SHENMUE III SALES ~PROJECTION POLL THREAD~

[Van Joel Sandwich]

Hi.
There is a thread regarding this topic already in the forum I know that.
But the idea of making a poll and watch the results of all the members of the forum voting is quite interesting.
Some are optimistic, others not so much.
It will be interesting to see the percentages of the various quantities.

This is a fascinating topic to speculate about.

let's see if we reach a consensus!

VOTE!

 

[BruceWayne911]

2 million+

 

[Rakim]

I voted for 1 million cuz if you mean lifetime sales I think it'll easily do a milli, but I don't think it'll do that much first week or first month. First week/month I could see it selling as much as 600k, though.

 

[Benwahwah]

2 million+

Listen to this guy, most of those purchases will be his.

 

[BruceWayne911]

Bro if I were a millionaire...let's just say Shenmue 4 would be already confirmed?

 

[Zoltor]

If It's overall, and not just at launch, I say way more then 1m. I suspect it will sell between 3-4m, and that's it it doesn't blow up(remember the internet is the information super highway these days).

 

[Dietsoap]

I'm too much of a bitch nigga to solidify my guesstimate just yet. It'll be really cool to look back at this thread after some time, though.

 

[Gevaudian]

its hard to compare it to anything, dragonquest 11 sold around 4 million copies world wide and i think yakuza kiwami sold a few 100,000 copies so my guess would be anywhere between there

 

[taciturngreyhound]

At least 1M. Why hope for any less right?

 

[jsh020]

300K is my bet, I think it will have its die hards but its ultimately going to have a tough time attracting any sizable influx of new fans with the negative press of some of the "controversy" surrounding the game souring stuff for some potential buyers, and is gonna be lost under the weight of other major releases coming up.

I hope to be proven wrong, but I absolutely expect this game to flop, there's hope if the game reviews pretty well though.

 

[RunningWolf]

300K is my bet, I think it will have its die hards but its ultimately going to have a tough time attracting any sizable influx of new fans with the negative press of some of the "controversy" surrounding the game souring stuff for some potential buyers, and is gonna be lost under the weight of other major releases coming up.

I hope to be proven wrong, but I absolutely expect this game to flop, there's hope if the game reviews pretty well though.

That's why I wanted the story to end with shenmue 3. All those cry babies on YouTube made this game look bad. Just because they had to download the game from a different source. Shenmue was never a PC game in the first place! You would think they would be happy to even get the game. Didn't we donate to get the freaking game made! Then they cried about how they wasn't getting the stupid preorder toys. People are so freaking retarded. Personally I stopped playing with toys in the 4th grade... I wish I could punch all those people in the face...

 

[Down by Law]

Yeah I think we need some distinction over time. I went with 500K, I believe that's an achievable amount in say, the first six months. 1 million is doable but I'd say over the course of a year.

 

[Van Joel Sandwich]

I love seeing this optimism! haha

1 million + would be so great!

I've been analizing game sales from various titles and relate the numbers to google trend search graphics as well as youtube trailers views.
Relating all that, makes me believe that Shenmue 3 will be arround 500k. (at launch at least)
Tho there are many other factores that i'm not considering so this number is not set in stone by any means.

 

[jsh020]

That's why I wanted the story to end with shenmue 3. All those cry babies on YouTube made this game look bad. Just because they had to download the game from a different source. Shenmue was never a PC game in the first place! You would think they would be happy to even get the game. Didn't we donate to get the freaking game made! Then they cried about how they wasn't getting the stupid preorder toys. People are so freaking retarded. Personally I stopped playing with toys in the 4th grade... I wish I could punch all those people in the face...

Id much rather 3 be a great game with no conclusion than to have a rushed disaster that combines 3 games worth of content into one with a lower budget than it really need

I love seeing this optimism! haha

1 million + would be so great!

I've been analizing game sales from various titles and relate the numbers to google trend search graphics as well as youtube trailers views.
Relating all that, makes me believe that Shenmue 3 will be arround 500k. (at launch at least)
Tho there are many other factores that i'm not considering so this number is not set in stone by any means.

Interesting you bring up youtube trailer views as a source for optimism as thats one of the reasons I'm a bit pessimistic over the sales. Trailer views dropped off a cliff hard over time and on top of that even before the epic stuff they typically werent getting all that hot a reception.

we now have the game looking better and the newer stuff dont even top 100K

 

[Van Joel Sandwich]

Interesting you bring up youtube trailer views as a source for optimism as thats one of the reasons I'm a bit pessimistic over the sales. Trailer views dropped off a cliff hard over time and on top of that even before the epic stuff they typically werent getting all that hot a reception.

we now have the game looking better and the newer stuff dont even top 100K

I know man.
And I'm taking that into account.
That's why my sales projection is between 400 and 500k, It can go beyong that tho.
If you go to the official youtube Playstation videos, Shenmue latest trailer is at 135k. the new Yakuza ia a 148k.
Not that different!
Also, most of their videos are bellow 135k anyway.
Ok course fresh trailers from their big games have millions of views.
Tho, in the "indie" spectrum, Shenmue seems to be doing fine!

 

[Van Joel Sandwich]

We have 41 votes so far. Nice!

Keep voting please.

I'll be making an agregate of the total votes in a few days and get an average final number!

Worth noting that Shenmue 1 and 2, after one year, have sold between 300 and 400k copies. (based on VGCHARTZ and STEAMSPY numbers).
I know VGCHARTZ isn't totaly accurate but they must be arround the right numbers, with probably a 20k margin for error, let's give them that.

So the numbers for Shenmue 1 and 2 are the following.
PS4 probably made between 250 000 to 270 000 copies.
Xbox one mede arround 70 000 copies
And STEAM must be arround 35 000. (listed on steamspy with 20 000 to 50 000 owners)

That makes a total of 375 000 copies. (with a presumable 20k margin for error).
That's prety decent considering this was a mere re-release and not a remake or remaster.
The numbers are even better when you consider that the games had kind of a rough launch, due to some bugs, which in most cases got fixed but not totaly. (The sound is still a bit messed up).

Links.
ps4 - http://www.vgchartz.com/game/221914/shenmue-i-amp-ii/?region=All
xboxone - http://www.vgchartz.com/game/221913/shenmue-i-amp-ii/?region=All
Steam - https://steamspy.com/app/758330 (note that the game as 30 000 plus followers on steam.

So Shenmue 3 will no doubt get better numbers.
Why?

1- It's a brand new game.
2 - It has already 80k granted copies from the kickstarter.
3 - It probably has 50 000 to 100 000k copies secured form Epic. (don't really know the number but based on other Epic deals with various other games in the past, its suspected to be between that)
4 - We now have Deep Silver promoting the game and Deep Silver games "tend" to sell reasonably well!
5 - The Hype factor! A new Shenmue game in almost 18 years, one of the most requested sequels of all time.

So when you factor in all that, 500 000k seems pretty achievable.

That alone would be anough for the series to continue, but it's very reasonable to assume that the game will go way past that.

The key factor will be the final game quality, and the consequent reviews.

Ready for the worst, expecting the best!

 

[Benwahwah]

Bro if I were a millionaire...let's just say Shenmue 4 would be already confirmed?

Believe me, I’m exactly the same dude. All in I have spent £1,000 purely on Shenmue 3 versions. (Including Kickstarters)

If I could have afforded to have paid for a higher tier the campaign I definitely would have. I’m just happy I got the Guestbook pledge. So I’ll be ‘in the game’. (I hope)

 

[BruceWayne911]

I really surprised that the Shenmue 1&2 remasters sold that poorly. So for the sake of argument let's just say Shenmue 3 sells poorly. In my mind this really shouldn't effect the future of Shenmue. The game raised 7 million dollars on Kickstarter/Slacker Backer. There is obvious a demand for the game. If anything maybe downgrading the game should be the reasonable option if sells are bad.

I honestly believe with every fiber of my being that this game will sell 1 million copies in the first year easy. I know there has been some online backlash but when the demo dropped the gaming media and fans all had positive things to say. If we can get IGN, Gamespot, Game Informer, PC Gamer, and YouTubers to show favorable to great reviews we are golden. Not to mention LRG and Pix'n Love Collectors Edition selling out reasonably quick.

29 days???

 

[Spaghetti]

I really surprised that the Shenmue 1&2 remasters sold that poorly.

Not saying Joel's numbers are right (VGChartz has a poor rep for accuracy), but it's around the ballpark Yakuza Kiwami 2 sold on PS4.

If they're even approaching that figure, it was probably a financial success for SEGA. I wouldn't say it sold poorly at all if these numbers are even approximately true.

 

[BruceWayne911]

Not saying Joel's numbers are right (VGChartz has a poor rep for accuracy), but it's around the ballpark Yakuza Kiwami 2 sold on PS4.

If they're even approaching that figure, it was probably a financial success for SEGA. I wouldn't say it sold poorly at all if these numbers are even approximately true.

Yeah your right. I guess I'm of that mindset that your game has to sell 1 million copies to be notable. Deep down it feels like Shenmue is that underdog that everyone is rooting for. I wonder how long it will take Yu Suzuki to announce development of Shenmue 4?

29 days ???