What if Shenmue was financially successful? (An alternative history)

[bcdcdude]

So I got to thinking about the positive feedback to the anime, the E3 reveal of Shenmue III and whatnot. I was thinking, what if things were different? What if Shenmue and the Dreamcast were financial successes and the series continued on a Sega equivalent of a PS3/X360 (or on those consoles itself).

I got to thinking if say Shenmue III was released in 2003/4, IV releaed around 2006/7 and V say around 2008-2010, how would Shenmue be received as a series today? The reason I ask this, is because here - right now in 2021 - the Shenmue community is passionate and tight knit, because we care about something that was deemed unwanted back in the day.

It's a weird thing to say - and hindsight is 20/20 - but part of me thinks that if things plodded on, that Shenmue and its fanbase wouldn't be as fondly remembered then now. In this alternative universe, I imagine that the original games would have some kind of Mass Effect style remaster down the line, but we wouldn't be going over every minute detail as we are doing right now. Absence makes the heart grow fonder after all.

Of course, I am desperate for Shenmue IV and V to exist and for the story to end on its own terms and there's no guarantee this will happen, but would we still be here today if Shenmue completed its story a decade ago? Would Yu Suzuki be as revered? Would this website still exist and be as detailed and passionate? Would an anime exist in the mid 2000's? I imagine it would be fairly disposable and cheap if so.

It's a weird one. I am forever greatful that we have folk here and in powerful positions who are so passionate about the series and for the first time in a few years, I feel Shenmue is in a fantastic position. The long hard years of nothing has made fans step up and demand that the series continue. And i'm so happy that we're not stopping.

I wish I could do more than just post a tweet once a month (i'm sorry, I don't really understand twitter) and i'm technologically inept, but yeah...food for thought and just wanted to say how thankful and grateful I am for the position we are in now. The modern world is full of negativity, but this place I feel comfortable and safe in.

 

[the_phoenix_mirror]

This is what would of happened if Shenmue was a success.

 

[Demon's Triangle]

I guess we'll be on the reboot series now, where Sega milks it out and Ryo's son goes on a quest to avenge his father.

Shenmue 6 The Search for more money.

 

[JCJ]

I don't think Shenmue financial success should be necessarily tied to Sega staying a hardware maker. Had Shenmue II for the Xbox sold much better all the outcome would have been different.

In an alternate universe, though, I like to imagine Sega releasing a Shenmue I+II compilation on PS2, that would've had the chance to sell really well. And the series might have resumed from there, with a third game still on PS2, and two more games on PS3 and Xbox 360 (as was the trend at the time of going multiplatform).

A PS2 version of Shenmue I+II would probably have had sacrifices in texture quality and resolution, but would have compensated with less slowdown and possibly less loading (since the PS2 had double the RAM of the Dreamcast). A bit like the Resident Evil 4 port from Gamecube. A PS3/X360 version of Shenmue IV+V, with the power and talents of Sega/AM2 behind it, could have looked like Uncharted 1 somewhat. If the series were really successful, and with the excuse of allowing the save transfer to go on, maybe Sega would have released HD remasters of Shenmue 1-3 for the PS3/X360 beforehand, like Shadow of the Colossus for example.

 

[WuyingRen]

In an alternate universe, though, I like to imagine Sega releasing a Shenmue I+II compilation on PS2, that would've had the chance to sell really well.

Yup. This is one of very few universes in which I think Shenmue could have been a financial success, though I also think that Shenmue 1 and 2 on the original Xbox could have worked as well.

In hindsight, I think it was shortsightedness on both Sega and Microsoft’s parts that led us to where we are today. Sega sold out its multimillion dollar IP in an attempt to recoup only a fraction of its sunk costs while Microsoft hoped to hoover up Shenmue fans rather than creating new ones with what was still, at the time, a groundbreaking franchise.

It reminds me a little of the Epic deal in that both companies clearly lacked confidence in the IP’s ability to sell to a wider audience. Unlike Deep Silver though, Sega really did have a product that could have sold millions if marketed correctly and released on the right platform(s).

 

[JCJ]

Yup. This is one of very few universes in which I think Shenmue could have been a financial success, though I also think that Shenmue 1 and 2 on the original Xbox could have worked as well.

In hindsight, I think no Japanese RPG could have worked in a platform like the original Xbox, even if the port had included Shenmue I or had been greatly improved in graphics or sound (which it hadn't). I would go farther and say no third party game in that generation could establish a solid audience for itself outside of the PS2.

In hindsight, I think it was shortsightedness on both Sega and Microsoft’s parts that led us to where we are today. Sega sold out its multimillion dollar IP in an attempt to recoup only a fraction of its sunk costs while Microsoft hoped to hoover up Shenmue fans rather than creating new ones with what was still, at the time, a groundbreaking franchise.

It reminds me a little of the Epic deal in that both companies clearly lacked confidence in the IP’s ability to sell to a wider audience. Unlike Deep Silver though, Sega really did have a product that could have sold millions if marketed correctly and released on the right platform(s).

I agree, and I put more blame into Sega/Deep Silver than on Microsoft/Epic. I understand a platform holder like MS or Epic wanting to attract an audience they don't have. It's what they have to do, and sometimes it works. But the creator of the product is the one who has to avoid such traps if they believe in the product. Knowing the end result of Shenmue III, I kind of understand Deep Silver having little faith in it, but Sega's handling of Shenmue 1 and 2, which were top of the line products at that time, is simply inexcusable.

 

[Bambi]

though I also think that Shenmue 1 and 2 on the original Xbox could have worked as well.

Possibly, we can only speculate on what kind of difference it would make but we can all agree that not including the first game was a mistake.

I do firmly believe that the series has always had limited appeal and this somehow makes any mishandling of the IP that much more painful.

 

[danielmann861]

I’ve always wondered this. If Shenmue had been a success, would we have gotten spin offs using variants of the FREE engine?

I imagine it would have been like what Yakuza is now for SEGA to be honest. Ryo's journey would eventually end and we probably would have gotten spin offs involving other characters met along the way. Or new characters in general.

 

[murdiaries]

Half of Shenmue 1 were kinda slow to me and I think that were just unappealing to many casual gamers.

I don't know if that caused the refined and legendary Shenmue 2 experience, but the game would had certainly kept changing across multiple generations, up to which point is hard to imagine.

Best case scenario it would had just improved the formula of S2 with AAA visual quality for 3-4 more games.

Worst case scenario it would had lost its personality in trying to adapt too much to the ever-changing market.

 

[JCJ]

Half of Shenmue 1 were kinda slow to me and I think that were just unappealing to many casual gamers.

I don't know if that caused the refined and legendary Shenmue 2 experience, but the game would had certainly kept changing across multiple generations, up to which point is hard to imagine.

Best case scenario it would had just improved the formula of S2 with AAA visual quality for 3-4 more games.

Worst case scenario it would had lost its personality in trying to adapt too much to the ever-changing market.

I agree that the Shenmue 2 style is probably the one more suited to commercial mass success, and in that parallel universe the PS2 remaster to set the charts on fire should have included an abridged version of Shenmue 1, with the QOL enhancements of the sequel and some pointless story beats removed (the sailors, tatoo and Charlie ones, for example). The subsequent games should also have stayed with the same style of a moderate freedom combined with new surroundings and a select set of excellently written secondary characters.

But (and it's a big but), I have strong doubts that that Shenmue 2 model was ever Yu Suzuki's plan for the entire series. The first Shenmue contrasts heavily with the second of its big focus on a detailed mundane open world. And Suzuki also explained a couple of times that the original idea for 3 was to go "inwards" and focus on developing a relationship between two characters, and also hinted at the Baisha chapter being some kind of strategy game (these ideas were probably softened during development to please longtime fans and make a game more akin to the previous ones, though).

I'm saying this because, maybe, it would have not been the "ever-changing market" the thing driving that "loss of personality", but the creator's intent itself. And it's possible some fans wouldn't have liked those shifts, or even that it would have compromised the series commercial viability.

 

[9dragons]

A more sucessful Shenmue would need a more sucessful Sega . A better Sega would have needed better marketing dudes outside the states. Marketing was always a weakness of Sega in the late 90s. They do not premote their stuff enough and thats why they were beaten by big Sony. Sony proved that with the right marketing you can sell everything even a failed design like the ps2. Their branwashing works till this day when people still speak in high tones of the ps2.

No the 2 is not a bad console but it had a bumpy start and was not as good as Sony promised it. Even remotely.

With better marketing Sega and Shenmue could haven been more sucessful.

But in the long run it would have killed the series. Sega would have milked them like they did with Yakuza and sooner or or later the game might have lost it's identity.