Im sorry, but what on earth do Embracer / Deep Silver have to do with Shenmue 1/2 HD sales figures?
I'm talking about Shenmue III. If the sales were accurate for I & II back then by doing actual math, then fair game.
tomboz said:
As for how accurate the projection was, revenue generated by Deep Silver was actually still significantly lower than the report projected, so you’re right, it wasn’t very accurate. Again, at no point have I said that it was.
And not so much due to Shenmue, from page 4 of the release:
https://www.introduce.se/foretag/em...acer-group---seasonally-strong-quarter-ahead/
Due mostly to the delayed FFVII Remake and Biomutant: "One of the largest changes to our pipeline, and financial, estimates comes in the form of Square Enix’s delayed release of its Final Fantasy VII remake. The game was initially for release in March ’20, but is now slated for an April ’20 release2 , which moves the game into Embracer’s next financial year ".
tomboz said:
One set of data is a pool containing 7 million accounts, of which 5,000 are relevant. The other set of data is a pool of 5,000 accounts, all of which are relevant. I think it should be very clear why one is more reliable than the other.
But if you don't think the site's 68k number is reliable, you can't believe the smaller number is reliable either. Because in the guy's own words, all of that data is linked. He extrapolates total players based on that small sample. You can't buy into any of it unless you buy into all of it.
[quote'"tomboz"]The author of the report you just brought up, for one. It was written by an analyst working at an investment bank.
[/QUOTE]
And again, we see how accurate that turned out to be. You asserted the point, the onus is on you to provide actual proof. Who else uses this site for that purpose? It doesn't seem to be a case of "Gamstat has proven to be reliable, we use this for ALL of our financial reports", more like "copy and paste from gaming site x". I mean, look at his numbers...not even 500 Twitter followers, and 13 patrons on Patreon. Everything starts somewhere, but this isn't even some website that's been out for years on end, it's a guy who got inspiration on Reddit from some year and a half old Sony numbers. He himself admits that sometimes he can get things wildly wrong.
Unless I'm missing something, the numbers he is using are assuming nothing changes with regards to total player count. He says on his "how this works" page that literally any game before or after the MyPS4Life leak can be tracked using only those numbers. If you're sample size of 7.5 million is slowly becoming a smaller piece of the pie (it is, as PS4s continue to sell), then those numbers are going to be consistently more and more wrong and incomplete. That leaked data is from almost a year and a half ago. Again, unless I am missing something (which may be the case, I'm not perfect and will admit when I'm wrong), this data can only grow to be more obsolete as the number of console sales increase, PSN accounts increase, etc. If there were 90 million PSN accounts that he gets his sample size from in December 2018, then where has that number gone by now? How are the calculations for total players, sample players, etc. still accurate? These are the things that keep my up at night.