Shenmue Story (Chapter Cards)

ShenSun

Site Staff
Joined
Jul 24, 2018
Greetings Dojo

I was looking at the chapter cards for the Shenmue story and thought it would be fun to speculate where these cards fit in into the actual games. We know there are 5 Shenmue games in total. We also know that story events from each chapter continues to get moved around so nothing is exclusive to one game.

I also believe the whiteboard image below is old and outdated after Shenmue 2

I'll give my theory about the remaining cards below for Shenmue 4 and 5 and place the other cards under the first 3 Shenmue games. Where would you place them?

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am2_4.jpg



Shenmue 1: Japan Arc (Intro To The Series)

In Shenmue 1 we are introduced to the series and witness the murder of Ryo's father. Ryo investigates the people behind the killing and finds himself getting entangled with the notorious Yokosuka gang, The Mad Angels. Ryo leaves Japan and heads to China.

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Shenmue 2 Revenge Arc (Chasing Lan Di & Finding Yuanda Zu)

In Shenmue 2, Ryo chases Lan Di throughout China and searches for a man named Yuanda Zu. He is mentored by master Lishao Tao and works with The Heavens to take down the Yellow Head Gang of Kowloon. The same gang who work with Lan Di's organisation. Ryo then travels to Guilin chasing after Lan Di and meets Shenhua.

shenmue.jpg
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Shenmue 3: Shenhua Story Arc (Find Her Missing Father)

In Shenmue 3, Ryo and Shenhua develop their friendship further as they search Bailu and Niaowu for Shenhua's father. They eventually rescue her dad from the Chiyou Men and Ryo has a fateful encounter with Lan Di, where he loses.

shenmue-iii-complete-edition-cover.jpg
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Shenmue 4: The Chiyou Men Story Arc (Theory)

Baisha? The Cliff Temple? Etc

Ryo, Ren and Shenhua continue to chase the Chiyou Men. We learn about all 4 leaders as Ryo continues to lose to them. He seeks proper training for an extended period of time under a grand master. A time skip occurs

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Shenmue 5: Finale Arc - The End of Shenmue (Theory)

The time skip concludes, Ryo is now a highly skilled marital artist. He takes down the Chiyou men and gives up on his desire for revenge. He comes to peace with his father's death and decides to take a different path, one which includes his friends and loved ones. Ryo's story comes to a close as he sets off on a new journey
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What do you think? And where do you think all of these cards should be placed?
 
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I don't really think that speculating the story based on these cards is a good idea since they might just rewrite some chapters completely.(They may even change the way the whole franchise is going to end.)
 
Great job there; never seen those cards as large in decent quality before--quite useful!

Harmless fun to take our imaginations for a bit of a spin with the only material showing future concepts of any sequels through the entire saga.
 
Shenmue 4: The Chiyou Men Story Arc (Theory)

Baisha? The Cliff Temple? Etc

Ryo, Ren and Shenhua continue to chase the Chiyou Men. We learn about all 4 leaders as Ryo continues to lose to them. He seeks proper training for an extended period of time under a grand master. A time skip occurs

w6oeIQP.png
vyYOuVm.png
hhhZo7l.png

Interesting post, I was reading thread in the old forums and I believe the first image of the train, is chapter in Suzhou which Suzuki has said before was omitted during development of Shenmue 2.

There’s some interesting facts gleamed from that thread. The questions remains, after completion of Shenmue 3 how does Suzuki satisfactorily tie up the narrative and can he do it in one game?
 
The thing that kind of confuses me at this point is that the chapter titles for the manuscripts don't really fit those chapter cards:

Chapter 1: Yokosuka
Chapter 2: Hong Kong
Chapter 3: Suzhou
Chapter 4: Guilin
Chapter 5: Baisha
(Unknown after that, I believe?)

That seems to at least leave out the third chapter card, and I guess would also make me question if the chapter card six is actually Baisha, or what.

At this point, I sort of have this working theory that the white-board chapters are a more segmented form of the chapter cards, which are a more segmented form of the manuscript titles. Even that couldn't be perfect, though, since things were shuffled around as early as Shenmue II.


I guess the one other comment I have is that if there is going to be a time skip, I imagine it takes place in Cangzhou (card number eight), since that seems to be the point where Ryo would actually be training under the Bajiquan masters. Also, I have a feeling this is where Ryo is supposed to learn Mouko Kouhazan.
 
Just some random thoughts but I believe the final story arc will deal with Shenhua's connection to the Qing dynasty with the mirrors being used to open a gateway between present and the past. A huge battle would take place with hoards of Chi You Men initiates and/or ancient warriors of the Qing emperor attacking. Ryo will have to reach his highest level of mastery to fight and beat several major bosses of the series. Shenhua has to master powers to help defeat the heavenly emperor Tentei or Chi You itself.
 
I listed out what locations the title cards refer to in another thread.

My understanding is that Niaowu essentially repurposed the Suzhou chapter (4) story. If we are going based on the 11 VFRPG chapters we would be on Chapter 6 right now. But so much has changed in the story structure I'm not sure any of that applies anymore.

The thing that kind of confuses me at this point is that the chapter titles for the manuscripts don't really fit those chapter cards:

Chapter 1: Yokosuka
Chapter 2: Hong Kong
Chapter 3: Suzhou
Chapter 4: Guilin
Chapter 5: Baisha
(Unknown after that, I believe?)

That seems to at least leave out the third chapter card, and I guess would also make me question if the chapter card six is actually Baisha, or what.

At this point, I sort of have this working theory that the white-board chapters are a more segmented form of the chapter cards, which are a more segmented form of the manuscript titles. Even that couldn't be perfect, though, since things were shuffled around as early as Shenmue II.

The reason they don't fit is because there are contradictory sources. There was a picture showing the chapter booklets with Baisha as chapter 5 but in the VFRPG tiles there is no Baisha and chapter 5 is Guilin. The third chapter (the train) was officially cut from the story (there was an interview where Suzuki said that) I'm assuming because while it may have been a cool set piece it had no real plot advancement in it.

I've never been convinced of that whiteboard picture, especially because Suzuki debunked the 16 chapter myth, but it could relate to another contradictory source that showed the chapters broken down further including the boat and Li river being their own chapters. But is Guilin a different chapter from Bailu now or are they both chapter 4? How does Niaowu fit into the chapter structure?

So where does this leave us now? who knows. I suspect the strict chapter thing has been dropped but there are certain locations that can't be avoided in future games IMO. namely, Luoyang and Cangzhou. If I had to guess S4 will focus on those 2 locations unless further script deviations are made.
 
The reason they don't fit is because there are contradictory sources. There was a picture showing the chapter booklets with Baisha as chapter 5 but in the VFRPG tiles there is no Baisha and chapter 5 is Guilin. The third chapter (the train) was officially cut from the story (there was an interview where Suzuki said that) I'm assuming because while it may have been a cool set piece it had no real plot advancement in it.

I've never been convinced of that whiteboard picture, especially because Suzuki debunked the 16 chapter myth, but it could relate to another contradictory source that showed the chapters broken down further including the boat and Li river being their own chapters. But is Guilin a different chapter from Bailu now or are they both chapter 4? How does Niaowu fit into the chapter structure?

So where does this leave us now? who knows. I suspect the strict chapter thing has been dropped but there are certain locations that can't be avoided in future games IMO. namely, Luoyang and Cangzhou. If I had to guess S4 will focus on those 2 locations unless further script deviations are made.
Yeah, I realize they appear to contradict each other, but I'm suggesting that they aren't necessarily entirely contradictory. I don't really recall the details of the white board outline--I can't remember if this was actually with Yu Suzuki, or just some others in the production staff--but the fact remains that Shenmue 2 did break down its story into 'subchapters' within the notebook. That could have been meant to continue into other chapters. Sort of related, but I have a feeling that the Cliff Temple isn't meant to be a full town location, but something more like the dropped travel 'chapters,' or the old castle segment in Shenmue III.

I think the manuscript chapters still pretty well lay out where the story goes from here, though. What I really meant was that the chapter cards are probably subdivisions of the manuscript chapters. Chapter 3 - Suzhou, for instance, would include both Suzhou and Shanghai. Hong Kong had both Hong Kong proper, and Kowloon. Guilin includes both Bailu, and Niaowu. The question I have then is where Baisha is, and how exactly it fits in. I have to wonder if Baisha was always meant to be a single town with some Tulou, or if the titles are meant to specify regions. From the concept art for Baisha in the Kickstarter, that village would probably have to be somewhere in the area of chapter cards 3 to 8, since Akira is still in the green kenpogi, anyway.

Personally, I don't think we're losing Baisha, at this point. I think the goal for Shenmue IV is probably going to be to have Baisha, Luoyang, and maybe some or all of Cangzhou. Maybe something else inbetween that we've never really known about (like Baisha).
 
Yeah, I realize they appear to contradict each other, but I'm suggesting that they aren't necessarily entirely contradictory. I don't really recall the details of the white board outline--I can't remember if this was actually with Yu Suzuki, or just some others in the production staff--but the fact remains that Shenmue 2 did break down its story into 'subchapters' within the notebook. That could have been meant to continue into other chapters. Sort of related, but I have a feeling that the Cliff Temple isn't meant to be a full town location, but something more like the dropped travel 'chapters,' or the old castle segment in Shenmue III.

I think the manuscript chapters still pretty well lay out where the story goes from here, though. What I really meant was that the chapter cards are probably subdivisions of the manuscript chapters. Chapter 3 - Suzhou, for instance, would include both Suzhou and Shanghai. Hong Kong had both Hong Kong proper, and Kowloon. Guilin includes both Bailu, and Niaowu. The question I have then is where Baisha is, and how exactly it fits in. I have to wonder if Baisha was always meant to be a single town with some Tulou, or if the titles are meant to specify regions. From the concept art for Baisha in the Kickstarter, that village would probably have to be somewhere in the area of chapter cards 3 to 8, since Akira is still in the green kenpogi, anyway.

Personally, I don't think we're losing Baisha, at this point. I think the goal for Shenmue IV is probably going to be to have Baisha, Luoyang, and maybe some or all of Cangzhou. Maybe something else inbetween that we've never really known about (like Baisha).
This thread covers a lot of what we're talking about.

Apologies if this gets long but I think I can break it down here.

It seems like over the years the chapter structure has changed a lot. Originally, there were 11 chapters in what was the novelization of The Legends of Akira or what we call VFRPG. They were given 11 concept arts to correspond with the chapters:


gdc_vfrpg_11chapters.jpg


These all correspond with locations which were written on this map image:

698955.jpg


1) Yokosuka
2) Hong Kong
3) Train
4) Shanghai & Suzhou
5) Guilin
6) Xian
7) Luoyang
8) Cangzhou
9) Inner Mongolia (possibly rural)
10) Beijing (note the map says END, possibly denoting the end of the story)
11) Xinjiang

Somewhere during development of Shenmue this changed. As Shenmue 2 shows the numbered chapters in the notebook being:

1) Yokosuka
2) Hong Kong
3) Kowloon
4) Guilin

Later, during Shenmue Online development, this leaked out:

index.php


Here it shows the chapters being:

1) Yokosuka
2) Genpu Maru, the boat from Japan to China
3) Hong Kong
4) Kowloon
5) Li River
6) Bailu Village

This kind of corresponds to Shenmue 2 if you account for the boat "chapter" being cut. Shenmue 3 would then pick up on chapter 5/6 for Bailu village. This may account for the stories of Shenmue having 16 chapters rather than 11. It could be that the original 11 chapters were broken down further during development as they got more ideas to make more sections playable and things expanded.

It also loosely corresponds to the whiteboard image:

am2_4.jpg


Which I never put much stock into. It was apparently from a Sega employee leak who remained anonymous (not Suzuki), but I always thought it was bunk since anyone can write on a board. But this could be accurate corresponding to the 16 chapter outline vs the 11.

Shenmue Online also had this image which mentions Seoul and Busan, but it was probably just promotional trying to appeal to a Korean audience:

index.php


So where does that leave Baisha? Well there was another image which came out during Shenmue 3's development that showed the notebooks. Likely the one you're referring to:

index.php

Here we see the chapters are:

1) Yokosuka
2) Hong Kong
3) Suzhou
4) Guilin
5) Baisha

Considering Baisha was never supposed to be in the original 11 chapter I thought it was something added for Shenmue 3 since it was never mentioned in any other previous chapter list. Baisha is loosely based on Fujian which is just south of Shanghai and east of Hong Kong. Not really along the way from Guilin heading north, but maybe in this fictionalized China they could make it work.

That being said, I don't think we'll see Baisha again. For one any major story elements from it were probably put into Shenmue 3 and whats left could be repurposed to another location; but that's just my guess. Suzuki seems pretty willing to cut up the 11 chapter treatment and make whatever games out of it that he can at the time. See the video (around 9:40) below explaining that about Chapters 3 & 4.


As for what's left, Suzuki has only spoken about the 11 chapter model since S3's announcement so I'm assuming he is working off that as his framework. In this interview he says S3 comes out of Chapter 3 -6 but I'm not sure if he just means elements of it,

I believe the Suzhou chapter was (mostly) repurposed for Niaowu.
vyYOuVm.png

We can kind of see some of the character like Yanlang here. Suzhou was likely the eastern HQ for the CYM where you would face Lan Di. In the concept art you can see Yuanda Zhu in the bottom centre (in a higher quality version) making me believe you were supposed to rescue him instead of Yuan and lose to Lan Di. The other comparisons are the fact that they are both water cities.

This would leave Chapters 6 - 11 left if we are still following that outline. They could probably cut Xian and tie those ideas into S4 elsewhere. I can't see them cutting Luoyang because it ties into Shenhua's backstory and definitely not Cangzhou since it's where Sunming Zhao died and where Bajiquan is from. Shenmue 5 could focus on Beijing and wherever else they need to end the story.

No idea where the cliff temple fits into all this but my guess it was supposed to be a part of S3 but is now being tagged onto S4 because they couldn't fit it in.
 
I haven't had time to read everyone else's posts yet, but just looking at the op, the issue or concern I have with your layout is that Shnemue 1-3 all contain only 1 or 2 cards, but are large games as is. I don't understand how in S4 and S5 they'd be able to cram that much story into just two games.

I guess that is the same concern I have with playing Shenmue 3. If 3 games only takes us 40% through the story, how is 60% going to be crammed into 2 games?
 
This thread covers a lot of what we're talking about.

Apologies if this gets long but I think I can break it down here.

It seems like over the years the chapter structure has changed a lot. Originally, there were 11 chapters in what was the novelization of The Legends of Akira or what we call VFRPG. They were given 11 concept arts to correspond with the chapters:


gdc_vfrpg_11chapters.jpg


These all correspond with locations which were written on this map image:

698955.jpg


1) Yokosuka
2) Hong Kong
3) Train
4) Shanghai & Suzhou
5) Guilin
6) Xian
7) Luoyang
8) Cangzhou
9) Inner Mongolia (possibly rural)
10) Beijing (note the map says END, possibly denoting the end of the story)
11) Xinjiang

Somewhere during development of Shenmue this changed. As Shenmue 2 shows the numbered chapters in the notebook being:

1) Yokosuka
2) Hong Kong
3) Kowloon
4) Guilin

Later, during Shenmue Online development, this leaked out:

index.php


Here it shows the chapters being:

1) Yokosuka
2) Genpu Maru, the boat from Japan to China
3) Hong Kong
4) Kowloon
5) Li River
6) Bailu Village

This kind of corresponds to Shenmue 2 if you account for the boat "chapter" being cut. Shenmue 3 would then pick up on chapter 5/6 for Bailu village. This may account for the stories of Shenmue having 16 chapters rather than 11. It could be that the original 11 chapters were broken down further during development as they got more ideas to make more sections playable and things expanded.

It also loosely corresponds to the whiteboard image:

am2_4.jpg


Which I never put much stock into. It was apparently from a Sega employee leak who remained anonymous (not Suzuki), but I always thought it was bunk since anyone can write on a board. But this could be accurate corresponding to the 16 chapter outline vs the 11.

Shenmue Online also had this image which mentions Seoul and Busan, but it was probably just promotional trying to appeal to a Korean audience:

index.php


So where does that leave Baisha? Well there was another image which came out during Shenmue 3's development that showed the notebooks. Likely the one you're referring to:

index.php

Here we see the chapters are:

1) Yokosuka
2) Hong Kong
3) Suzhou
4) Guilin
5) Baisha

Considering Baisha was never supposed to be in the original 11 chapter I thought it was something added for Shenmue 3 since it was never mentioned in any other previous chapter list. Baisha is loosely based on Fujian which is just south of Shanghai and east of Hong Kong. Not really along the way from Guilin heading north, but maybe in this fictionalized China they could make it work.

That being said, I don't think we'll see Baisha again. For one any major story elements from it were probably put into Shenmue 3 and whats left could be repurposed to another location; but that's just my guess. Suzuki seems pretty willing to cut up the 11 chapter treatment and make whatever games out of it that he can at the time. See the video (around 9:40) below explaining that about Chapters 3 & 4.


As for what's left, Suzuki has only spoken about the 11 chapter model since S3's announcement so I'm assuming he is working off that as his framework. In this interview he says S3 comes out of Chapter 3 -6 but I'm not sure if he just means elements of it,

I believe the Suzhou chapter was (mostly) repurposed for Niaowu.
vyYOuVm.png

We can kind of see some of the character like Yanlang here. Suzhou was likely the eastern HQ for the CYM where you would face Lan Di. In the concept art you can see Yuanda Zhu in the bottom centre (in a higher quality version) making me believe you were supposed to rescue him instead of Yuan and lose to Lan Di. The other comparisons are the fact that they are both water cities.

This would leave Chapters 6 - 11 left if we are still following that outline. They could probably cut Xian and tie those ideas into S4 elsewhere. I can't see them cutting Luoyang because it ties into Shenhua's backstory and definitely not Cangzhou since it's where Sunming Zhao died and where Bajiquan is from. Shenmue 5 could focus on Beijing and wherever else they need to end the story.

No idea where the cliff temple fits into all this but my guess it was supposed to be a part of S3 but is now being tagged onto S4 because they couldn't fit it in.

That was an amazing post.

I haven't had time to read everyone else's posts yet, but just looking at the op, the issue or concern I have with your layout is that Shnemue 1-3 all contain only 1 or 2 cards, but are large games as is. I don't understand how in S4 and S5 they'd be able to cram that much story into just two games.

I guess that is the same concern I have with playing Shenmue 3. If 3 games only takes us 40% through the story, how is 60% going to be crammed into 2 games?

Its all just random speculation on my part. No proof or anything. The other replies give some good context to those cards.
 
It seems like over the years the chapter structure has changed a lot. Originally, there were 11 chapters in what was the novelization of The Legends of Akira or what we call VFRPG. They were given 11 concept arts to correspond with the chapters:

So where does that leave Baisha? Well there was another image which came out during Shenmue 3's development that showed the notebooks. Likely the one you're referring to:

Here we see the chapters are:

1) Yokosuka
2) Hong Kong
3) Suzhou
4) Guilin
5) Baisha
Right, this is my point. These manuscripts are the chapters for VFRPG, and they don't match the chapters from the postmortem. So the title cards, and map from the postmortem can not be seen as the exact chapters of the novelization of VFRPG. There is a strong indication, I feel, that these two outlines can be synthesized into a stacked outline, instead of just repurposed flat ones, and further broken out into sub-chapters. (That is, if we had the full list of chapter titles for the manuscripts, and not just the first five.)

I don't think we've seen anything from the Baisha chapter, and I think it's fairly important to Suzuki. I personally feel that he left out Baisha in Shenmue III because he didn't want it to be only partially realized. He originally billed it as the focal point of the gameplay for Shenmue III. What I question about Baisha isn't really where it fits in, but whether this image on the right:
famitsuart.png


Was actually "Baisha," or if it was some Fujian destination that originally fit into the Suzhou chapter (probably related to the train section). There is actually a Baisha in Fujian, though:
It's just that that's the opposite direction of where the postmortem map indicates. Technically, because of the green kenpogi, that town could hypothetically be anywhere before Cangzhou. In any case, I think the Baisha chapter contains Xian, since that's the only place that really has any access to the Great Wall at this point, and we know the Great Wall was meant to be part of Shenmue III, for at least a battle between Ryo and Ge (and maybe the Cliff Temple). If Xian weren't practical for Shenmue III, then perhaps something similar (Fujian Tulou) would have been used to replace it as a sort of bridge in town size.

I am largely speculating, but only because the current theories, as you've laid out, don't logically fit together.


I haven't had time to read everyone else's posts yet, but just looking at the op, the issue or concern I have with your layout is that Shnemue 1-3 all contain only 1 or 2 cards, but are large games as is. I don't understand how in S4 and S5 they'd be able to cram that much story into just two games.

I guess that is the same concern I have with playing Shenmue 3. If 3 games only takes us 40% through the story, how is 60% going to be crammed into 2 games?
Doesn't necessarily mean it holds true for the rest of the ones after these, but the amount of story in each chapter has been trending down, from the sizes of the manuscripts.
img_8356.jpg
 
Maybe im wrong, but wasn't Baisha replaced with the Castle in Niaowu? That or its located near the cliff temple in Shenmue 4
That's right the castle replaced Baisha in III. It's not to say the great wall they're on isn't Baisha but we don't know for sure.
 
Maybe im wrong, but wasn't Baisha replaced with the Castle in Niaowu? That or its located near the cliff temple in Shenmue 4
True.

This topic is already kind of confusing, so I'm trying not to step too far out into the weeds, and make it worse. Suzuki did mention early on in the development that the 'team' (I'm thinking it was the producers and directors, primarily) took the story bits that hadn't made it into the first two games, and restructured things to fit Shenmue III. He's also mentioned that parts of the Suzhou chapter were used as well. Some of the elements of the castle make it seem like they were borrowed from Shanghai (the Suzhou chapter) based on Lan Di, and the three other faces in the fourth chapter card. I think structurally, the old castle town is kind of meant to evoke some of the same atmosphere as the Tulou that were meant for Baisha, as well.

I tend to think this suggests that a certain amount of the story that was going to be used in the Baisha that was cut from SIII was repurposed from the Suzhou chapter. What I hadn't really considered until recently was the thought that, perhaps, the town that was going to be used as Baisha in SIII might have been some other village from Chapter 3, originally. The only real reason I suggest this is because Xi'an appears to be a very large city, and might have been a real challenge to include in this game, along with the rest of Guilin. There's also some of the superficial, visual, similarities between the Xi'an city wall, and the outside of the Fujian Tulou.

Either way, I think the intent was to have Xi'an or Baisha as the group's sort of entry point to the Great Wall, to get to the Cliff Temple.

Again, I'm mostly speculating here.
 
That was an amazing post.
Thanks!
Right, this is my point. These manuscripts are the chapters for VFRPG, and they don't match the chapters from the postmortem. So the title cards, and map from the postmortem can not be seen as the exact chapters of the novelization of VFRPG. There is a strong indication, I feel, that these two outlines can be synthesized into a stacked outline, instead of just repurposed flat ones, and further broken out into sub-chapters. (That is, if we had the full list of chapter titles for the manuscripts, and not just the first five.)
You might be right. This is a chicken/egg sort of thing though. I was under the impression that the postmortem 11 tiles were the original 11 chapters of the VFRPG. Aside from saying so in the deck, Suzuki has only referenced Shenmue as having those 11 chapters since Shenmue 3 began production.

That being said, the booklets clearly say The Legend of Akira and contradict the tiles. Those pictures never came out before S3 development but we have no clue when they were written. It just seems to contradict earlier sources which show Suzhou as a later chapter and no Baisha.
I don't think we've seen anything from the Baisha chapter, and I think it's fairly important to Suzuki. I personally feel that he left out Baisha in Shenmue III because he didn't want it to be only partially realized. He originally billed it as the focal point of the gameplay for Shenmue III. What I question about Baisha isn't really where it fits in, but whether this image on the right:

Was actually "Baisha," or if it was some Fujian destination that originally fit into the Suzhou chapter (probably related to the train section).
It's definitely Baisha if you ask me, the tulous are very distinct. However, those are S3 concept art. It seemed like he really wanted to put Baisha into the game because he liked the strategy gameplay mode.
It's just that that's the opposite direction of where the postmortem map indicates. Technically, because of the green kenpogi, that town could hypothetically be anywhere before Cangzhou. In any case, I think the Baisha chapter contains Xian, since that's the only place that really has any access to the Great Wall at this point, and we know the Great Wall was meant to be part of Shenmue III, for at least a battle between Ryo and Ge (and maybe the Cliff Temple). If Xian weren't practical for Shenmue III, then perhaps something similar (Fujian Tulou) would have been used to replace it as a sort of bridge in town size.

I am largely speculating, but only because the current theories, as you've laid out, don't logically fit together.
It's so hard to tell I agree. I think the kenpogi isn't an indicator though since all the S3 concept art shows him in it. I do believe Xian was supposed to be its own chapter but it may have been cut? It could be that Baisha was supposed to repurpose some of the story, or maybe it was already incorporated into S3.

Regarding the great wall, I was corrected on this by another user, but there is actually remnants of a wall near Guilin. S3 doesn't specify where they are in the end but I assume that's what was intended.
This topic is already kind of confusing, so I'm trying not to step too far out into the weeds, and make it worse. Suzuki did mention early on in the development that the 'team' (I'm thinking it was the producers and directors, primarily) took the story bits that hadn't made it into the first two games, and restructured things to fit Shenmue III. He's also mentioned that parts of the Suzhou chapter were used as well. Some of the elements of the castle make it seem like they were borrowed from Shanghai (the Suzhou chapter) based on Lan Di, and the three other faces in the fourth chapter card. I think structurally, the old castle town is kind of meant to evoke some of the same atmosphere as the Tulou that were meant for Baisha, as well.

I tend to think this suggests that a certain amount of the story that was going to be used in the Baisha that was cut from SIII was repurposed from the Suzhou chapter. What I hadn't really considered until recently was the thought that, perhaps, the town that was going to be used as Baisha in SIII might have been some other village from Chapter 3, originally. The only real reason I suggest this is because Xi'an appears to be a very large city, and might have been a real challenge to include in this game, along with the rest of Guilin. There's also some of the superficial, visual, similarities between the Xi'an city wall, and the outside of the Fujian Tulou.

Either way, I think the intent was to have Xi'an or Baisha as the group's sort of entry point to the Great Wall, to get to the Cliff Temple.
I agree with this. It seems like he has chopped up the original outline so much its difficult to tell how to put it all back together.

My thought is Niaowu covers a lot of what the original Suzhou chapter was supposed to while incorporating some of the Guilin chapter (Niao Sun). Baisha was originally supposed to be an expanded castle section essentially with a new gameplay system. When it got scrapped the essence of the story elements got used for the games ending. I do think some Baisha story elements remain for S4 though, namely the 4 bosses. If these were meant to be the CYM leaders we will definitely see more of them, unless they were meant to be sub bosses for S3 only.

Whether we see Baisha in S4 depends on how much Suzuki likes the gameplay idea of it. My guess is he will scrap it since he already made the decision to do so at the expense of keeping Niaowu in the game instead.

What I'm curious is about is how much development was done on the Saturn. We know they got up to Guilin but is that following the original outline i.e. was Suzhou or even Baisha completed on the Saturn? Or was it a similar structure to what we got in S1 & S2? If it's the latter then it shows the story changed early on, but other sources indicate that the games didnt change in scope until the Dreamcast
 
I haven't had time to read everyone else's posts yet, but just looking at the op, the issue or concern I have with your layout is that Shnemue 1-3 all contain only 1 or 2 cards, but are large games as is. I don't understand how in S4 and S5 they'd be able to cram that much story into just two games.

I guess that is the same concern I have with playing Shenmue 3. If 3 games only takes us 40% through the story, how is 60% going to be crammed into 2 games?
I kind of agree. However, if cuts are made it could be possible in 2 more games.

Let's say we follow the original 11 chapter outline. We are at the Xian chapter then (chapter 6). If that gets cut and instead there is a small cliff temple section, that would leave 2 major areas for S4: Luoyang and Cangzhou.

S5 would then need to include Beijing and inner Mongolia, or some new area depending on how they repurpose the areas. The ending chapter would probably be changed/truncated down to a cutscene if need be. That means about 2 major areas per game plus 1-2 very small areas if possible. Not much bigger than S3.

Doable but it still requires the budget to be focused on telling the crux of the story.
 
@hmjohnny, that whiteboard is not a leak from a random employee. That's a sketch from Shin Ishikawa during this interview: https://shenmuedojo.com/media/press-events-1999-2003/shin-ishikawa-interview-2003/

He worked on the first two games as an event planner and more, and was the director for Shenmue IIx and the PAL version, according to SEGA Retro.
I didn't realize it was him (or forgot). That makes it a bit more legitimate but there are things about it that don't make sense.

For one it contradicts the earlier 11 chapter treatment which Suzuki consistently references. Second, it shows 4 chapters being in Shenmue 2, when we know there were only 3. Third, it isn't consistent with the other chapter outlines given in our previous posts.

It could be indicative that the chapter structure has gone through numerous changes. Perhaps at the time of Shenmue 2's development that's what the current structure looked like only for it to have changed again.
 
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