Shenmue I DC 100% Suggestions

Torsvik

Torsvik

Are you okay?
Joined
Oct 23, 2018
Location
California
Currently playing
Hang-On
So, for a while now I've been considering doing a Shenmue 100% "Speedrun". I put speedrun in air quotes because its hardly a serious category. More of a fun run. Before I start though, I want to get a gauge of what people consider 100%. Naturally, I'm including all capsule toys (even the ones on passport) and medals but my bigger question is about some of the more obscure and easily missed collectables. Should photos and memos be included? Or what about the locations and character profiles in Passport?

Secondly, if anyone wants they can contribute routs or meta-data, like percentage rates for capsule toys, to help build the run. I do plan on doing the routing myself but I imagine several people already have a mental rout they've put together and would like to contribute. Since you can just grind for money, I want to try to restrict the run to:
  1. As few days as possible
  2. No work day 2 abuse
I realize that things like Dural Gold can kill a run like this but I like the Pass/Fail aspect of the run. It will keep me more interested than a lengthy grind will and make me more likely to attempt the run multiple times. If the run is in-fact impossible, I'll loosen up the restrictions. Mind you, that's impossible, not very-very-hard.

Anyway, don't get too excited to see the run super soon. Right now I'm practicing the 1CC for Hang-On in MAME to prepare for the run. I'm also making some assets for the stream to make it a little more visually exciting like this proof-of-concept:test.png
(I don't really like the transparency on Akira btw and will probably change it)

Making theses assets is part of the reason why I'm looking for what should be included in a 100% category as early as I am. I'm also considering programming a graphic in SDL to show percent completion but that idea might get canned.

Thanks in advance.
 
Oh boy, where to start.....

Well first off, if you are talking about trying 100% one of these games, and not both, then get rid of the word "speed". There isn't a single thing you can do to achieve this in a speedy manner. If anything, you need patience, and lots of it. Once you have patience, then you also need luck as it can, in theory, be an impossibility to achieve a 100% run of both Shenmue and Shenmue 2.

Lets start with your first issue of what exactly constitutes 100%. When I have tried to take on the task, 100% means just that; 100%. It's just how I work. Do things all the way, or not at all. No half assed measures. If you are tackling Shenmue 100%, then that means every notebook entry, every toy capsule, every scroll, every photo.... But that's where you begin to run into problems, because it's impossible to obtain absolutely every photo, or notebook entry. For example, there are 6 photos of Ryo and Nozomi, and you have a choice of taking the picture of you and Nozomi standing apart, or side by side. Also, the photo will look different based on the weather, so you have the choice of a possible 6 photos there, and you cant own all of them. Another example is that you can get a notebook entry from doing a certain task in a certain order, but this in turn will lock out another entry, or at the very least, result in a different entry. So the goal posts of 100% can be moved there.

But if we take the route where one of the Nozomi photos counts, and any notebook entry counts, we still have the issue of the in game items. This issue is 2 fold, firstly the patience and luck to get certain items. The hardest to get is the Space Harrier 1CC, slot house certificates and the gold dural capsule toy. No matter how good I have gotten at Space Harrier, I haven't came close to the 1CC on that, and it seems to be 50/50 when it comes to skill and luck. But there have been people on here who have done it.
The issues with the slot house as well as the gold dural not only are not only based on the incredible luck you need to achieve the certificates/winning raffle, but you now enter into the money issue with Shenmue 1 in particular. The fact is, you only get 500 yen a day, and with the amount of money needed to buy every toy capsule, repeat tries on the arcade machines, buying in store items for the raffle, gambling at the slot house.... you will soon see you cannot have enough money at all to achieve everything needed for a true 100% item completion.

Speaking as someone who has tried it, I have very much given up on it. Shenmue I is the killer. Shenmue 2 its much more possible, but again, something I have not done, particularly due to Afterburner. Both the actual toy capsule and 1CC. But if you really are that intent then all I can do is wish you the best of luck, and offer any help if I can give it.
 
I'll start by quoting myself from the last similar thread we had:

DigitalDuck said:
It's a difficult question to answer, because it depends on your definition of various things.

It's not possible to see "all" scenes in one playthrough, depending on your definition of "all" - for example, the scene where you meet Naoyuki and Ichiro at your house has different dialog depending on whether you went to Yokosuka Bar first or not [...] And that's making no mention of time/weather variations...

It is, however, possible to see every scene in one playthrough if you're not interested in such variations. As far as I know there's no complete list of scenes at the moment, but there are no cutscenes which lock out other cutscenes, aside from the variations.

Similarly, it's not possible to get "all" items in one playthrough for the same reason - for example, there are six different Nozomi photos you can get, and you can only ever get one per playthrough. But you can get one of every item if you're not interested in those variations.

[...] it's not possible to hear all dialogue in one playthrough - some dialogue locks out others (for example, when you're looking for Charlie and you talk to someone who tells you about Nagai Industries, you can no longer find out about Nagai Industries from any of the others, instead following different dialogue asking for directions instead).
Click to expand...

Let's tackle the "100%" question. Are you interested in all cutscenes? All items? All dialogue? All notebook pages filled? The maximum number of each or any of those things attainable in one playthrough?

Torsvik said:
So, for a while now I've been considering doing a Shenmue 100% "Speedrun". I put speedrun in air quotes because its hardly a serious category. More of a fun run. Before I start though, I want to get a gauge of what people consider 100%. Naturally, I'm including all capsule toys (even the ones on passport) and medals but my bigger question is about some of the more obscure and easily missed collectables. Should photos and memos be included? Or what about the locations and character profiles in Passport?
Click to expand...

There is nothing about this that would constitute a "fun run", because you have two things in combination:

1. Capsule toys, which are RNG hell.
2. Dreamcast, which lacks save anywhere and is slow to save and reload.

Torsvik said:
Secondly, if anyone wants they can contribute routs or meta-data, like percentage rates for capsule toys, to help build the run. I do plan on doing the routing myself but I imagine several people already have a mental rout they've put together and would like to contribute. Since you can just grind for money, I want to try to restrict the run to:
  1. As few days as possible
  2. No work day 2 abuse
I realize that things like Dural Gold can kill a run like this but I like the Pass/Fail aspect of the run. It will keep me more interested than a lengthy grind will and make me more likely to attempt the run multiple times. If the run is in-fact impossible, I'll loosen up the restrictions. Mind you, that's impossible, not very-very-hard.
Click to expand...

You realise that the Pass/Fail aspect of the run will lead to a lengthy grind, right?

If you're going to be doing this on DC, save scumming is basically out of the question. With that in mind, the fastest way of getting raffle draws is by buying the chocolates etc.
Winning all prizes in Dobuita Tomato Mart would take an average of about ￥12000 (further experimentation needs to be done on this); same for Harbor Lounge.
I currently have no idea how much you'd expect to spend in Abe Store because I've yet to win a single Dural Gold after more than 3000 attempts. To put that into perspective, it would be cheaper to buy the ticket to Hong Kong in Global Travel Agency than it would to get a Dural Gold. The only way you can earn enough money to do this is by grinding the forklift job... by which point you get only a couple of minutes total to spend in Abe Store.

Looking at the money situation:
Start: ￥9800
Daily income: ￥16000 (￥500 per day; in order to get all cassettes, your last work day has to be at least January 3rd; if your goal includes "as few days as possible", it means your last work day IS January 3rd, which gives you 32 days of income)
Ryo's bank: ￥36512
Fuku's piggy: ￥39634
Forklift earnings: ￥(2000+300*20+350*16+400*20+450*16+500*18)=￥37800 (as your goal includes not repeating work days; I assume "no work day 2 abuse" also includes not repeating the other days either)

Your total income across the run will be ￥139746.

Cassettes: ￥6600 (￥300 each, and 22 of them are available to buy)
Shenmue treats: ￥360 (Chocolate, Potato Chips, and Caramel are ￥120 each)
Cat food: ￥(90+90+180+500)=￥860 (you do not need to buy Dried Fish or Milk)
Light bulb: ￥90 (every other item in the shop can be found instead of being bought)
Arcade prizes: ￥500 (assuming you can do well enough first time in every game...)
Move scrolls: ￥(500+1000+1000+1000+2000+3000)=￥8500
Trips to the harbour: ￥6400 (￥160 each way, 20 trips in total are necessary - ten required in the course of the story, eight more for Lapis clues, and two to get a map of the Old Warehouse District)
Lapis clues: ￥11700 (￥300 each, 39 in total)
Ticket to Hong Kong: ￥69000

Cost so far: ￥104010. This leaves ￥35736 to spend on things that require a great deal of luck.

Assuming you have the best luck in the world:
Capsule toys from machines: ￥13500 (￥100 each, 135 in total)
Winning Can: ￥100
Slot House: ￥100 (minimum spend; you'll have to win 23 prizes on this)
Abe Store prizes: ￥600 (￥120 each, 8 in total - but 3 are free thanks to already counting Shenmue treats)
Tomato Mart prizes (both stores): ￥0 (￥120 each, 15 in total - but all are free thanks to cassettes)

Minimum cost of luck-based items: ￥14300, leaving ￥21436 spare at the end of the game.

HOWEVER

Abe Store prizes (realistically) must be unlocked before starting work; you can put off a lot of things until then, but 14 trips to the harbour, 32 Lapis clues and the ticket to Hong Kong must be spent first.

Total income pre-work: ￥98946
Total necessary costs pre-work: ￥83080

This leaves ￥15866 as the maximum amount to spend at Abe Store, and a lot less time to do everything else.


You have the opportunity to fail an RNG roll about 175 times. Bearing in mind that this includes Dural Gold (for me, 3360 attempts and counting...), FOUR console figurines (also considerably rare), and 21 jackpot wins on the slots (9 on a 1-coin machine, 7 on a 5-coin, 3 on a 10-coin, and 2 on a 20-coin, an expected investment of about 23k tokens = ￥115,000) then you're going to be spending the rest of your life attempting this run.

Torsvik said:
Making theses assets is part of the reason why I'm looking for what should be included in a 100% category as early as I am. I'm also considering programming a graphic in SDL to show percent completion but that idea might get canned.
Click to expand...

I have a tool myself showing % completion (very rudimentary, text-only, and unreleased because I never meant it to be). It uses the following:
Notebook pages (/400)
Learned moves (/20)
Story items (/69)
Gacha (/275)
Cassettes (/28)
Maps (/25)
Pawnshops (/12)
Scrolls (/25)
Shots viewer (/48)
Event photos (/12)
Passport unlocks (/72)
Shenmue Collection unlocks (/26)
Achievements (/55)
Lucky Hit boards played (/107)
Fangmei's confession (/1)

Obviously this is for both games and takes re-release things into account; with that in mind, even with my very slow and methodical playing through, this doesn't go above 96% - and that's even with the main focus of Gacha being in Shenmue II, where you can actually obtain a Dural Gold. The capsule toys are the primary reason for this.

***

EDIT:

If you wanted to make this more "fun", then go for a true 100% - require EVERY notebook entry, and EVERY item variant - this needs a minimum of six playthroughs to do. While that sounds worse to begin with, it gives you a LOT more leeway when it comes to the capsule toys, as you get about ￥220000 more in total to get them with, meaning you can fail an RNG roll about 2000 times.
 
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When I "100%" these games, I don't include capsule toys. I don't include the cassettes since they don't come with you, nor the move scrolls on Dragon street. I also don't include Yukawa scenes nor slot prizes... All these things except for cassettes are so heavily luck based that it's just not worth the attempt IMO. I'd rather enjoy playing while working to get everything, I don't really enjoy spending hours upon hours at the Abe store...

I just make sure to get all other optional items, all moves, all cutscenes, and enough collectibles to sell in Shenmue 2 for decent coin. It's probably a good idea to include all 5 forklift toys, the toys that come with getting high scores in the arcade, that kinda stuff since they aren't luck based at all. Also beating Chai in the arcade is a must lol. That's the kinda stuff I consider when I do my runs, if I ever even considered collecting absolutely everything I'd immediately lose interest in playing.

I also "speedrun" in the sense that I try to make every day as productive as possible, with as little waiting around for the next event as I can. I actually have a pretty solid routine with the first game as far as how to do everything as fast as possible. This means stuff like beating Chai quick and hauling ass before I miss the window to meet Goro, and other such similar things...
 
Lots of problems to be sure. I'll try to address them one at a time in order of, what I think is, increasing severity.

The Arcade Challenge
This is actually a large part of the reason I'm taking a shot at this. 1CCs are my kinda jam and having to do 2 in a row with a punishing money limit is exiting to me. Its all right by me if the attempts fall apart near the end due to bad capsule RNG because I'll still be going in with seemingly real steaks where I can't just pump the machine full of quarters till I win.

Multiple Choice Problems
Dealing with events that lock each other out is a sticky problem. I would like to keep each attempt contained though. I think in 1:1 exchanges, like Nozomi's picture, any of the variants will do. As to notebook pages where one might lock out several, I think I'll go for highest volume or max pages. I'm guessing this choice will probably have me running around shaking the most hands for the Passport anyway. I'm not going to worry about cutscenes. My goal is to be able to at the end flip through my inventory and passport to show a set number of goals reached. So in that case if there is a QTE that gives two notebook entries for failure, I'm missing that button press.

Cash and Capsules
Probably the toughest problem since you can't just solve it by getting better. I think that I'm going to see if I can gather some good data on the capsule drop rates. If I get reliable data on the drop rates it actually wouldn't be very hard to write up a small program that can estimate likelyhood of success before Bad End on April 15th given: current funds, current date and current capsule toy list. This would also help me bail early if the RNG waters got too hot.

DigitalDuck said:
I currently have no idea how much you'd expect to spend in Abe Store because I've yet to win a single Dural Gold after more than 3000 attempts.
Click to expand...

I've seen your posts on this and in a weird way may actually be good news. I've seen numbers across the board and although possible, I don't think that just plain poor luck is to blame. I think its entirely possible that, like Lapis and the Slot House, the drop rates may be influenced by external events. Furthermore, if Gold Dural is influenced externally, theres no reason that all capsule machines and lotteries are as well. I have few guesses as to possible influences, I dunno if any or all of these have been disproven:
  1. Current date in Shenmue
  2. Current date in the Internal Clock
  3. A Random number occasionally rerolled.
  4. Based around 1 or a few triggers.
1.) I've already seen claims that Gold Dural has higher drop rate around the Holidays and a few other auspicious dates. Its possible that the influence may go beyond that. Its possible that you have a 0% chance on, say, cloudy days as an example.

2.) This would account for people grinding for an entire day with no results. Even more so if 11/27/1998 00:00 happened to be a poor time to go capsule hunting (I need to bother to replace that battery but its more of a hassle than it has any right to be).

3) Although not manipulable, this might actually be the best circumstance. Its possible that every day or time you enter the convenience store it rolls up a number that says: High, Low or No chance at Gold Dural. The benefit of this is that it would promote the player showing up to the store, buying a few tickets and carrying on. I can see this as a clever programming decision to discourage the player from sitting and grinding.

4) Probably the worst situation. If this is the case it could be nearly impossible to track. Chances are in this case the event(s) are repeatable. The events might also carry over from the previous day. Its totally possible that petting the cat is the key to everything.

I think as early as this week I might sit down in front of a VF Capsule Machine and a spreadsheet and start collecting data. It might become my new Friday night thing. Even if I find that this run is completely impossible, we may solve some mysteries in the process. Forewarning if this turns into a Shenmath thread. I'll post if I think I get any interesting or conclusive results. Might be a week or two before I get much worth posting. Plenty of time to practice Hang-On.
 
Very much agreed on #3. Only time I ever got Gold before Shenmue 2 was just a random save point for a quick pick up play (probably to the arcade), so it was inconsequential...
 
Torsvik said:
1.) I've already seen claims that Gold Dural has higher drop rate around the Holidays and a few other auspicious dates. Its possible that the influence may go beyond that. Its possible that you have a 0% chance on, say, cloudy days as an example.
Click to expand...

Except that Christmas Eve is always snowy with Shenmue Weather (in fact every day has predetermined weather), yet there are videos of people getting Dural Gold on a snowy Christmas Eve.

Torsvik said:
2.) This would account for people grinding for an entire day with no results. Even more so if 11/27/1998 00:00 happened to be a poor time to go capsule hunting (I need to bother to replace that battery but its more of a hassle than it has any right to be).
Click to expand...

Except that I've been doing this over the course of two weeks, not in a single day.

Torsvik said:
3) Although not manipulable, this might actually be the best circumstance. Its possible that every day or time you enter the convenience store it rolls up a number that says: High, Low or No chance at Gold Dural. The benefit of this is that it would promote the player showing up to the store, buying a few tickets and carrying on. I can see this as a clever programming decision to discourage the player from sitting and grinding.
Click to expand...

Except that I've often exited and re-entered the store, and this goes against other experimental data as well as developer notes (not that the developer notes are accurate either).

Torsvik said:
4) Probably the worst situation. If this is the case it could be nearly impossible to track. Chances are in this case the event(s) are repeatable. The events might also carry over from the previous day. Its totally possible that petting the cat is the key to everything.
Click to expand...

Except that people have gotten the Dural Gold on literally their first day just heading straight to the Abe Store.


Seriously, it's none of these things. It's just a really low chance.
 
I will maybe try and find the video later, but from one of my Legacy streams when I started the Shenmue Lounge channel, I got 2 gold durals either on the same day, or a couple apart. I would need to go back and check. This was on the Dreamcast, and it was funny because I was doing the 100% stream a different night of the week, and of course, a gold dural would not drop at all on Demul.
 
Just my two cents even though I don't go hard for capsule toys and tomato mart prizes, I do always skip to December 23rd by letting the flashlight drop a few times. This not only allows me to get a Nozomi event that's only possible after Christmas a bit later in the game, but allows me to spend christmas eve and christmas with a decent amount of cash in hand to get items. You get some money with each failure, as Ryo collects his 500 and only spends it on bus fare each day, netting you a small profit.

I also use this time before I get the sword handgaurd to complete the nozomi phone call event and the follow-up up friends event the night after, as well as train moves before the dreaded Chai fight.

Supposedly during holidays, drop rates are much better all around. I don't know the actual data on this, but ignoring some confirmation bias I find it to be true, I always get better stuff those two days than any other time. This is actually one of my favorite parts of the playthrough. It's just a lot of maintenance and rewards all around...
 
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLaIPzXREEorGFW2H0UNSe83SQYO_g4K-y

I did a general stream last year on the Dreamcast, and on day 1 first try, i got the silver Dural (episode 1). The on the second episode, which i am unsure of the game day, i got the gold dural.

In episode 5, i get another gold dural. Not joking. In the one playthrough.

I am not sure of the specifics, but if you are seriously looking into hardcore stats like time of day, weather etc, they may help.
 
DigitalDuck said:
Except that I've been doing this over the course of two weeks, not in a single day.
Click to expand...
That might be really useful in cutting out large swaths of tests. It would be super cool if you remembered what days of the week and year you played. Vague hours might be cool, but I don'y think that will have any bearing. Also what version was it, I don't think it matters but I want to be scientific about this.

Peter said:
I did a general stream last year on the Dreamcast, and on day 1 first try, i got the silver Dural (episode 1). The on the second episode, which i am unsure of the game day, i got the gold dural.

In episode 5, i get another gold dural. Not joking. In the one playthrough.
Click to expand...
Wow! When I opened this thread I was hoping I could get some anecdotes like this or @xatruio 's sudden Dural but I assumed it was too optimistic to hope for video evidence of two Durals in close succession. Especially something as well documented as this.

They say lightning doesn't strike twice, but if it does, you can bet your lucky Binsbein that I'll be there with a Spreadsheet and a magnifying glass.
 
Torsvik said:
That might be really useful in cutting out large swaths of tests. It would be super cool if you remembered what days of the week and year you played. Vague hours might be cool, but I don'y think that will have any bearing. Also what version was it, I don't think it matters but I want to be scientific about this.
Click to expand...

3360 attempts on Re-release, during 17th, 21st, 22nd, 24th, 26th, and 29th of October 2018, 3pm-8:30pm.

Feel free to waste your time looking for connections that aren't there.
 
Thanks for the info, I appreciate it. Don't need to be so terse about it though.

I'm totally prepared to put in 200 hours and get largely inconclusive results. Even if I don't find any way to manipulate luck I'll still get some nice solid data tables. I'm mostly curious since I haven't seen any good documentation but have seen claims of some days yielding better results than others.

On that note, does any one know the origin of the claim that the holidays produce more rare drops? Is it a Passport tip, from a guide or did it organically grow within the community? Part of the investigation will be if "Lucky Days" are real or just a placebo effect. If they are real, I want to get an idea of the actual difference between those and regular days. I can see the real possibility of Lucky Days being a result of there just being more attempts on a set number of days, inflating the perceived luck. Even if there's an official source, I'll be taking it with a grain of salt. It wouldn't be the first time I've seen in-game hints or guides be unintentionally misleading. I want to see it with my own eyes before I start drawing conclusions.
 
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Torsvik said:
Thanks for the info, I appreciate it. Don't need to be so terse about it though.

I'm totally prepared to put in 200 hours and get largely inconclusive results. Even if I don't find any way to manipulate luck I'll still get some nice solid data tables. I'm mostly curious since I haven't seen any good documentation but have seen claims of some days yielding better results than others.
Click to expand...

You're right; I'm being terse because you seem convinced there are factors involving various external factors when all existing evidence is consistent with a standard low probability random drop.

But having more data is always a good thing, so I shouldn't be a dick about it.

Torsvik said:
On that note, does any one know the origin of the claim that the holidays produce more rare drops? Is it a Passport tip, from a guide or did it organically grow within the community? Part of the investigation will be if "Lucky Days" are real or just a placebo effect. If they are real, I want to get an idea of the actual difference between those and regular days. I can see the real possibility of Lucky Days being a result of there just being more attempts on a set number of days, inflating the perceived luck. Even if there's an official source, I'll be taking it with a grain of salt. It wouldn't be the first time I've seen in-game hints or guides be unintentionally misleading. I want to see it with my own eyes before I start drawing conclusions.
Click to expand...

It's from an official Japanese guidebook, but it comes bundled alongside these odds:

DigitalDuck said:
Official odds are as follows:
S-prize: 1/400
1 prize: 1/100
2 prize: 1/50
3 prize: 1/10
4 prize: 1/8
5 prize: 1/5

If these odds were correct, you would win a prize on the raffle 45.75% of the time, or nearly half. During the "lucky" dates, doubling these odds would mean a 91.5% chance of winning a prize every time.

You do not win 9 out of 10 times during Christmas.
Click to expand...

The only polite word to describe these odds is "fabricated".

Based on my attempts so far, the odds are more consistent with:
S-prize: 1/2400 (minimum: 0, maximum: 1/1200)
1 prize: 1/100 (minimum: 1/150, maximum: 1/75)
2 prize: 1/48 (minimum: 1/62, maximum: 1/39)
3 prize: 1/32 (minimum: 1/39, maximum: 1/27)
4 prize: 1/16 (minimum: 1/18, maximum: 1/14)
5 prize: 1/8 (minimum: 1/9, maximum: 1/7)
(no prize: 3/4, almost certain on this as it's near-exact and almost certainly between 73.6% and 76.4%)

So it wouldn't surprise me if "lucky days" were also a fabrication by the guidebook.

Having said that, last week while streaming Peter had an extraordinary run of good luck on Christmas Eve...
... in Tomato Mart only. That's something that definitely warrants investigation.
 
Was it Christmas Eve? I thought it was New years, as the NPCs were wearing their celebratory kimomos?
 
Are those higher holiday odds also in Shenmue 2?
 
As in the Toy Capsule machines, I was referring. Also, the winning can seems less common to me in Hong Kong.
 
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