the delayed FFVII Remake and Biomutant: "One of the largest changes to our pipeline, and financial, estimates comes in the form of Square Enix’s delayed release of its Final Fantasy VII remake. The game was initially for release in March ’20, but is now slated for an April ’20 release2 , which moves the game into Embracer’s next financial year ".
Final Fantasy VIIR falls under their ‘partner publishing’ and as such, any decrease would not affect the ‘Deep Silver’ section of the breakdown.

The projection from ABG Sundal Collier predicted Q3 revenue of SEK550m for Deep Silver and SEK600m for partner publishing (both of which were revised estimates based on Shenmue 3’s performance and FFVIIR’s delay respectively). Embracer’s financial report shows that Deep Silver actual revenue for the quarter was SEK466.6m and the partner publishing arm of the business generates SEK672.9m.

But if you don't think the site's 68k number is reliable, you can't believe the smaller number is reliable either. Because in the guy's own words, all of that data is linked. He extrapolates total players based on that small sample. You can't buy into any of it unless you buy into all of it.
The larger number is an estimate based upon extrapolation whilst the smaller number is a sample group of 5,000 players all of whom meet the criteria of having played Shenmue 3.

Think of it this way. You go to a big party with your friend and there are 500 women and 10,000 men there. 85 of the 500 women have blue eyes and so you calculate that the chance of having blue eyes is around 17%, which is in keeping with most estimates. Your friend argues that due to the ratio of men to women at the party, that only 4.8% of the world’s population are female. Your friend is clearly wrong, but just because he is wrong doesn’t make your earlier observation wrong.

And again, we see how accurate that turned out to be. You asserted the point, the onus is on you to provide actual proof.
I’m sorry, but I’m not going to scour through pages of financial reports simply to appease your lack of understanding. I made the argument that trained financial analysts commissioned by publishing companies and investor groups to provide financial forecasts used Gamestat and provided an example (Just for good measure, here is another). Their estimate for Shenmue 3 is clearly wrong, but that doesn’t mean that there is no value to their data and the fact that multiple analysts use it backs this up. You’re welcome to disagree.
 

B-Man

Joined: July 2003
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Location
The Twilight Zone
You don't know what 50/50 means.
That's not how math works. I flipped a coin and it landed on heads 14 times in a row: that does not mean the odds were not 50/50.
Neither of you know what 50/50 means or how math works either if you think that there was a 50/50 chance of Shenmue III existing during the entirety of 2001-2015 just because there was a total of two possibilities. The odds of a coin landing on heads is 50/50 because there is an equal chance of it landing on either of the two sides each time it's flipped.

By your logic, the odds of me having sex with Scarlett Johansson next year are 50/50. After all, there are exactly two possible outcomes: either it will happen or it won't.
 
Joined
Nov 23, 2019
By your logic, the odds of me having sex with Scarlett Johansson next year are 50/50. After all, there are exactly two possible outcomes: either it will happen or it won't.
First of all, that's not what I said: S3's odds were not 50/50; neither are S4's. But if you think the argument laid out by @Sput was a refutation of what 50/50 means then you have no business schooling anyone on math.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top