Save Scumming for Dural Gold

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Sep 2, 2018
So I've been captivated by Shenmue for years and knew if I ever had the games I'd attempt to collect everything. And since you can save anywhere in this release, I thought I'd do a bit of save scumming for the raffle prizes in Shenmue 1 just to keep my money up. Boy am I paying for this decision. I've gotten Dural Silver a whopping seven times at the time of this post during my hunt for the Gold figure. As well as untold amounts of the other prizes. Thankfully I've been able to multitask with various other activities throughout these hours of gameplay.

Anybody else know my pain?
 
So I've been captivated by Shenmue for years and knew if I ever had the games I'd attempt to collect everything. And since you can save anywhere in this release, I thought I'd do a bit of save scumming for the raffle prizes in Shenmue 1 just to keep my money up. Boy am I paying for this decision. I've gotten Dural Silver a whopping seven times at the time of this post during my hunt for the Gold figure. As well as untold amounts of the other prizes. Thankfully I've been able to multitask with various other activities throughout these hours of gameplay.

Anybody else know my pain?

Oh yes - I know your pain, brother! If it's any consolation, it's much easier to get in Shenmue II if you want to carry on your hunt with your file transfer.
 
I got two within the space of about a minute earlier on. Wish I could throw one your way, dude :p
 
Oh yes - I know your pain, brother! If it's any consolation, it's much easier to get in Shenmue II if you want to carry on your hunt with your file transfer.

Yes I am aware of this. But I want to be able to say I've finished the collection for Shenmue 1 IN Shenmue 1.

I got two within the space of about a minute earlier on. Wish I could throw one your way, dude :p
Guh...

Well at least this confirms this toy wasn't mysteriously removed from the re-release. Being stuck on this for so long is leading me to think my game is cursed in some way.
 
Yup, back on Demul when I captured videos from playing there it took me over 2200 draws at the raffle until I won the Dural Gold.
And I did it during Christmas, wich doubled the chances of winning.

The strategy I used should still be helpful though. Buy drinks at the vending machine until you have like 10 winning cans and then save and use these 10 cans over and over again instead of buying snacks. Don't have to run to the snacks each time this way.
 
Yup, back on Demul when I captured videos from playing there it took me over 2200 draws at the raffle until I won the Dural Gold.
And I did it during Christmas, wich doubled the chances of winning.

The strategy I used should still be helpful though. Buy drinks at the vending machine until you have like 10 winning cans and then save and use these 10 cans over and over again instead of buying snacks. Don't have to run to the snacks each time this way.

Christmas time? Is that real? Haven't heard any source claim that before. Anyway winning cans seems like a great strategy. Much less time waiting for dialogue and Ryo inquisitively picking up chocolates.Thanks for the tip!
 
Yes it absolutely is. The chances of winning are doubled during the following days: Dec. 24 & 25, Jan. 1 - 4, Feb. 14, March 14.
How unlucky that all my save scumming has occurred on Dec. 23rd. But how'd you find that out anyway? There's so few credible sources on Shenmue on the internet that it's hard to believe anything until you've seen the same thing in multiple sources.
 
How unlucky that all my save scumming has occurred on Dec. 23rd. But how'd you find that out anyway? There's so few credible sources on Shenmue on the internet that it's hard to believe anything until you've seen the same thing in multiple sources.
BlueMue probably figured it out through massive amounts of trial and error, if we do the math 2200 raffles divided by 10 winning cans per scumming attempt (if we go by the method BlueMue described) and it took BlueMue 220 restarts exact to get the gold Dural figure, and when you also consider the fact that he had to go from Ryo's house to the store every time he needed to restart and the amount of time BlueMue spent on this quickly adds up.
 
There's so few credible sources on Shenmue on the internet that it's hard to believe anything until you've seen the same thing in multiple sources.

Kiyuu posted (in the old forum):

Kiyuu said:
One of the developers revealed that in an official guide.
Actually, the days when the chances of winning double are not limited to the Christmas day.

Here's the dates: Dec. 24 & 25, Jan. 1 - 4, Feb. 14, March 14

Kiyuu referred to a Japanese guide book, I guess (does somebody know which one?). As far as I know, the two English guide books (Prima, Versus Books) don’t contain it.
 
@BlueMue @DigitalDuck

Are the Feb 14 and March 14 dates the same high odds in Shenmue 2???

EDIT

If so, then I'd likely try to get the two lucky hit moves scrolls and Kids Dural C on those dates.
 
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So I'm bumping this because after streaming 1000 raffle attempts, I can conclusively say the odds given in the guide are wrong.

Official odds are as follows:
S-prize: 1/400
1 prize: 1/100
2 prize: 1/50
3 prize: 1/10
4 prize: 1/8
5 prize: 1/5

If these odds were correct, you would win a prize on the raffle 45.75% of the time, or nearly half. During the "lucky" dates, doubling these odds would mean a 91.5% chance of winning a prize every time.

You do not win 9 out of 10 times during Christmas. In fact, neither of these figures are even within five standard deviations of the no-prize rate I got from my 1000 draws, which means either the figures are wrong, or I got astounding good/bad luck at probabilities equivalent to getting 3 Dural Golds in a row.

But complaining that the odds are wrong aren't helpful, so I'm giving my projected odds. Note that these are with a relatively low sample size (and in fact, I haven't yet earned a Dural Gold - so this is purely a guess based on the ratio of the other results) and may change as I continue to grind for capsule toys.

My projected odds are as follows:
S-prize: 1/600
1 prize: 1/75
2 prize: 1/50
3 prize: 1/25
4 prize: 1/20
5 prize: 1/8
(no prize: 3/4)

These results were gathered on Christmas Eve in-game in the re-release, so the doubling should be in effect. Odds are within 1 standard deviation of experimental data - I merely rounded them to "nice" values (as they are likely to be as such in this instance). I started by obtaining a load of Winning Cans, and then made a save in Abe Store. After that, I used multiple Winning Cans to make multiple attempts at the raffle, and then reloaded the save.

The 1 prize (Dural Silver) is significantly more likely than the S prize (Dural Gold). For 1000 attempts, I earned Dural Silver 14 times without a single Dural Gold.
 
I had been planning to eventually do precisely what you have done there, and even did mini test runs of your method over the years. Recalling my past save files, your projcted odds do seem fairly accurate. In 16 years I've only gotten the S Prize as Abe ONCE.....!

(also: completely forgotten about my question before: are Feb and March 14 also double odds in Shenmue 2? I've never taken note of those two dates in-game in Hong Kong...)
 
I got two within the space of about a minute earlier on. Wish I could throw one your way, dude :p

Maybe one day we could mod in item trading. Although, I have no clue if it'd be possible without the source. Anyways it'd be cool.
 
It's almost two months later and I finally got Dural Gold. I stopped counting Dural Silvers, unfortunately. And when I was notified of the special raffle days I moved my attempts to Christmas. I wish my PS4 had a play log so I could know how many hours of game time this took. I think it's honestly unlikely I had less than 2000 attempts before getting the gold.

Welp, onto the other raffles.
 
It's almost two months later and I finally got Dural Gold. I stopped counting Dural Silvers, unfortunately. And when I was notified of the special raffle days I moved my attempts to Christmas. I wish my PS4 had a play log so I could know how many hours of game time this took. I think it's honestly unlikely I had less than 2000 attempts before getting the gold.

Welp, onto the other raffles.
Good luck!
 
My projected odds are as follows:
S-prize: 1/600
1 prize: 1/75
2 prize: 1/50
3 prize: 1/25
4 prize: 1/20
5 prize: 1/8
(no prize: 3/4)

Upwards of 2000 attempts now, and I can say I was optimistic in my first projection. The S-prize and 4 prize odds I predicted are no longer plausible with my current data.

Current projection is now:
S-prize: 1/2400 (minimum: 0, maximum: 1/720)
1 prize: 1/100 (minimum: 1/175, maximum: 1/70)
2 prize: 1/48 (minimum: 1/68, maximum: 1/37)
3 prize: 1/32 (minimum: 1/42, maximum: 1/25)
4 prize: 1/16 (minimum: 1/19, maximum: 1/13)
5 prize: 1/8 (minimum: 1/9, maximum: 1/7)
(no prize: 3/4, almost certain on this as it's near-exact and almost certainly between 73.2% and 76.8%)
 
Here's a question. You'd assume there would be no variencies between the originals and the new versions. However from my limited tries i swear I've won more in the raffles than before.

Is there a comparison between the DC and new versions?
 
More than 3000 attempts now. Current projection still stands, but still no Dural Gold.

From the stream, courtesy of 7thAce:

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