I've seen a lot of people say that the latest screenshots of the capsule toy machines being generic means there won't be licensed (Sega) capsule toys

[Space Lion]

I'm not sure if that's true. Remember that I and II both also had "generic" capsule toys that were forgettable. Things like automobiles of trucks, planes and stuff like that which weren't terribly exciting. Just because the capsule toy machines we've seen aren't licensed doesn't mean that there are no licensed toy machines. The same may be true for the arcade machines as well. There's so much we just don't know.

 

[Yokosuka]

- Shenmue 3 is coming in 6 months and Yu has yet to disclose the information despite the multiple questions from journalists.
- Edge were shown a gameplay demo and didn't mention Sega licenced items neither.
- Arcade machines are really become a Yakuza feature now. Sega may want to keep the primaucy of Nagoshi's franchise(s) for commercial purposes.
- The ferry may be the first place you find capsule toy machine in the story so why not put the Sega licensed machine there like Shenmue 1 & 2?

There's still a chance but it's hard to believe at this point.

 

[Space Lion]

All fair points.