What a disappointment

[iknifaugood]

I think the logic most of us are applying is as they have engine, assets, models and systems created development of Shenmue 4 should be significantly faster and cheaper. Thus development funds and time could be utilized in other areas.

This may be a little inside baseball (I'm a UE4 dev) but the assets and systems created for S3 represent a small fraction of the budget that S4 will require. Games that require a lot of budget for systems and engine stuff are games that use custom engines and develop new mechanics (games like Breath of the Wild or Splatoon) because they need to prototype, experiment, and iterate.

It's true that Shenmue 4 will be cheaper to develop in terms of engine and systems (assuming they keep the exact same HUD, dialogue, cutscene, combat, and minigame systems, which they may not since UE4 has made substantial updates since S3 began development) but, apart from a few character models and some environment stuff, we're talking new models, animations, cutscenes, locations, scripting, dialogue etc. That's the bulk of Shenmue's budget; especially because S3 skimped on story for that exact reason, so S4 needs to cover a lot of ground, certainly more than 3 did if he ever intends on finishing that remaining 60% of the story.

TL;DR it will almost certainly be cheaper to make, but not to the degree that its sales will cover the costs. If every person who contributed to the Kickstarter buys the game for $70, that's $5M: it definitely won't cost anywhere near less than that to make.

 

[Sh3ppy]

apart from a few character models and some environment stuff, we're talking new models, animations, cutscenes, locations, scripting, dialogue etc. That's the bulk of Shenmue's budget; especially because S3 skimped on story for that exact reason,

You spend a lot of your posts making the argument that had S3 had a bigger budget, it would most likely still have had the narrative and story shortcomings, yet here you clearly state that they skimped on the story precisely because of the budget. Soo...?

 

[hmjohnny]

TL;DR it will almost certainly be cheaper to make, but not to the degree that its sales will cover the costs. If every person who contributed to the Kickstarter buys the game for $70, that's $5M: it definitely won't cost anywhere near less than that to make.

To add to this, as I've said on other threads, I think people greatly overestimate how many assets can be reused for Shenmue 4. And I don't think people would be happy with a Majora's Mask style sequel that basically reuses every NPC and model.

I think the biggest cost saver they'll have going into Shenmue 4 is experience. A dev team that has experience with UE and making these kinds of games can eliminate the learning curve that likely held back the beginning of production. Assuming that Shenmue 4 gets greenlit early enough reuse the Shenmue 3 team.

 

[Sh3ppy]

A. Utilize the funds you have to finish the series with a minimized scope?
B. Attempt to make the game as mainstream and friendly to new players/critics as possible in an attempt to expand the audience?
C. Invest heavily in marketing/advertising to make sure the launch window of the game gets the proper eyeballs?
D. Spend the entire budget on production making the most compromised, alienating game in the series with no plan for the future?

I'm not trying to make this personal at all, it's just that you do seem to make a concerted effort to paint things in a really negative light. Your multiple choice scenarios up here are a perfect example of it. Obviously I'm referring mostly to D, which is what I'm assuming you are saying happened. I'm not entirely sure if it's on purpose or not tbh.

 

[iknifaugood]

You spend a lot of your posts making the argument that had S3 had a bigger budget, it would most likely still have had the narrative and story shortcomings, yet here you clearly state that they skimped on the story precisely because of the budget. Soo...?

Lol a bit inelegantly phrased on my part. I don’t think the quality of the writing is linked to the budget (if I thought it was, I would just give up on the series), but S3 had to cut an entire area (and presumably at least some story content) due to budget. We don’t know how much S3 advances the story, I would guess around 5%, so if S4 is going to make a dent in the 60% of the story left, it’s going to need to at least triple, if not quadruple, that number. And unfortunately in Shenmue, the story progress is tied to brand new locations, which means new assets, maps etc...

 

[iknifaugood]

I'm not trying to make this personal at all, it's just that you do seem to make a concerted effort to paint things in a really negative light. Your multiple choice scenarios up here are a perfect example of it. Obviously I'm referring mostly to D, which is what I'm assuming you are saying happened. I'm not entirely sure if it's on purpose or not tbh.

I was exaggerating to make a point but I’d be lying if I said that my outlook on the future of the series was more positive than negative. I understand why they made the decision they did (they clearly did what they thought would please fans of the series and prioritized that above courting favorable reviews or expanding the audience) but I can’t help but disagree with it.

 

[Sh3ppy]

Lol a bit inelegantly phrased on my part. I don’t think the quality of the writing is linked to the budget (if I thought it was, I would just give up on the series), but S3 had to cut an entire area (and presumably at least some story content) due to budget. We don’t know how much S3 advances the story, I would guess around 5%, so if S4 is going to make a dent in the 60% of the story left, it’s going to need to at least triple, if not quadruple, that number. And unfortunately in Shenmue, the story progress is tied to brand new locations, which means new assets, maps etc...

 

[iknifaugood]

Assuming that Shenmue 4 gets greenlit early enough reuse the Shenmue 3 team.

This. Dev teams don't just wait around hoping for things to be greenlit; if Suzuki wants to use the same team then S4 is gonna need funding soon.

 

[Life_247]

I suppose at the moment they are working on the DLC and stuff but yes they will need to decide what to do with the team.

In terms of development costs a lot of it is in scripting, models, animations, voice aciting etc. Now obviously a lot of that will have to be new but the fact they have the fighting mechanics, mini game mechanics etc. all down it should in theory speed up development.

I think my issue with the Story in this game isn't that nothing happens - we find out lots about bailu and the mirrors, further clues about Zunming Zhao, LanDi's and Naio Suns power struggle etc. The main problem for me was the games individual story (Think Shenmue 1 and the biker gang etc. - Irrelevant to the total overall lore) was weak - non descript "thugs" that we had to try and chase down or beat and that was it. Heck the main bad guy in the second half of the game is known as "Mr Muscles" - I think we needed someone to care about, a leader of a gang or group that could be fleshed out by the world but we got very little of that.

I get the feeling on this board (and what I feel myself) was this game was in the immortal words of darts playing Ryo - "so close".

 

[Tsukuyomimagi99]

Honestly, from a budget/narrative perspective... I'd rather we just get an anime reboot with a 24 episode season for each game. But hey, I also understand why people wouldn't want that.. this is just me voicing my frustrations with the declining writing standards of the series and wholeheartedly believing that things will only get worse from here.

The problem with going down this route is that who would fund it? Just like with game development, animation is expensive with the cost of a standard anime episode being around one hundred thousand dollars (more if you want better animation quality). So a single twenty four episode season would easily be twenty four million dollars, which is more than the development cost of Shenmue III itself. Now magnify that by Yu Suzuki wanting five games worth of material and you have a development cost of one hundred and twenty million. Most anime nowadays don’t even get past one episode or season; and most series have only twelve episodes in order to cut costs. On top of all that, every anime that is released comes with a licensing deal for things like manga, t-shirts, figures, etc. Since Shenmue is that niche, there is no way that any investor is going to spend that large amount of money knowing full well that they wouldn’t even break even.

 

[japalp]

I hate to be the "math guy", but if one episode costs $100,000, then 24 episodes would cost $2.4 million, not $24 million.

 

[gladias9]

The problem with going down this route is that who would fund it? Just like with game development, animation is expensive with the cost of a standard anime episode being around one hundred thousand dollars (more if you want better animation quality). So a single twenty four episode season would easily be twenty four million dollars, which is more than the development cost of Shenmue III itself. Now magnify that by Yu Suzuki wanting five games worth of material and you have a development cost of one hundred and twenty million. Most anime nowadays don’t even get past one episode or season; and most series have only twelve episodes in order to cut costs. On top of all that, every anime that is released comes with a licensing deal for things like manga, t-shirts, figures, etc. Since Shenmue is that niche, there is no way that any investor is going to spend that large amount of money knowing full well that they wouldn’t even break even.

An anime would beat the hell out of a video game.. in terms of pricing.
And judging by this latest news of Deep Silver losing millions over Shenmue 3.. well, Yu best start thinking out of the box.

Shenmue 3 Performing Below Expectations – Deep Silver

gamingbolt.com

 

[Tsukuyomimagi99]

I hate to be the "math guy", but if one episode costs $100,000, then 24 episodes would cost $2.4 million, not $24 million.

My mistake then.

An anime would beat the hell out of a video game.. in terms of pricing.
And judging by this latest news of Deep Silver losing millions over Shenmue 3.. well, Yu best start thinking out of the box.

Shenmue 3 Performing Below Expectations – Deep Silver

gamingbolt.com

I stand corrected. My apologies. Though I still doubt any investor would want to invest ten million plus into something that is as niche as Shenmue if its been shown to lose money.

 

[gladias9]

I stand corrected. My apologies. Though I still doubt any investor would want to invest ten million plus into something that is as niche as Shenmue if its been shown to lose money.

Its a tough situation all around.
Shenmue 3 was Suzuki's best chance at securing the future of the franchise and quite honestly I feel as though things can only go downhill from here. Could fans back future projects? Sure. But it wouldn't be anywhere near the support that 3 had.

 

[Life_247]

Yikes 50,000 players on PS4 in Q4 - that is not good. (I don't know if that refers to total players that are tracked by Sony or their own sales of the game). If its 50,000 sales on PS4 it means that only $750,000 - $2,000,000 came to Deep Silver from the PS4 S3 release window - I think Yu is going to be needing that Kickstarter again.

 

[Truck_1_0_1_]

The three of you REALLY need to go into the sales thread, to show how these numbers are not only inaccurate, but that DS are being morons and actually believing it.

 

[gladias9]

Yikes 50,000 players on PS4 in Q4 - that is not good. (I don't know if that refers to total players that are tracked by Sony or their own sales of the game). If its 50,000 sales on PS4 it means that only $750,000 - $2,000,000 came to Deep Silver from the PS4 S3 release window - I think Yu is going to be needing that Kickstarter again.

I think at best we can expect PC to make about 20- 30,000 sales but honestly it's still looking bad.
Deep Silver backed this, Epic Games backed this, hired a character modeling group, marketing expenses..
There's no way these are all getting paid off, I don't think they even broke even on the game's base budget.

 

[Sh3ppy]

marketing expenses..

Could have fooled me.