Shenmue IV Will Happen - Here's Why!

A thought I had regarding Cedric's tweet about Shenmue IV. Many of us (myself included) think he would have been more coy and less direct if Shenmue IV was in fact in production, but he did misdirect by saying he didn't know anything about the anime announcement, so this could be similar.

We also don't know who would be publishing a potential Shenmue IV, and since Shenmue III isn't released on steam yet, I imagine they wouldn't want to make any announcement or hint about Shenmue IV until some time after the S3 steam release. This could especially be the case if there's a new publisher for Shenmue IV, perhaps there would be some agreement to wait for an announcement, otherwise it could steal some thunder away from the S3 Steam release and upset Deep Silver.

And of course, we always have to respect his NDA's and that there's just gonna be some info he can't share.

 
Tomato Convenience Store said:
A thought I had regarding Cedric's tweet about Shenmue IV. Many of us (myself included) think he would have been more coy and less direct if Shenmue IV was in fact in production, but he did misdirect by saying he didn't know anything about the anime announcement, so this could be similar.

We also don't know who would be publishing a potential Shenmue IV, and since Shenmue III isn't released on steam yet, I imagine they wouldn't want to make any announcement or hint about Shenmue IV until some time after the S3 steam release. This could especially be the case if there's a new publisher for Shenmue IV, perhaps there would be some agreement to wait for an announcement, otherwise it could steal some thunder away from the S3 Steam release and upset Deep Silver.

And of course, we always have to respect his NDA's and that there's just gonna be some info he can't share.

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I really hope you're right!

Perhaps a couple of months after the Steam release, say, at Magic Monaco 2021 (February) we'll hear some news from Cedric or Yu-san about Shenmue IV.
 
tomboz said:
Would fans rather we got two more games with the graphical fidelity of S3 but with better writing and a fully fleshed out story that’s close to Yu’s original vision, one high budget game that rushes the story to wrap it up in a single game or a high quality Shenmue 4 that doesn’t complete the story and may or may not lead to a Shenmue 5?
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Because I care mostly about the story and your first scenario claims to fix that (which may or may not be possible given the budget limitations S3 was working with), and the other two imply it given their "high budget" status, all three scenarios are equally attractive. I don't think S3 is a very good game so I would take scenario 2 and 3 over it in the hopes that the game would be better overall. I don't think it's possible to wrap the game up in 1 game in this day and age but if it is, it would likely need to skip certain story beats/locations to reasonably fit it all in. I think the best option is a Shenmue 4 that is the best game it can be whether or not that secures a Shenmue 5.

What would you pick?
 
iknifaugood said:
Because I care mostly about the story and your first scenario claims to fix that (which may or may not be possible given the budget limitations S3 was working with), and the other two imply it given their "high budget" status, all three scenarios are equally attractive. I don't think S3 is a very good game so I would take scenario 2 and 3 over it in the hopes that the game would be better overall. I don't think it's possible to wrap the game up in 1 game in this day and age but if it is, it would likely need to skip certain story beats/locations to reasonably fit it all in. I think the best option is a Shenmue 4 that is the best game it can be whether or not that secures a Shenmue 5.

What would you pick?
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It’s a tough question, but if it’s true that Yakuza 7’s budget was $21m and Shenmue 3 had a budget of ‘almost $20m’, I’d suggest that Yu and Cedric shouldn’t be seeking a bigger budget and should instead be looking at ways to better utilize the budget available to them. Shenmue 3 really didn’t feel anything like a game with a budget that large.

As for the three scenarios, I’d be torn between them producing 2 mid-budget games and a high budget game that only tells the story of 4.

If I had to pick I’d probably take the risk too, but if they get a $30m+ budget and the game flops, it’s difficult to see them securing funding for a fifth game and they’d probably have to resort to Kickstarter and making the last game on a real shoestring budget. I suppose I’d rather have one more great game and a crappy final game than 2 average games now that I think about it - but it’s a close call.
 
tomboz said:
It’s a tough question, but if it’s true that Yakuza 7’s budget was $21m and Shenmue 3 had a budget of ‘almost $20m’, I’d suggest that Yu and Cedric shouldn’t be seeking a bigger budget and should instead be looking at ways to better utilize the budget available to them. Shenmue 3 really didn’t feel anything like a game with a budget that large.

As for the three scenarios, I’d be torn between them producing 2 mid-budget games and a high budget game that only tells the story of 4.

If I had to pick I’d probably take the risk too, but if they get a $30m+ budget and the game flops, it’s difficult to see them securing funding for a fifth game and they’d probably have to resort to Kickstarter and making the last game on a real shoestring budget. I suppose I’d rather have one more great game and a crappy final game than 2 average games now that I think about it - but it’s a close call.
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I my opinion there is no need for a super high budget and that will be almost impossible to achieve.
I think the Shenmue series as better chance of completion staying as a high quality indie title than trying to be a triple AAA title.
They should use the assets that they have already made in Shenmue 3 to best of their ability and use the remaining budget for the story/cutscenes and gameplay improvents.
This way they maintain a reasonably lower budget that will allow them to turn in a profit.
Trying to have a high budget is unrealistic and unreasonable and reduces the chance of Shenmue 4 being successfull wich also jeopardizes the possible conclusion of the series.
 
Sergeynest said:
I my opinion there is no need for a super high budget and that will be almost impossible to achieve.
I think the Shenmue series as better chance of completion staying as a high quality indie title than trying to be a triple AAA title.
They should use the assets that they have already made in Shenmue 3 to best of their ability and use the remaining budget for the story/cutscenes and gameplay improvents.
This way they maintain a reasonably lower budget that will allow them to turn in a profit.
Trying to have a high budget is unrealistic and unreasonable and reduces the chance of Shenmue 4 being successfull wich also jeopardizes the possible conclusion of the series.
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I agree with all of this, but part of me understands Yu wanting to go big.

The man is used to creating games that redefine genres and implementing new ideas that influence the way that other developers create their games - and so for him to have not only had to compromise his vision for Shenmue 3 from a narrative perspective, but also create a fairly ordinary/generic game couldn’t have been easy for him.

I can kinda see why he wouldn’t be too keen to knock out two more such games if there’s any chance of him being able to get back to a place where he is once again able to innovate - even if him pushing for that means that he might not be able to complete the series.

For us it’s about him making two more games to complete the story, but I suspect there’s much more to it for him.

As I said though, I think he could have gotten a lot more out of Shenmue 3’s budget than he did and wonder whether his 10-15 year hiatus from AAA gaming might have contributed in this regard. Perhaps his experience working on S3 will help to rectify this somewhat moving forwards, but I’d like to see him bring in one or two people with a bit more experience to help guide future projects a little better.
 
tomboz said:
I agree with all of this, but part of me understands Yu wanting to go big.

The man is used to creating games that redefine genres and implementing new ideas that influence the way that other developers create their games - and so for him to have not only had to compromise his vision for Shenmue 3 from a narrative perspective, but also create a fairly ordinary/generic game couldn’t have been easy for him.

I can kinda see why he wouldn’t be too keen to knock out two more such games if there’s any chance of him being able to get back to a place where he is once again able to innovate - even if him pushing for that means that he might not be able to complete the series.

For us it’s about him making two more games to complete the story, but I suspect there’s much more to it for him.

As I said though, I think he could have gotten a lot more out of Shenmue 3’s budget than he did and wonder whether his 10-15 year hiatus from AAA gaming might have contributed in this regard. Perhaps his experience working on S3 will help to rectify this somewhat moving forwards, but I’d like to see him bring in one or two people with a bit more experience to help guide future projects a little better.
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I understand your prespective and if I were to be guided merely by my emotions and feelings as a fan of the Shenmue series
I would also want the highest budget possible for Shenmue 4 & 5.
But we all know deep inside that that is totally impossible and I also believe that both Cedric and Yu Suzuki know this too.
I also believe that the development of Shenmue 3 wasnt easy and had a bumpy road along the way.
The fact that Yu Suzuki being way from the gaming development/industry was also a problem and that some of his team members might not have been the best choice mainly in the scripting and writting department.
I only hope that if Shenmue 4 sees the light of day that Yu Suzuki gets in shape and that he takes his time in developing the game like he did in the first two games so that he can deliver the full Shenmue experience not only to the fans but also the new players alike.
 
Sega should put some love (money) into Shenmue IV. How much more evidence do they need? People vote for Shenmue and it's one of the (if not, their most) loved game series. But yeah I know.. its all from a business perspective.
They could perhaps provide with the right people and technology to improve Shenmue IV to reach modern standards.
I think Shenmue (IV) would gain more popularity with Sega's help, and with the Anime project even more so.

Cedric's tweet felt neither positive nor negative. Well, more at the positive side!
But I try to figure out what he mean. Will the Anime be part of the funding, or is he talking about another kickstarter?
The latter not very likely.
He at least mentions IV and doesn't say it won't happen.
I like that they are taking Shenmue IV more seriously. I get the feeling that they've learned from what worked and what didn't work with III. But we can only wait and see.

Now with the PS5 release and all it feels both like good and bad timing at the same time..
The bad is that the expectations is now incredibly high because if Shenmue IV is going to be made for the PS5 (which is most likely) then Shenmue IV must look like a PS5 game, and not some PS4 game.
Will Sh IV be clouded by the most impressive AAA-titles and left in the unseen?

I just can't see how IV would look like a AAA PS5 game but I do think that it can offer a very unique type of experience since there isn't anything like Shenmue out there. Other things that could attract new gamers is more impressive animations, a very good combat system, and the use of ray-tracing technology.

The good thing is that the PS5 is very, or should I say, extremely developer friendly and now when the new Unreal Engine 5 is here things will change dramatically in both the way games look and how they feel. Bye bye to loading times.

Now Loading ...
 
I dont think Shenmue 4 will be or can be a Kickstarter game.
If Cedric and Yu Suzuki already know that it needs a bigger budget
how would they sell the Shenmue 4 Kickstarter idea to the public?
Like will they appear at E3 2021 or something and say
Hey guys, we want to make part 4 now and we need even more money than last time?
Now imagine other possible changes like maybe they wont even get Sony's main stage for the reveal next time or whatever.

Shenmue 3 had a really really good run with the big surprise reveal with Sony, the Kickstarter record
and then they still got like 10-14 Mil USD on top from Deep Silver / Epic.
So if Shenmue 4 has to follow the same plan and they want a bigger budget
that would mean they have to top the Shenmue 3 production campaign in every way.
Thats sounds super unrealistic.

I could see it work if Deep Silver / Sega / Epic are coming on board with like 20 Mil USD
and they take the Kickstarter money just as a bonus on top for very small things
but i dont think it will work again like it did with Shenmue 3.
Also i doubt that any publisher would accept "just take whatever amount we can get
from KS and we pay for everything else" as a serious market campaign.

So i think either they have to scale down their expectations / goals or they need someone
like Deep Silver / Sega / Epic whos 100% on board right from the start with a fixed big enough budget.
If i would be in a position to do it, i would just ask Deep Silver and Sega to team up officially
and let them throw 10-12 Mil each into the pot, or DS pays for the development and Sega for the marketing etc,
thats the safest route i can think of.
The problem is, even if for example Deep Silver says okay we will give you like 25 Mil USD now
and there is no other big partner or anything, all the risk is on this one publisher,
then what happens if the game flops super hard? We would be stuck in a dead end.
 
I don't think things look good for Shenmue 4.

No way are they gonna get a bigger budget for it after S3 came and went with a whimper.

Shenmue the Animation guarantees we will get closure with the story even if we never get another game.
 
SMDzero said:
Well I’m sure they will complete the story through anime if we don’t get more games.
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I wouldn’t be so sure. Most anime shows don’t make it to a second season - let alone the 4 or 5 it would likely take to get to the end of Shenmue’s story.

Whether or not the Anime concludes the story will be determined by how successful it ends up being, but assuming that it does well enough to make it to a second season, Yu will hopefully be in a strong position in terms of securing funding for a fourth game.
 
Shenmue’s graphics were fine apart from some of the NPCs. It was a decent game but where it fell short for me was the story progression and the fighting. If Shenmue 4 is going to have a singular goal like 3 did(finding Shenhua’s father) there needs to be a much more steady drip of plot about the mirrors, the chiyoumen, the prophecy, how Ryo and Shenhua fit into the prophecy.

I honestly don’t know how two more games can complete this story because the characters we know exist but haven’t even heard about in-game and the places Ryo has to go(judging by the postmortem map) just don’t line up with only two games.
 
SMDzero said:
I don't think things look good for Shenmue 4.

No way are they gonna get a bigger budget for it after S3 came and went with a whimper.

Shenmue the Animation guarantees we will get closure with the story even if we never get another game.
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I get being pessimistic because of the series' history, but Shenmue III didn't quite go with a "whimper". Embracer's CEO said "financially, it did fine" to his shareholders, and that was just with a few months of Epic and PS4 sales. Shenmue I & II preorder numbers surprising SEGA is icing on the cake.
 
Elfshadowreaper said:
Shenmue’s graphics were fine apart from some of the NPCs. It was a decent game but where it fell short for me was the story progression and the fighting. If Shenmue 4 is going to have a singular goal like 3 did(finding Shenhua’s father) there needs to be a much more steady drip of plot about the mirrors, the chiyoumen, the prophecy, how Ryo and Shenhua fit into the prophecy.

I honestly don’t know how two more games can complete this story because the characters we know exist but haven’t even heard about in-game and the places Ryo has to go(judging by the postmortem map) just don’t line up with only two games.
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Yeah that worries me too; I just hope that the last two games don't end up telling the story in a rushly manner GOT style and I really hope they end up tackling all of the unanswered questions that still remain to be answered; like Ziming's, the mysterious scroll that we find in the hazuki dojo, the other Chiyoumen leaders, Iwao and Sun Ming Zhao, etc...
This really worries me considering the budget needed to tackle these story beats with cutscenes and voice acting.
I really hope that if they end up having a decent budget for Shenmue IV that they spend it in the best way possible to deliver us the answeres to all these questions.
 
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