We're gonna have to take what we can get

I very much believe Yu can still make a great game out of IV. All the foundations have been laid in III, so all the resources spent learning the engine, developing assets, gameplay, etc could now be allocated to developing the story and giving it more depth. All the groundwork has been done, so IV could very well end up exceeding our expectations.
I sincerely hope so.

However, I think a lot of people are overestimating how much can be reused. Unless Shenmue 4 is going to be like Majora's Mask to Shenmue 3's OoT, reusing all of the same NPC's and location assets.

They will still otherwise have to create all new animations for the new move set, new NPC's, new cities/locations, record new dialogue, likely new gameplay mechanics and mini - games (though some could be reused) etc. Even if they can reuse some of the assets, and they will, it will still be a lot of work on a tight budget.

The biggest asset they will have going into S4 is experience. I think a lot of the devs were inexperienced with UE4 and a lot of time was lost to the learning curve. Also, general development lessons learned with what worked and didn't will speed up the process for the next one. If they get greenlit early enough they can use the same dev team who will be fresh off S3 and ready to go.

So in short, yes I think they could be in a better place for the next one, but I remain (very) cautiously optimistic. Hopefully though I'm wrong and it turns out to be fantastic.
 
I don't think you can seperate Shenmue's story from the open world experience. The story isn't just about what happens with Lan Di and the mirrors, but about Ryo's journey across China and the experiences he has along the way. I want to see all 11 locations from the concept art map as fully realised playable locations as they have been so far. If we get just the plot segments without the enviroments it would be like watching a movie halfway and then skipping to the ending scene. The story might get "concluded" but that way it will never be fully told.

So far we've seen Yokosuka, Hong Kong, Kowloon, Bailu and Niaowu. That leaves six more locations and realistically I don't think Suzuki can squeeze six chapters into a single game. Therefore, I expect we need Shenmue 4 and 5 with both featuring three of the six remaining chapters. But even if we need two more games instead of one, I would prefer for Suzuki to do all he can to conclude the story properly.
If resources are thin, he needs to edit the story if he seriously wants to finish this series. He came up with this story over 20 years ago, when he was the top game designer at Sega and had Michael Jackson and Steven Spielberg hanging out at his office. Things have seriously changed since then...

I don’t feel like the two areas in Shenmue 3 made a strong case for why the game needs to move so slowly. Much of Niaowu’s “feature set” is already in Bailu. You literally have the exact same gambling and arcade games and useless trinkets in both areas; Niaowu is just the game we’d already played for 10+ hours on steroids instead of feeling like a necessary progression of the game.

I appreciate keeping the Shenmue feeling, but a lot of the game really does just feel like padding compared to the progression in the first two games. I think there’s a way to strike a balance between Shenmue and modern game design, though I’m neither a game designer nor a visionary like Yu Suzuki so I wouldn’t ever pretend to know how to do that

Hopefully he can strike that balance next time now that he’s gotten the “OMG it’s Shenmue 20 years later!” thing out of the way.
 
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If resources are thin, he needs to edit the story if he seriously wants to finish this series. He came up with this story over 20 years ago, when he was the top game designer at Sega and had Michael Jackson and Steven Spielberg hanging out at his office. Things have seriously changed since then...

I don’t feel like the two areas in Shenmue 3 made a strong case for why the game needs to move so slowly. Much of Niaowu’s “feature set” is already in Bailu. You literally have the exact same gambling and arcade games and useless trinkets in both areas; Niaowu is just the game we’d already played for 10+ hours on steroids instead of feeling like a necessary progression of the game.

I appreciate keeping the Shenmue feeling, but a lot of the game really does just feel like padding compared to the progression in the first two games. I think there’s a way to strike a balance between Shenmue and modern game design, though I’m neither a game designer nor a visionary like Yu Suzuki so I wouldn’t ever pretend to know how to do that

Hopefully he can strike that balance next time now that he’s gotten the “OMG it’s Shenmue 20 years later!” thing out of the way.

I think DarthJF point was (and I agree with him) that it's possible that, more than the story, what is really important for Yu Suzuki and the Shenmue concept are the locations themselves. From what we know, it looks like he has shuffled some story bits from one location to another with no big regrets, while the locations he has renounced for now include a boat and a train chapter (generic locations).

The poor story pacing and content of Niaowu, while at the same time making a big effort on building lots of shops and beautiful temples maybe reinforce my point, too. And I agree with you completely that they should improve A LOT in that aspect if/when IV comes, because one thing isn't really incompatible with the other (and I don't think having a talented writer shouldn't add much to the games cost).
 
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