So I'm bumping this because after streaming 1000 raffle attempts, I can conclusively say the odds given in the guide are wrong.
Official odds are as follows:
S-prize: 1/400
1 prize: 1/100
2 prize: 1/50
3 prize: 1/10
4 prize: 1/8
5 prize: 1/5
If these odds were correct, you would win a prize on the raffle 45.75% of the time, or nearly half. During the "lucky" dates, doubling these odds would mean a 91.5% chance of winning a prize every time.
You do not win 9 out of 10 times during Christmas. In fact, neither of these figures are even within five standard deviations of the no-prize rate I got from my 1000 draws, which means either the figures are wrong, or I got astounding good/bad luck at probabilities equivalent to getting 3 Dural Golds in a row.
But complaining that the odds are wrong aren't helpful, so I'm giving my projected odds. Note that these are with a relatively low sample size (and in fact, I haven't yet earned a Dural Gold - so this is purely a guess based on the ratio of the other results) and may change as I continue to grind for capsule toys.
My projected odds are as follows:
S-prize: 1/600
1 prize: 1/75
2 prize: 1/50
3 prize: 1/25
4 prize: 1/20
5 prize: 1/8
(no prize: 3/4)
These results were gathered on Christmas Eve in-game in the re-release, so the doubling should be in effect. Odds are within 1 standard deviation of experimental data - I merely rounded them to "nice" values (as they are likely to be as such in this instance). I started by obtaining a load of Winning Cans, and then made a save in Abe Store. After that, I used multiple Winning Cans to make multiple attempts at the raffle, and then reloaded the save.
The 1 prize (Dural Silver) is significantly more likely than the S prize (Dural Gold). For 1000 attempts, I earned Dural Silver 14 times without a single Dural Gold.