When making guesses about sales numbers it should be remembered that Shenmue 3 has Chinese language versions as well, and we have no idea how well it's selling on that potentially huge market.
But, if you google Shenmue in English, you get 6 million results, while googling Shenmue in Chinese (莎木) brings 4 million results. It doesn't say anything definitive about sales, but there's clearly a Chinese language fanbase out there and you can find PS4 copies being sold at Chinese online stores.
Unfortunately my Chinese language ability is only at a beginner level, so I can only manage a cursory look into the Chinese internet.
Unfortunately the Chinese market is the one we are certain of. As the game still isn’t officially on sale in China, we’re looking at a big fat 0. Some PS4 copies might have been imported from Hong Kong, but I can’t imagine it’s a substantial amount. The digital version has been pirated quite a lot though by the looks of things.
Growth for the 9th (2 days):
PSN Profiles: 1399->1430 (+2.2%).
True Trophies: 1221->1238 (+1.4%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2561->2580 (+0.7%)
Exophase: 1390->1408 (+1.3%).
1 month growth (12/10 - 01/09)
PSN Profiles: 851->1430 (+68%).
True Trophies: 956->1238 (+29%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 1900->2580 (+36%).
Growth for the 10th;
PSN Profiles: 1430->1452 (+1.5%).
True Trophies: 1238->1240 (+0.2%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2580->2595 (+0.6%)
Exophase: 1408->1411 (+0.2%).
Growth for the 12th (2 days):
PSN Profiles: 1452->1481 (+2%).
True Trophies: 1240->1247 (+0.6%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2595->2630 (+1.3%)
Exophase: 1411->1420 (+0.6%).
Growth for the 13th:
PSN Profiles: 1481->1501 (+1.4%).
True Trophies: 1247->1256 (+0.7%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2630->2645 (+0.6%)
Exophase: 1420->1430 (+0.7%).
Growth for the 14th:
PSN Profiles: 1501->1515 (+0.9%).
True Trophies: 1256->1260 (+0.3%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2645->2676 (+1.2%)
Exophase: 1430->1434 (+0.3%).
Growth for the 15th:
PSN Profiles: 1515->1533 (+1.2%).
True Trophies: 1260->1267 (+0.6%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2676->2676 (=)
Exophase: 1434->1443 (+0.6%).