What is your estimated global sales of shenmue 3

I like my theory that Shenmue 3 is going to be HUGE in China and sell millions of copies there alone.

Even if I'm wrong, I think there's a great chance it'll do fairly well. Even all that bad press might end up being a good thing, because the scandals are over now and the emphasis is on the game itself, which has been receiving positive demo reviews and some lengthy pieces in gaming publications.
 
Guys not ALL of the marketing was that terrible, it's fully acceptable to expect Shenmue sells to a niche, but niche on a system with an install base of 100 million is easily 1 million people even more.
 
This sells 300k if I'm being optimistic

Um, yeah, not happening.

I see how some saying 2 mil is being overly optimistic (rightfully so), but 300,000 is woefully pessimistic.

The game will do at least 500,000; more than that, who knows?
 
I think Shenmue 3 will sell much better than 1 & 2 ever did.

It's got way more eyeballs on it than the original games ever did and I don't think the "HD" ports are really indicative of Shenmue 3's sales, not everyone is going to buy re-releases of a game. Deep silvers marketing has been a big improvement, all the different collectors editions, social media coverage has been much bigger than the re-releases.

My predictions are:

PS4: 500,000
PC: 150,000
Kickstarter: 70,000

So somewhere between 600,000-700,000. With a $7 million budget that ain't too shabby.
 
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I really don't think it is, I donlt think it will just sell that much out of the gate Shenmue 3 will be a sleeper for sure.

Trust me, as I wrote a page back, my heart says 1.2 mil+.

But I think REALISTICALLY, 500,000 is a good floor and it will only go up from there.
 
Um, yeah, not happening.

I see how some saying 2 mil is being overly optimistic (rightfully so), but 300,000 is woefully pessimistic.

The game will do at least 500,000; more than that, who knows?
I'm posititive pre-orders alone are going to destroy that 300k. Hell just the die hard fans alone are pre-ordering on average 3 copies, and lets be real, more then the die hards are going to pre-order Shenmue 3.
 
I second Yokosuka's prediction... I'm also thinking 1.2 million, but it will be a long tail sort of situation, not all at once.

Yep, the price is too high to expect a good record in the first months. Probably many people are interested in buying the game but are psychologically unable to spend such amount of money for a game with so outdated technique.
 
Yep, the price is too high to expect a good record in the first months. Probably many people are interested in buying the game but are psychologically unable to spend such amount of money for a game with so outdated technique.


Lets not underestimate things, fools pay 60 for guilty pleasure action, and sports games lol. I think people might wait a week(still in the launch period, so not bad) to see how many hours of gameplay, and youtubers to do reviews/lets plays, but after that, I don't think anyone will find it hard to pay 60 for it.
 
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The big factor here are going to be the game reviews imo.
If this game reviews well across all the different media outlets, many new people might jump in.
8s and 9s would be great, and would definitely help in the sales department.
 
Shenmue is far too despised by a certain subset of people for that. Expect those fucks at Giant Bomb to trash it also big YT channels (Sterling, Dunkey, Angry Joe, The escapist, Funhaus ect.)
Yea sadly. I can see 8s being the average user rating perhaps, but as far as mainstream media goes, Shenmue 3 will be lucky to get 6s
 
RDR 2 on PC for November 5th, the curse continues... I counted on PC to make solid figures but this is not going to make things easier.
 
RDR 2 on PC for November 5th, the curse continues... I counted on PC to make solid figures but this is not going to make things easier.

I don't think it will be too much of a problem though. RDR 2 doesn't even have a noticeable fraction of the clout people acted like it would, when it first came out, and RDR online is complete trash. After just 1 week, buzz for RDR 2 dropped off a cliff, free falling to the point, history will remember it as a super obscure game, if it remembers it at all. Considering RDR 2 already exists elsewhere, and Shenmue 3 comes out the 19th, Shenmue 3 should be in the clear.
 
I don't think it will be too much of a problem though. RDR 2 doesn't even have a noticeable fraction of the clout people acted like it would, when it first came out, and RDR online is complete trash. After just 1 week, buzz for RDR 2 dropped off a cliff, free falling to the point, history will remember it as a super obscure game, if it remembers it at all. Considering RDR 2 already exists elsewhere, and Shenmue 3 comes out the 19th, Shenmue 3 should be in the clear.
I think you're writing off RDR2 far too much there. Regardless of what anyone thinks of critical scores or review aggregators, it's rated as the eighth-best game of all time on GameRankings, and the third-best of this generation behind only Super Mario Odyssey and Breath of the Wild.

It's hardly going to fade into super obscurity.
 
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