Shenmue I DC 100% Suggestions

[DigitalDuck]

As in the Toy Capsule machines, I was referring. Also, the winning can seems less common to me in Hong Kong.

As far as I know, there have never been any claims that the holiday odds affect anything other than the raffle.

Winning can could well be less common in Shenmue II.

 

[Torsvik]

Based on my attempts so far, the odds are more consistent with:
S-prize: 1/2400 (minimum: 0, maximum: 1/1200)
1 prize: 1/100 (minimum: 1/150, maximum: 1/75)
2 prize: 1/48 (minimum: 1/62, maximum: 1/39)
3 prize: 1/32 (minimum: 1/39, maximum: 1/27)
4 prize: 1/16 (minimum: 1/18, maximum: 1/14)
5 prize: 1/8 (minimum: 1/9, maximum: 1/7)

I really like these numbers because the trend implies that the RNG variable might be stored in a Uint16. They all have relatively close 2^x counterparts. Naturally, the more rare the prize the further the results seem to diverge and become inconsistent. If it does follow a sequence like this we can expect all raffles and capsule machines to follow a trend like this:

5th Prize=1/8
4th Prize =1/16
3rd Prize = 1/32
2nd Prize = 1/64 (I'm guessing rare capsule toys are around here as well, but thats just a guess)
1st Prize = 1/128
S Prize = 1/1024 (Optimistic) or 1/2048 (Realistic)

If lucky days are real they can change the odds by shifting the bits up to 1-3 places making everything 2-8 times more likely. 8 of course is pretty outrageous and would make losing impossible so we probably wont see that. As a side note, if any hard evidence is found for Lucky Days, we should prepare for a real possibility for Unlucky Days.

My current M.O. is to focus on a capsule machine first. Capsule machines and the lottery may have no related influences but if they do it will be much easier to see it in the rate of Wooden Men I collect rather than sticking out a lightning rod waiting for Dural to strike. At the same time I want to see the RNG for them. I don't know if the toys found in all machines are lumped into the same draw pool or if they act as "failures". Same goes for machines with multiple rare prizes. I dunno if anyone has experienced S Kids Dural being any more common than the Kids G.

 

[DigitalDuck]

I really like these numbers because the trend implies that the RNG variable might be stored in a Uint16. They all have relatively close 2^x counterparts. Naturally, the more rare the prize the further the results seem to diverge and become inconsistent. If it does follow a sequence like this we can expect all raffles and capsule machines to follow a trend like this:

5th Prize=1/8
4th Prize =1/16
3rd Prize = 1/32
2nd Prize = 1/64 (I'm guessing rare capsule toys are around here as well, but thats just a guess)
1st Prize = 1/128
S Prize = 1/1024 (Optimistic) or 1/2048 (Realistic)

2nd prize is almost certainly not 1/64; it's too far from the observed value of ~1/45 I've had over thousands of attempts. S prize is not 1/1024 for the same reason. Additionally, these numbers would mean the No Prize rate is significantly higher than observed.

It's unlikely to be comparing bits to determine the random number - very few games on modern consoles do this. What is much more likely (and more common) is a random number generated between 0 and n, and a succession of checks on numbers (determined cumulatively).

Pseudocoding it:

prizes = [1, 25, 75, 150, 300, 600, 4800]
prizerng = random(2400*luckmultiplier)
givenprize = 0
while (prizes[givenprize] <= prizerng)
    givenprize++
return givenprize

This would give prizes at the odds I gave before; it's likely to be similar for the other two raffles (but with the S-prize simply being a copy of the 1-prize, leading to a slightly more likely 1-prize at 1/96 instead of 1/100). To get "lucky days", set the luck multiplier to 0.5; for "unlucky days", set it to 2.

My current M.O. is to focus on a capsule machine first. Capsule machines and the lottery may have no related influences but if they do it will be much easier to see it in the rate of Wooden Men I collect rather than sticking out a lightning rod waiting for Dural to strike. At the same time I want to see the RNG for them. I don't know if the toys found in all machines are lumped into the same draw pool or if they act as "failures". Same goes for machines with multiple rare prizes. I dunno if anyone has experienced S Kids Dural being any more common than the Kids G.

What would also be interesting to know is if even the regular toys all return at the same rate; I swear I never get Pai from the VF Kids machine.

 

[Torsvik]

I don't want to be too quick to throw away my guess but, you have a good point that the 45 is too low to change it to a 64. Its also not crazy that they would still use hex values in Shenmue for a lot of its background math though. Games like Super Mario 64 still did RNG that way and that was only 3 years prior. I'll also add that Shenmue is a very ambitious game. Good minimalist memory use may have been a high priority in the studio. Its also just good programming hygiene to not use more memory or cycles in a variable than you need.

Its tough pinning down the proper stat for Gold Dural too. Because of its rarity the percived probability can get out of control really fast. Take this example:

Pretend for a moment that the actual value to find Gold Dural is 1/1000 and we each set out to observe the statistic.
We each agree to use the same save file and play the lottery 5000 times.

I get a stroke of slightly poor luck and only get 4. My percived probability is 1/1250.
You get a stroke of slightly good luck and get 6. Your pecived probability is about 1/800

Even in this scenario that we agree is more optimistic than reality, with a high sample size and little difference in outcome we observed a nearly 500 change in denominator from each other. This is why I want to point at common binary values. Mostly I just want a well painted target because then, even if I'm wrong, I can still measure how far off mark I am.

Fore warning if I dissapear for a bit. I got a wicked fire happening right outside my lovely home in Cali-fun-ia and theres a decent chance I might get displaced from an evac.

 

[DigitalDuck]

I don't want to be too quick to throw away my guess but, you have a good point that the 45 is too low to change it to a 64. Its also not crazy that they would still use hex values in Shenmue for a lot of its background math though. Games like Super Mario 64 still did RNG that way and that was only 3 years prior. I'll also add that Shenmue is a very ambitious game. Good minimalist memory use may have been a high priority in the studio. Its also just good programming hygiene to not use more memory or cycles in a variable than you need.

It's not crazy, but it's also unlikely.

You give Super Mario 64 as an example, but it's a launch title for a console that's a whole generation earlier. It's hardly a fair comparison.

And what you say is generally true, but given the stores are their own self-contained areas memory shouldn't have been an issue especially not for the single-use random number generator (that actually doesn't need to take any extra memory - define the list as a constant and have the compiler hardcode the values, since they don't change anyway).

Its tough pinning down the proper stat for Gold Dural too. Because of its rarity the percived probability can get out of control really fast. Take this example:

Pretend for a moment that the actual value to find Gold Dural is 1/1000 and we each set out to observe the statistic.
We each agree to use the same save file and play the lottery 5000 times.

I get a stroke of slightly poor luck and only get 4. My percived probability is 1/1250.
You get a stroke of slightly good luck and get 6. Your pecived probability is about 1/800

Even in this scenario that we agree is more optimistic than reality, with a high sample size and little difference in outcome we observed a nearly 500 change in denominator from each other. This is why I want to point at common binary values. Mostly I just want a well painted target because then, even if I'm wrong, I can still measure how far off mark I am.

4 wins out of 5000 gives a 95% chance the probability is between 1/3 million and 1/625.

6 wins out of 5000 gives a 95% chance the probability is between 1/4529 and 1/459.

The 1/1000 figure is well within both ranges, because it is reasonable to get 4 or 6 wins out of 5000 at a 1/1000.

Your suggestion of 1/64 for 2nd prize would be like giving a probability of less than 1/3 million for Dural Gold - it simply doesn't fit the data I have at all. It's not consistent.

Furthermore, saying "a nearly 500 change in denominator" is irrelevant - there's a lot more difference between 1/1 and 1/500 than there is between 1/1000000 and 1/1000500.

I've won 2nd prize 72 times from 3360 attempts. The chance of this happening with a 1/64 probability of winning is minuscule.

Similarly, the Dural Gold at a 1/1024 probability the chances of not having won any by now are minuscule enough that it can be ruled out.

 

[Torsvik]

A good point and well made.