Shenmue IV Will Happen - Here's Why!

I *do* think A.I. has a lot of potential when it comes to finding new ways to process more advanced graphical techniques, such as raytracing.

I think it could be a real boon in both enabling new systems like PS6 to be far more powerful or graphical engines to do things more efficiently.
 
spud1897 said:
I answer that here:


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Interesting. If Suzuki is determined to shoot for the same quality as S3 AND maintain the size/scope of the story then it's impossible for him to get it done in one more game for the type of budget he'll be working under. The only options assuming anyone is willing to give him money is that he maintains S3's general presentation fidelity and truncates the story for one final entry or he dramatically reinvents Shenmue as a lower budget, almost like an indie game (I'm talking 2D or 2.5D, no voice acting or limited only to cutscenes) and gives himself the tools he needs to make the series as long as he wants. I wouldn't even mind if he started from the beginning again as it would help maintain a consistent authorial voice.

What would be the smartest course of action IMO is to take the ~$7M figure as your baseline for your profits so the cost to develop each installment should be well under that. You could also charge a premium for each chapter (say ~$30 each give or take) and release them more frequently, not quite "episodic" because each Shenmue chapter is pretty substantial, but this of course assumes a lot about the forthcoming chapters.

The truth of the matter is that Shenmue isn't going to be profitable with a budget of $20M and it isn't going to get a budget of $100+M. Everything is a trade-off.
 
iknifaugood said:
Interesting. If Suzuki is determined to shoot for the same quality as S3 AND maintain the size/scope of the story then it's impossible for him to get it done in one more game for the type of budget he'll be working under. The only options assuming anyone is willing to give him money is that he maintains S3's general presentation fidelity and truncates the story for one final entry or he dramatically reinvents Shenmue as a lower budget, almost like an indie game (I'm talking 2D or 2.5D, no voice acting or limited only to cutscenes) and gives himself the tools he needs to make the series as long as he wants. I wouldn't even mind if he started from the beginning again as it would help maintain a consistent authorial voice.

What would be the smartest course of action IMO is to take the ~$7M figure as your baseline for your profits so the cost to develop each installment should be well under that. You could also charge a premium for each chapter (say ~$30 each give or take) and release them more frequently, not quite "episodic" because each Shenmue chapter is pretty substantial, but this of course assumes a lot about the forthcoming chapters.

The truth of the matter is that Shenmue isn't going to be profitable with a budget of $20M and it isn't going to get a budget of $100+M. Everything is a trade-off.
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It depends in terms of scope and story. I'm not on my PC right now but in interviews he has stated that he 'could' finish it with a 4th game.

So theoretically there's a satisfactory way he could finish this off in one more game. Quite what that is I don't know. If he's going to maintain the current feel then using the 3 engine is a must. They've not got the time or money to do a whole new 3d engine.
 
2015
"Over the past 14 years, I originally planned for there to 4 or 5 games to the series"
www.polygon.com

Shenmue creator: Story has 11 chapters, ideally '4 or 5 games' in the series

Yu Suzuki, the creator of the Shenmue series, staged an AMA on Reddit yesterday evening and revealed that 11 chapters make up the full Shenmue story, which returns soon with the Kickstarted Shenmue...
www.polygon.com www.polygon.com
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2014
"The story is far away from being completed and to be honest, I do not think that it's possible to end it during Shenmue III. If I had to do it my way, players would experience the ending during Shenmue V. But that seems to be a lot so I'm going to try to finish it within the next 2 games."
segaretro.org

Interview: Yu Suzuki (2014-09-18) by Shenmue Dojo - Sega Retro

segaretro.org segaretro.org
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Yu Suzuki has said that while ending Shenmue in a 3rd game would've been impossible, it could technically be done in a 4th game but a 5th game would be ideal.

If it is true that YS Net are struggling with Shenmue 4's development in terms of finding a publisher four years later (I really hope that's based on assumption and not on any evidence because that would be extremely depressing if true), I don't think this series has the luxury of a 5th game.
 
Revan said:
2015


2014


Yu Suzuki has said that while ending Shenmue in a 3rd game would've been impossible, it could technically be done in a 4th game but a 5th game would be ideal.

If it is true that YS Net are struggling with Shenmue 4's development in terms of finding a publisher four years later (I really hope that's based on assumption and not on any evidence because that would be extremely depressing if true), I don't think this series has the luxury of a 5th game.
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Hopefully it’s just assumption that they haven’t found a publisher and i think that too that shenmue doesn’t have the luxury of doing a 5th game
 
I think shenmue 4 has the potential to be a better game why? because that was YSNET’s first console game and they had limited time and resources and like 60 percent or something like that was spent on fixing the engine for shenmue 4 the engine is already there and the success of the anime they can get a bigger budget
 
iknifaugood said:
Without knowing the exact amount of money that Shenmue 3 made or sales figures, we have no way of knowing for sure how modest the success was. We know that, after 4 years, Shenmue 4 is nowhere to be found and Suzuki's next game was a mobile arcade game. That tells you everything you need to know.
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Maybe Suzuki just wanted to make a small game as a change of pace?
 
bcdcdude said:
Maybe Suzuki just wanted to make a small game as a change of pace?
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He was contacted by Apple themselves asking him to do a game for Apple Arcade.
We also know that YSNet has other projects on the go, Yu has said this himself too.
It's not as bad as iknifau is making it out to be, as usual.
 
Dietsoap said:
That makes it seem like it got a big retrospective boost from the success of the sequel.
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exactly
They actively invested in the series by releasing a sequel one year later, and that helped to establish the franchise and boost sales on both chapter 1 and the sequel.
That's the correct way to do things.
 
Sonoshee said:
He was contacted by Apple themselves asking him to do a game for Apple Arcade.
We also know that YSNet has other projects on the go, Yu has said this himself too.
It's not as bad as iknifau is making it out to be, as usual.
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bcdcdude said:
Maybe Suzuki just wanted to make a small game as a change of pace?
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If he was contacted by a publisher to make Shenmue 4, he'd be making Shenmue 4. You don't seriously think he'd be working on mobile games for four years with no word on the future of Shenmue by choice, do you?

spud1897 said:
It depends in terms of scope and story. I'm not on my PC right now but in interviews he has stated that he 'could' finish it with a 4th game.

So theoretically there's a satisfactory way he could finish this off in one more game. Quite what that is I don't know. If he's going to maintain the current feel then using the 3 engine is a must. They've not got the time or money to do a whole new 3d engine.
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I agree that a new engine is off the table, but from everything Suzuki has said there's still ~60% of the story left so if he wraps it up in 1 more game, no matter what it's going to feel different from everything that's come before. It will either be much longer or much denser/faster paced. When it comes to pure numbers, finishing 60% of the story at the same level of quality as S3 will require a huge budget, even if he cuts stuff.

Suzaku said:
They actively invested in the series by releasing a sequel one year later, and that helped to establish the franchise and boost sales on both chapter 1 and the sequel.
That's the correct way to do things.
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More like: the Yakuza games were made for budgets that allowed for profits to justify continuing the series. That's the way sequels get made. You're acting like there's some nefarious plot against Shenmue when the reality is that, through a combination of bad luck and general mismanagement, S1 and 2 had huge budgets that the games were incredibly unlikely to recoup given the circumstances of their release. Unfair as that may have been, by some miracle, Suzuki got the chance to make a third game so the failure of that game to earn a sequel is squarely on him/YSNet, not Sega. If S3 was a huge hit, Sega would 100% fund it without question.
 
Suzaku said:
You mean Yakuza 1?
We should also mention that it reached 800k in at least 2-3 years iirc, with multiple budget releases.

My old post with the official japanese numbers for Yakuza:

"2005
-Yakuza 1 - 232.650 copies total at the end of the year

2006
-Yakuza 1 - 345.323 copies total at the end of the year
etc.

"Yakuza 1 (3 releases, lifetime sales from 2005 to 2008): 883.179 copies"
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Only saying this once, as we've been over this to death.

But these numbers are not correct.
 
iknifaugood said:
If he was contacted by a publisher to make Shenmue 4, he'd be making Shenmue 4. You don't seriously think he'd be working on mobile games for four years with no word on the future of Shenmue by choice, do you?
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Yeah, because Shenmue IV would work wonders on Apple Arcade.

And who is to say Shenmue IV isn't being worked on in the background? Didn't Air Twister take a year or so to be made? Hasn't YsNet expanded their offices in recent years? It doesn't make a lot of sense that their offices would be expanded to make only a single mobile game does it? Something must be going on in the last few years to keep the lights on.

Christ in a cracker; in a way I respect you because your comments are pretty intelligent, but good lord you're a miserable goat at times.
 
bcdcdude said:
And who is to say Shenmue IV isn't being worked on in the background?
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Suzuki said that. At least he went from saying that he was reasonably sure it would happen in 2020 to then saying that there were no plans in 2022. If you think it's currently being worked on then you're very optimistic but, even if it were being worked on, I think a lot of fans would be rightly angry if Suzuki left them in the dark for years while secretly having news to share.

bcdcdude said:
Christ in a cracker; in a way I respect you because your comments are pretty intelligent, but good lord you're a miserable goat at times.
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I thought you (and @Sonoshee ) were implying that Suzuki could have been working on S4 and instead opted to work on mobile games by choice or as some kind of palette cleanser, which does not paint a very nice picture of him from where I'm sitting. I shouldn't have assumed.
 
iknifaugood said:
Suzuki said that. At least he went from saying that he was reasonably sure it would happen in 2020 to then saying that there were no plans in 2022. If you think it's currently being worked on then you're very optimistic but, even if it were being worked on, I think a lot of fans would be rightly angry if Suzuki left them in the dark for years while secretly having news to share.


I thought you (and @Sonoshee ) were implying that Suzuki could have been working on S4 and instead opted to work on mobile games by choice or as some kind of palette cleanser, which does not paint a very nice picture of him from where I'm sitting. I shouldn't have assumed.
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He’s probably just saying that there are no plans because he doesn’t want to simply say anything or just simply announce it but that’s just from what i think i think shenmue 4 is definitely being worked on there not going to expand their offices just for mobile games
 
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