What is your estimated global sales of shenmue 3

WildManofBorneo said:
I want SIII to hit the one million mark as much as anyone else on here, but realistically look at how poorly Shenmue HD has sold.

PS4 - 270,000
PC - Unknown
Xbox One - 70,000
_______________
Total - 340,000+
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Those are ports of old games, Shenmue 3 is a brand new game.
 
There are many ways Shenmue 3 can turn a profit. I have no reason to believe several hundred thousand copies selling would make Shenmue IV impossible. Deep Silver needs more high profile games in their portfolio and Shenmue is one of the higher profile games they've got right now.
 
WildManofBorneo said:
Shenmue 3 doesn't have a $7 million dollar budget lmao. I would wager that with the funding from Epic, Shibuya, Sega?, Sony? and Deep Silver, development costs aren't a penny under $12 million USD.
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Epic, Sony, and SEGA have no financial contribution in development. I'm sure statements that they're "supporting" Shenmue III can be found for all of them, but only Shibuya Productions and Deep Silver are on the record as having a financial contribution to the development budget.

Your estimate of the development budget is probably in the right ballpark though, give or take a few mil. Though with that in mind, around $4 million+ of that was covered by crowdfunding, and while it's unknown what amount of money Epic are paying for PC exclusivity, we do know they're throwing literally millions around to publishers.

The bar to financial success is probably not drastically high with all this in mind, and the limited editions (important - because high revenue yield) have been selling out at the majority of storefronts that have them; even with the odd stock replenishment. Limited Run's version brought in almost $500,000 in revenue alone from 5000 sales.
 
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Based on this chart, it takes a large number of sales for publisher to turn a profit. Though because Shenmue was able to raise such a substantial amount through crowdfunding, it won't require as many sales.

I've crunched some numbers and I think that if Shenmue 3 can hit the 600,000 sales mark, we will fairly certain see a sequal.

Cedric's 1 million mark is probably a bit hopeful, but not the deciding factor.
 
Deep Silver better have some good marketing in line. They're still sending out old-ass screenshots and character models to magazines and websites, which isn't terribly encouraging.
 
1 million was NEVER the deciding mark; it is what he said to have a guaranteed 4th game.

He said even if it fails (my guess is under 300,000), a 4th game has a 50/50 chance of coming out.

Therefore, 500,000 means we get the game, I feel.

I also feel the game will have around one million in sales (heart)
But 575,000 could also be possible (head)

We will see.
 
WildManofBorneo said:
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Based on this chart, it takes a large number of sales for publisher to turn a profit. Though because Shenmue was able to raise such a substantial amount through crowdfunding, it won't require as many sales.

I've crunched some numbers and I think that if Shenmue 3 can hit the 600,000 sales mark, we will fairly certain see a sequal.

Cedric's 1 million mark is probably a bit hopeful, but not the deciding factor.
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So YS net sees only 7$ for eah copy sold? I don't believe that. No way.
They would have to sell a million to break even and all the other involved ones would be profiting much more.
Doesn't make any sense to me.
 
If we're talking at the end of the day, people It's going to sell more then 1m copies. Shenmue 1 sold like 2.3-2.5m on the DC alone, and since those days, the Shenmue franchise has only grown in popularity.

Also mind you when Shenmue 1, and 2 were coming out back in the day, that was right after the pure adventure genre died(Shenmue, and Shenmue 2 were basically the swan song of the entire genre, and omg what a swan song it was).

However these days, the Adventure genre has been given new life thanks to the ever increasing indie market, so Shenmue 3 is in a lot better place then the first two games were.

Then you factor in, Shenmue 3 is 18 years in the making...yea, It's going to sell way more then 1m units then 1m.


Oh yea, all these damn special releases certainly don't hurt any lol.
 
Considering that Shenmue III is the most popular of all the Shenmue games just off the strength of consumer demand alone, and Shenmue 1 was one of the top 5 best selling DC games at over a million. With Youtube and other outlets of Social Media as prominent as it is today, it won't be hard for III to be the best selling game in the series.

I say Shenmue 3 does 2 million easily. Can't wait for the inevitable AVGN video where he hilariously rips into Shenmue. I have a feeling we'll see that video upload come november
 
darksniper said:
Considering that Shenmue III is the most popular of all the Shenmue games just off the strength of consumer demand alone, and Shenmue 1 was one of the top 5 best selling DC games at over a million. With Youtube and other outlets of Social Media as prominent as it is today, it won't be hard for III to be the best selling game in the series.

I say Shenmue 3 does 2 million easily. Can't wait for the inevitable AVGN video where he hilariously rips into Shenmue. I have a feeling we'll see that video upload come november
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Yea that shouldn't be hard.

Actually the AVGN agrees Shenmue is a great game, so that's not going to happen.
 
It will sell mostly to the fans.
I can't imagine non-fans finding any appeal especially after the atrocious marketing. Plus it kinda require you to have played the first two in order to understand the appeal of the game and get attached to the story. Trailers will never give Shenmue justice . From the outside it looks like a game about a dude with janky animations and stilted voice acting walking around asking for directions, no one I know who is not a fan already have seen Shenmue 3 trailers and was sold on it, at most they say something along the lines of "good for the fans I guess"

This sells 300k if I'm being optimistic
 
Well, i mean not that i think that this will happen but even if Shenmue 3 will be a success,
YS Net still needs Deep Silver and / or Sega to keep going. (if they want to maintain the quality level of S3)
Shenmue 4 or 5 or whatever will only come if Deep Silver and Sega are still interested. I doubt that YS Net
could achieve the same numbers for Shenmue 4 on KS again, you only get this kind of hype once.

Again, not that i think that we have to be afraid right now, just a reminder that Deep Silver and / or Sega could simply say "no"
because of whatever reason and thats it. Good or okay sales numbers are just one part,
but if those companies are stopping the support we will have a big problem.
I hope that they already talked about this stuff in detail behind the scenes and clarified how the Shenmue road looks like.
We really cant afford another big hiatus because that will probably be the death of the IP.
 
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