Random Shenmue IV Thoughts.

[WuyingRen]

Would it be worth it if Shenmue 4 was a lifetime exclusive to Epic Games? The only thing I wonder about is if Epic Games goes belly up. Is there a way for you download and keep the game separate from the Epic Games launcher?

The way things are going I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump bans Epic Games in the US. I’m also expecting the number of Epic exclusivity deals to decrease dramatically as their publishing arm grows.

I do think a publishing deal with Epic might be an avenue worth investigating and another Epic exclusivity deal would be well worth it if they could agree to it and get a similar amount, but a lifetime exclusivity deal would have to be worth a hell of a lot.

 

[BruceWayne911]

The way things are going I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump bans Epic Games in the US. I’m also expecting the number of Epic exclusivity deals to decrease dramatically as their publishing arm grows.

I do think a publishing deal with Epic might be an avenue worth investigating and another Epic exclusivity deal would be well worth it if they could agree to it and get a similar amount, but a lifetime exclusivity deal would have to be worth a hell of a lot.

Well the people who wanted to experience Shenmue 3 already have. I dont see alot of people holding out for a Shenmue 3 steam release. I just worry about these all digital services especially if they don't have a way for you to enjoy the game if things go bellyup. We have already lost so great games due to digital only platforms.

What is Trump doing that might ban Epic Games?

 

[WuyingRen]

Well the people who wanted to experience Shenmue 3 already have. I dont see alot of people holding out for a Shenmue 3 steam release. I just worry about these all digital services especially if they don't have a way for you to enjoy the game if things go bellyup. We have already lost so great games due to digital only platforms.

What is Trump doing that might ban Epic Games?

He’s trying to ban WeChat and Tik Tok over fears that they’re being used as a way for the Chinese to harvest data on American citizens. As Tencent owns WeChat, and are also heavily invested in Epic Games, I wouldn’t be too surprised if they’re next on the list. Truth be told there’s very little Trump could do to surprise me.

 

[GhostTrick]

Why would Shenmue IV be a lifetime exclusive ?
I dont see the incentive for them at all. I'm not even sure their store will still be around in 4 or 5 years. And even then, I dont see the incentive for them to inject millions in a game which barely sold on their store nor that is generating hype or good word of mouth.

Heck, the sole reason Shenmue III was exclusive to begin with has more to do with Deep Silver than Shenmue.

 

[Sonoshee]

inject millions in a game which barely sold on their store nor that is generating hype or good word of mouth.

Do we have official figures?
As for not generating good word of mouth, there seems to be a lot of positive reviews out there, too.

 

[Creward]

Why would Shenmue IV be a lifetime exclusive ?
I dont see the incentive for them at all. I'm not even sure their store will still be around in 4 or 5 years. And even then, I dont see the incentive for them to inject millions in a game which barely sold on their store nor that is generating hype or good word of mouth.

Heck, the sole reason Shenmue III was exclusive to begin with has more to do with Deep Silver than Shenmue.

Why do you not see the store around in 5 years? They have the money, they have their own 1st party games and they already had the launcher for the unreal engine.

 

[GhostTrick]

Do we have official figures?
As for not generating good word of mouth, there seems to be a lot of positive reviews out there, too.

We dont. But the game didn't stay long in their charts. And when you see that some games not even selling well ranked there, it's telling a lot.

For the good word of mouth, sure there are people out there who had a good experience. There's also people who had the opposite. Looking at the big picture, the word about Shenmue 3 isn't that it's some sort of hidden that the press didn't understand. At best, the word is that fans liked it more or less.

Why do you not see the store around in 5 years? They have the money, they have their own 1st party games and they already had the launcher for the unreal engine.

Because they're failing to get engagement. People get the free games but barely buy anything there.
They have the money and they've been bleeding money for nearly 2 years on that store. Their 1st party output is far too limited to keep a store going. You dont do that by releasing 2 games a year.
In the first 4 months of 2020, the Epic store only saw 10 new releases. If it wasn't for them paying a shitload of money to give free titles to artificially boost their numbers, they'd be dead by now.[/QUOTE]

 

[BruceWayne911]

I know most PC users prefer Steam over Epic Games but as my kinfolk always say,"Money talks bullshit walks." I believe a lifetime Epic deal could be lucrative enough to guarantee a Shenmue 5. Shenmue is such a niche game I don't see people refusing to play it if only released on Epic. I'm 100% certain that gamers would review it though.

As far as Shenmue 3 not performing well on Epic we don't have the sales figures but even if that is the case it might not matter to Epic. I know Epic is a business and they want to make but Epic has made so much off investments, Fortnite and UE usage they're not concerned with individual gaming performances(IMO).

Epic exclusivity deals has already proven that most gamers will support titles they like day one no matter the software being used. The ultimate end game for Epic is to topple Steam. These exclusivity deals are allowing Epic to gain a larger footprint in the digital PC gaming market that Steam has always had a death grip on. I don't think Epic will beat out Steam but they are encroaching on Steam territory. Also Epic is giving developers a bigger slice of the pie and a even a bigger slice for using UE. If the pot is big enough for game development I say take it.

 

[GhostTrick]

I know most PC users prefer Steam over Epic Games but as my kinfolk always say,"Money talks bullshit walks." I believe a lifetime Epic deal could be lucrative enough to guarantee a Shenmue 5. Shenmue is such a niche game I don't see people refusing to play it if only released on Epic. I'm 100% certain that gamers would review it though.

As far as Shenmue 3 not performing well on Epic we don't have the sales figures but even if that is the case it might not matter to Epic. I know Epic is a business and they want to make but Epic has made so much off investments, Fortnite and UE usage they're not concerned with individual gaming performances(IMO).

Epic exclusivity deals has already proven that most gamers will support titles they like day one no matter the software being used. The ultimate end game for Epic is to topple Steam. These exclusivity deals are allowing Epic to gain a larger footprint in the digital PC gaming market that Steam has always had a death grip on. I don't think Epic will beat out Steam but they are encroaching on Steam territory. Also Epic is giving developers a bigger slice of the pie and a even a bigger slice for using UE. If the pot is big enough for game development I say take it.

And for that, they want titles that garner attention, positive attention. Regarding Shenmue III critical reception, IV is a tough sell.

As I said, III was exclusive because of Deep Silver. And I dont see Epic publishing Shenmue IV for the reason that it's not the same profil as the 3 other devs they're publishing. The critical reception just isn't there.

You're right when you say they may not care about individual performances, because sometimes, publishers funds titles for their portfolio quality.

But Shenmue 3 fell in neither categories after release: It wasn't a success, whenever commercially or critically. Nothing indicate that it sold bad, just that it sold fine enough compared to its cost. And reviews as a whole are rather mixed.

 

[BruceWayne911]

And for that, they want titles that garner attention, positive attention. Regarding Shenmue III critical reception, IV is a tough sell.

As I said, III was exclusive because of Deep Silver. And I dont see Epic publishing Shenmue IV for the reason that it's not the same profil as the 3 other devs they're publishing. The critical reception just isn't there.

You're right when you say they may not care about individual performances, because sometimes, publishers funds titles for their portfolio quality.

But Shenmue 3 fell in neither categories after release: It wasn't a success, whenever commercially or critically. Nothing indicate that it sold bad, just that it sold fine enough compared to its cost. And reviews as a whole are rather mixed.

I see your point I actually don't think Shenmue 3 sold that well(pure speculation). Maybe Yu and his partners may convince Epic that Shenmue 3 was the foundation and now that they have lots of assets in place Shenmue 4 will have a higher ceiling. They may also be waiting for sales data to see if sales are higher on either software before negotiating again.

I don't have a PC at the moment but I was onEpic Games website yesterday and their game selection looks very slim. Epic might have to just start throwing money around to increase volume. Also gane sales are extremely high due to the pandemic, people need ways to entertain themselves.

 

[spud1897]

Remember it did do financially fine and we don't have actual sales numbers beyond week one so sales wise it's all guess work at this stage.

 

[GhostTrick]

I see your point I actually don't think Shenmue 3 sold that well(pure speculation). Maybe Yu and his partners may convince Epic that Shenmue 3 was the foundation and now that they have lots of assets in place Shenmue 4 will have a higher ceiling. They may also be waiting for sales data to see if sales are higher on either software before negotiating again.

I don't have a PC at the moment but I was onEpic Games website yesterday and their game selection looks very slim. Epic might have to just start throwing money around to increase volume. Also gane sales are extremely high due to the pandemic, people need ways to entertain themselves.

The point is that it's not a game that Epic or any other publisher might rush to sign and more of a case of YsNet having to convince partners. As for sales data... It sounds really awkward that neither parties have access to those.

Remember it did do financially fine and we don't have actual sales numbers beyond week one so sales wise it's all guess work at this stage.

Hence why I'm saying it did neither bad or good.
If the game was a success, the publisher would've said so sooner.

We may never get sale numbers and while we can speculate, there are actual hints around the game performance.

Point being : Shenmue 3 wasnt a commercial success. The game didnt sell a shitload of copies. By that I'm not saying it sold bad. I'm saying it didn't sell a shitload of copies to the point any publisher would run toward it to sign the next success.

For Epic to wish to sign IV as a selling point, III would either needed to have been a game shifting a shitload of copies or a game with a great critical reception. The game falls under neither categories.

As for sales data, while we dont know numbers beyond first week, we also know the game quickly left the charts.

 

[spud1897]

The point is that it's not a game that Epic or any other publisher might rush to sign and more of a case of YsNet having to convince partners. As for sales data... It sounds really awkward that neither parties have access to those.




Hence why I'm saying it did neither bad or good.
If the game was a success, the publisher would've said so sooner.

We may never get sale numbers and while we can speculate, there are actual hints around the game performance.

Point being : Shenmue 3 wasnt a commercial success. The game didnt sell a shitload of copies. By that I'm not saying it sold bad. I'm saying it didn't sell a shitload of copies to the point any publisher would run toward it to sign the next success.

For Epic to wish to sign IV as a selling point, III would either needed to have been a game shifting a shitload of copies or a game with a great critical reception. The game falls under neither categories.

As for sales data, while we dont know numbers beyond first week, we also know the game quickly left the charts.

I'd be intrigued to know if Cedric ever got them, that or they're waiting for the other PC releases before giving those out, which seems odd. They must know by now surely?

Maybe but often you don't get sales numbers until approaching 1million, I've seen the odd 500k sales announcement over time but that's it.

While this is true, many games leave the charts after a couple of weeks. Does that mean they're a failure in sales? Not necessarily. We also have to consider, as much as I don't like it, the game was discounted reasonably quickly so sales numbers may not mean as much, depending on how much was sold at each price point.

With any publisher they will need to see a return on their investment, either directly or indirectly. Shenmue IV, if done correctly could be a game that is considered a loss leader for want of a better phrase if it makes the improvements we've discussed in previous threads. It's never going to sell gangbusters unless it has a major overhaul and in that it may lose the essence of what Shenmue is.

 

[GhostTrick]

I'd be intrigued to know if Cedric ever got them, that or they're waiting for the other PC releases before giving those out, which seems odd. They must know by now surely?

Maybe but often you don't get sales numbers until approaching 1million, I've seen the odd 500k sales announcement over time but that's it.

While this is true, many games leave the charts after a couple of weeks. Does that mean they're a failure in sales? Not necessarily. We also have to consider, as much as I don't like it, the game was discounted reasonably quickly so sales numbers may not mean as much, depending on how much was sold at each price point.

With any publisher they will need to see a return on their investment, either directly or indirectly. Shenmue IV, if done correctly could be a game that is considered a loss leader for want of a better phrase if it makes the improvements we've discussed in previous threads. It's never going to sell gangbusters unless it has a major overhaul and in that it may lose the essence of what Shenmue is.

You're right about games leaving charts after a couple of weeks. But Shenmue III barely charted in the first week and was out the second or so.

Then again, my point wasn't to say it sold bad but that if it was a success, the kind of success that sell million of copies and that would make any publisher want to have the next game in their publishing duties, we would know by now.

But then again, that point was made in a discussion about Epic wanting to fully fund a 4th game and have it forever exclusive. There's no incentives imo for them to do that.

 

[BruceWayne911]

The more I think about it "Financial Fine" is probably good news seeing as how 6 million came from the fans. At this point they're probably waiting for the Steam release to allocate a budget for Shenmue 4. I have no proof of this but I'm going to believe this anyway.

 

[Down by Law]

Steam release is a bit of a dark horse - I mean, if I had to put money on it I would not expect it to sell well at all. There's a silent majority there though that will buy stuff that takes an interest. I can see older gamers who don't really get into youtube drama and grief who will just buy it out of sheer curiosity or nostalgia for the originals. I hope to be pleasantly surprised but expect the worst (standard Shenmue fan mindset I think ) regardless, a poor Steam performance won't effect Shenmue IV at this point either IMO. Metacritic isn't the be-all and end all either, Fall Guys sitting on 78 and selling fucking millions of copies. It just captured the market at the right time.

What I can't understand is why Epic didn't do a tie-in with Fortnite with their exclusives? Buy Control, and get a Jeese skin? Buy Shenmue, and turn all the trolleys into Forklifts? Have they seen how much exclusive skin DLC codes go for on ebay? Probably would sell more copies of the game just to keep those in Fortnite skin FOMO happy. Who cares if it's awkward, a sales a sale at the end of the day. Bit of an own goal by Epic IMO

 

[blixt]

I really want Ryo to find Xiuyings brother in IV. Who is he and why did he leave? What is his personality like and what can Ryo learn from him? (Yu can't just skip this part. No way. I want to know.)

They could make an emotional scene where Xiuying reunite with her brother. If the scene is well made I think it can be a very memorable Shenmue-moment.

And besides that. I want to see Xiuying again because she's not only a well designed character but she's also very mysterious. Like she's hiding something. She could teach Ryo another move and sparr with him as well.

I also wanted to see Gui zhang again but.. he doesn't serve any purpose to the story any more. Same with Joy and Wong. Keeping the phone calls is a good way to compensate that. I hope Ren will be given more of a personality and some time to develop. He just showed up from nowhere in Niaowu with no explanation of how he got there of all places, and why.

I also hope for more ´romance´ between Shenhua and Ryo. It sounds kinda silly but you know what I mean..
When they arrive to the starting point of Sh IV, they need to take a break after that long walk. Sharing a bed could be a good start. That would be fun and akward. While Ren could sleep on the couch.
Ryo has already shared the same room with Xiuying so why not. He is ready now for step 2. He can't be a robot forever.
Or maybe that's a bit too much..

Jokes aside. There may be 1 or 2 games left to finish the series so therefore I expect significant development of the main characters.

Last thing. What about that mysterious scroll? A code written as a poem. But for what, is it a move? What move?
- I hope Yu gives us the answer in IV

 

[BruceWayne911]

I really want Ryo to find Xiuyings brother in IV. Who is he and why did he leave? What is his personality like and what can Ryo learn from him? (Yu can't just skip this part. No way. I want to know.)

They could make an emotional scene where Xiuying reunite with her brother. If the scene is well made I think it can be a very memorable Shenmue-moment.

And besides that. I want to see Xiuying again because she's not only a well designed character but she's also very mysterious. Like she's hiding something. She could teach Ryo another move and sparr with him as well.

I also wanted to see Gui zhang again but.. he doesn't serve any purpose to the story any more. Same with Joy and Wong. Keeping the phone calls is a good way to compensate that. I hope Ren will be given more of a personality and some time to develop. He just showed up from nowhere in Niaowu with no explanation of how he got there of all places, and why.

I also hope for more ´romance´ between Shenhua and Ryo. It sounds kinda silly but you know what I mean..
When they arrive to the starting point of Sh IV, they need to take a break after that long walk. Sharing a bed could be a good start. That would be fun and akward. While Ren could sleep on the couch.
Ryo has already shared the same room with Xiuying so why not. He is ready now for step 2. He can't be a robot forever.
Or maybe that's a bit too much..

Jokes aside. There may be 1 or 2 games left to finish the series so therefore I expect significant development of the main characters.

Last thing. What about that mysterious scroll? A code written as a poem. But for what, is it a move? What move?
- I hope Yu gives us the answer in IV

I have a feeling Shenmue 4&5 are going to be jam packed with action and story. We are only a little over 40% through the story, we've got alot of ground to cover. I hope Yu continues to make up lost ground with story based DLC.

 

[Revan]

I have a feeling Shenmue 4&5 are going to be jam packed with action and story. We are only a little over 40% through the story, we've got alot of ground to cover. I hope Yu continues to make up lost ground with story based DLC.

Yu Suzuki plans for Shenmue 4 to solve all (or at least a majority) of the mysteries he has created at this point and for it to have a slightly accelerated pace. So I think that Shenmue 4 most definitely will be more action-packed with a bigger focus on advancing the plot just like in Shenmue 2, rather than the greater focus on deep immersive world exploration and gameplay which we got in Shenmue 1 & 3.

"I’d like to deliver a smoother experience for those people who wish to advance rapidly through the story. If it has the same amount of content as Shenmue III, then you’ll be able to move through it about 1.5 times as quickly...Of course, regarding the main story, the backstory will be rapidly filled out, for example I’d like to shed light on Shenhua’s background and about what kind of person Ren is, and resolve the mysteries that have been created until this point." - https://www.phantomriverstone.com/2020/04/yu-suzuki-interview-reflecting-on.html

​

 

[Down by Law]

YS: How Shenmue III was seen by people who don’t know Shenmue is something that, from a business point of view, needs to be understood, right? And so I analyzed what new gamers weren’t happy with, making various educated guesses about what they meant by their comments and giving them my sincere consideration, although it was painful [laughs].

As a general rule you don't give consideration and actively seek out criticism on a project you have no intention of returning too so I think a lot of the wording in this interview has been carefully considered to "say nothing but tell everything" if you catch my drift.

YS: Everyone talks about the lack of throw moves, so I’ll be putting throw moves in for the next one! [laughs]