Did Shenmue 3 hurt the series?

[Mr Sun]

It may be true but I don't consider that Shenmue 3 may have cost $20m and surely not $30m for that with the technology available today for gaming development Shenmue 3 had to be the complete package or at least Niaowu should have had the same quality as Bailu village.

$20mil was apparently from a quote from Yu himself, although possibly not all of that went into actual development. The $30mil was speculating on the budget of a potential Shenmue 4.

 

[WuyingRen]

The question there is what they may have been basing that assumption on? I know Shenmue 1 did well on the DC in terms of sales. Shenmue II suffered due to the DC and the Xbox taking it over.

I assume the re-releases did fairly well but not close to a million sales and it came out after they came on board.

Unless they thought the kickstarter hype would carry it over?

One imagines the Kickstarter breaking records had a lot to do with it. Unfortunately I think the window between the announcement and release was just far too long for any of the hype (which had long since dissipated) to translate into sales. Who knows - but a business doesn’t invest that kind of money without expecting to see some kind of return.

It may be true but I don't consider that Shenmue 3 may have cost $20m and surely not $30m for that with the technology available today for gaming development Shenmue 3 had to be the complete package or at least Niaowu should have had the same quality as Bailu village.

As Mr Sun points out, the ‘around $20m’ comes from Yu himself in an interview with IGN Japan earlier this year. The $30m+ being sought is speculation based on Cedric’s recent tweet stating that they needed ‘a much bigger budget than Shenmue 3’.

 

[Sergeynest]

$20mil was apparently a quote from Yu himself, although possibly not all of that went into actual development. The $30mil was speculating on the budget of a potential Shenmue 4.

If they think they need that kind of budget for Shenmue IV then I'm even more affraid to think how many copies they would have to sell to turn in a sizeable profit.

I believe that in order for them to have a clear vision of what kind of budget they need for Shenmue IV they have to know exactly how many digital and physical they have sold with Shenmue 3 to make an estimation of how much they can spend on a realisitc budget for Shenmue 4 and adapt the game development to that budget in order for them to still make a profit with the game.
I would be extremly surprised if they wanted to make Shenmue 4 with totally new assets for the game building a new fighting system, new animations and so on...
If they don't reuse the tools that they already have in the development of Shenmue IV then I can say that there is almost 0 chance for Shenmue 4 to see the light of day.
And seriously; do the fans even care about that !? They could have given us Shenmue 3 with Dreamcast graphics all the same that we would have loved it anyway.
By the way with the Anime coming out the best thing that they can do is maintain the same style they used in Shenmue 3 on Shenmue 4; they just need to give more atention to the main characters and the ones that are involved in the plot and try to have a more cohesive design allround.

 

[spud1897]

One imagines the Kickstarter breaking records had a lot to do with it. Unfortunately I think the window between the announcement and release was just far too long for any of the hype (which had long since dissipated) to translate into sales. Who knows - but a business doesn’t invest that kind of money without expecting to see some kind of return.

I'd agree, though it definitely needed the delays it got and probably could have benefited from another (though it would have been hammered for being delayed again.)

It does beg a question over the initial idea to make Shenmue III with 3 areas from the initial Kickstarter proposal. Was it the right thing to do, could they have honed in on Bailu only? But would that have gathered the hype that the Kickstarter we had did?

I just wonder what the rationale was here. I don't want to undersell the franchise at all but basing a decision off of the Kickstarter hype train was a very dangerous move from a business perspective as there's no promise of it materialising into sales. Also add in a trailer from 2017 (which got over 1 million views) that people wider of community ridiculed with other PR mistakes you can see why sales probably didn't come up better, certainly from a wider audience. Also, that's without considering they would have to sell the 3rd part of the story to that wider audience.

 

[Sergeynest]

One imagines the Kickstarter breaking records had a lot to do with it. Unfortunately I think the window between the announcement and release was just far too long for any of the hype (which had long since dissipated) to translate into sales. Who knows - but a business doesn’t invest that kind of money without expecting to see some kind of return.

As Mr Sun points out, the ‘around $20m’ comes from Yu himself in an interview with IGN Japan earlier this year. The $30m+ being sought is speculation based on Cedric’s recent tweet stating that they needed ‘a much bigger budget than Shenmue 3’.

I know that Yu Suzuki said in an interview that Shenmue 3's total cost was $20m and I still cant believe it.
A $30m budget for Shenmue 4 in my opinion is way to high for an indie title and I dont believe Shenmue 4 can make that kind of money let alone be profitable enough for a sequel.

 

[Sergeynest]

I'd agree, though it definitely needed the delays it got and probably could have benefited from another (though it would have been hammered for being delayed again.)

It does beg a question over the initial idea to make Shenmue III with 3 areas from the initial Kickstarter proposal. Was it the right thing to do, could they have honed in on Bailu only? But would that have gathered the hype that the Kickstarter we had did?

I just wonder what the rationale was here. I don't want to undersell the franchise at all but basing a decision off of the Kickstarter hype train was a very dangerous move from a business perspective as there's no promise of it materialising into sales. Also add in a trailer from 2017 (which got over 1 million views) that people wider of community ridiculed with other PR mistakes you can see why sales probably didn't come up better, certainly from a wider audience. Also, that's without considering they would have to sell the 3rd part of the story to that wider audience.

Deep Silver; Koch Media aren't stupid; surely they saw the numbers and made some predictions that's why they forced the exclusivity deal with Epic Games because its cash in first and sales later not to mention that they have done it with other titles as well like Metro Exodus, Outward etc...
Either they made a deal with Ys Net and turned in some extra cash for Shenmue 4's development to make more profit this time around or they just simply bailed out after making enough profit that had covered their initial investment and called it a day after that.

 

[spud1897]

Deep Silver; Koch Media aren't stupid; surely they saw the numbers and made some predictions that's why they forced the exclusivity deal with Epic Games because its cash in first and sales later not to mention that they have done it with other titles as well like Metro Exodus, Outward etc...
Either they made a deal with Ys Net and turned in some extra cash for Shenmue 4's development to make more profit this time around or they just simply bailed out after making enough profit that had covered their initial investment and called it a day after that.

I personally think it's the latter. Got their profit and bailed. Makes sense if it make some funds for them. I don't think they've come in on Shenmue 4.

 

[WuyingRen]

I personally think it's the latter. Got their profit and bailed. Makes sense if it make some funds for them. I don't think they've come in on Shenmue 4.

In their defense, why would they?

Whilst the Epic deal may have had an impact on sales, I expect it brought in considerably more than it lost and would be surprised if it had any impact at all on console sales.

If ‘fine’ is the best the game can do with a (presumably) sizable lump sum from an exclusivity deal, how are they supposed to respond when Yu starts asking them for 2 or 3 times the investment for another game?

I’m a little conflicted really. I applaud Yu’s optimism and ambition when it comes to making a fourth game, but part of me just thinks that it’s just not realistic.

I do believe that it’s possible for him to make a great game that strikes all the right chords with the average gamer, but the thing will have to be dammed near perfect. The first hurdle is obviously going to be finding somebody willing to fund such an endeavor, which in itself seems just as daunting a task as creating a near perfect game.

 

[Revan]

I'm sure there are those who try to do anything to make S3 sound bad but that's not what I'm doing. You're not comparing apples to apples in this instance because you're shifting the discussion between two points: how S1 and 2 handle Ryo learning moves and how they handle Ryo training. The two moves that Ryo learns in S3 are not comparable to moves that Ryo learns in S1 and 2 because Ryo learns several moves in those games, they're explained the way they are because they have to correspond to the controller inputs since, unlike S3, they can be used at will during combat, and can you imagine how annoying it would be if everyone who taught you a move in S1 and 2 made you jump through the hoops that Sun and Bei do?

As I said, there is nothing wrong with how S1 and S2 function as games (mind you, no game is perfect). So, the whole ‘take two steps then punch’ instruction is fine, I was the one who brought up that the reason this is done is to instruct the player via the VMU, so I am aware what is happening here. It’s just that S3 merely tries something new. It shows the memorisation of a move far more deeply over a more significant period this time around. It's far more fleshed out than, say, Ryo mastering Demon’s Drop from Master Baihu just by watching. Granted, you cannot use the Body Check/Reverse Body Check in-game, which is a fair criticism, but neither could you use Demon’s Triangle or the Predictive Explosion in S2 – both moves are pretty much useless. In S3, Ryo uses two moves in the game’s QTEs which is at least trying to make the moves more purposeful.

I don’t think criticising S3 for putting the player through hoops is fair. From the forklift job in S1, to the halting of any progress until the player earns money, to the book airing in S2 – this series has put players through a grind from the beginning. It's just that now, it's being applied to a section of the game where Ryo is learning some kung fu, and…suddenly this is all a bit too noticeable and far too egregious for you? Besides, Ryo has been put through a grind to learn moves before in the series: he learns the Horseshoe Kick at Man Mo Temple if the player manages to air out 10 piles of books. Where's your criticism there?

I'm mainly concerned with Shenmue from a storytelling perspective because imo that's where the series really excels, and if you look at the storytelling difference between Xiuying's training and Sun's training then, well, that's the difference right there.

No, I agree. I personally do appreciate Xiuying’s storytelling scenes more.

I will say that part of what I disliked about the fact that learning moves was so pivotal to S3 (apart from how it butchers the portrayal of martial arts by implying the existence of magic counter moves) is that they took something that was a relatively simple task in S1 and 2 and hinged most of the plot on it. Learning a move is so anticlimactic when it's given "main quest" status imo.

If you have a problem with “magic counter moves” that the plot hinges on, I advise that you never play this game:

That's not how he learns JIE. Like all four wude, he learns it from a master; the only reason he needs to smash the rock is because the street performer makes him. Anyone can learn any/all of the four wude by simply having them explained to them, S2 adopts the "show, don't tell" model of storytelling, which I happen to think is very effective.

OK, he breaks JIE because he’s forced to by a street performer (?), then learns what JIE is before engaging in several street fights for money with buzzing crowds screaming in amazement. I’m confused as to what is being ‘shown’ here? Of course, none of this matters because Shenmue is interactive media, so making the player smash some rocks and do some street fights makes for some neat sequences. Also, isn't Ryo learning a move in gameplay instead of a cutscene, and feeling tested in the wine/bun quest (just like how forklifting simulated mild feelings of labour) not also “show, don’t tell” storytelling?

You have this completely backward; Ryo's goals are what matter (because that's what keeps him on the same page as the player). In S2 he needs to find Lishao Tao and Yuanda Zhu; there is no ticking clock to either objective. If he found out that Yuanda Zhu was kidnapped by the CYM and Xiuying knew where he was, then it would indeed suffer from the same problems as S3. The bad guys pursuing the mirrors are an existential threat and, at this point in the story, it's established that they either don't know that there are two mirrors, or that Iwao had both of them, so Ryo is relatively safe from that threat.

Not really. In Shenmue 1, Ryo receives a letter from Zhu warning of impending doom and putting him in touch with Yaowen Chen. You would have thought that Chen would have reached out in secret to Iwao given that the Hazuki residence is just down the road and people are coming to kill him for a mirror that will bring about the apocalypse. It's not like they can’t leave the Warehouse lest they be seen, Gui Zhang even travels one day as far as Sakuragaoka! However, Chen does nothing. Ryo uses his father’s passphrase on the phone, even saying in some versions of the conversation “Isn’t this the Chen residence? I received a letter – Oops!” so it's clear who this young guy must be. Yet Ryo has to jump through hoops to track down Chen who clearly knows who Ryo is (“Wait Gui Zhang!”) and what happened to him (“But it would appear this letter arrived too late”). You would have thought Chen would be more proactive given that Iwao’s life was at stake and he holds mirrors that could destroy the world, but he rests Ryo’s safety on a guess (“Perhaps [Lan Di] did not realise your father had both [mirrors]”). Then Chen writes a letter to Xiuying warning her of the situation which she refuses to read.

Again, none of this matters because it is a video game where a certain degree of real time or logic need not apply, and having Ryo go on a hunt makes for a neat interactive quest. So I struggle to see why Sun testing Ryo’s determination here in the story when Shenhua’s father is in peril is now suddenly such a glaring problem when we could at the previous games where characters are acting a bit irrationally when compared to how someone in real life. Heck, Ryo can choose to waste time buying capsule toys or playing arcade games in Kowloon while knowing that Yuanda Zhu is in danger!

All opinions are subjective. I don't think frustration is a very difficult emotion to incite from a player so I don't give a ton of credit no matter how "intentional" it is. Plus there are crazy mixed messages about these paywalls: are they supposed to be frustrating or not? People keep saying they're not frustrating (implying that if they were frustrating, that would be bad) because S3 is meant to be played slowly and you should have plenty of money but then others like you say it's supposed to be frustrating and that's a good thing. I think it's supposed to be frustrating and it's bad.

What about the forklift section in Shenmue 1 which tries to simulate the feelings of repetitive, boring labour, or the chore-like book airing? Fire up some Let’s Plays and tell me if you hear people cheering with excitement when these sequences start-up. The general response I hear (both online and offline) is “Oh for fuck sake!” But we as fans understand that Shenmue is a life simulator and there are challenges in life that test your patience, whether it be forklift jobs, book airing, carrying crates, walking planks, grinding for cash, getting robbed, or repeatedly fetching someone food. This is nothing new.

Then he's not learning anything is he?

“You’re young. You have to get crafty in order to buy it. You’ll never be able to learn a signature move if you give up. And besides, I wanted some good wine!”

The main point with this statement is that Sun was testing whether Ryo has the determination to not ‘give up’ on something as difficult as learning a signature move. He gave him a task for which he would need to get "crafty" to make it extra tough. This wasn’t about Ryo learning craftiness, he’s been crafty before (e.g. lying that he’ll get a gang tattoo to find a parlour in S1).

What lateral thinking? Ryo needs a lot of money so he... earns a lot of money? Would Sun have still trained him if he simply stole the wine?

Ryo buys Lao Ju at Tao-Get and the owner stops him saying “This isn’t something for as young as you.” Ryo uses persuasion on the owner saying he desperately needs it, and the owner irresponsibly lets him off while making a profit considering its an expensive item. The scene is brief (and could be longer), but it's there. Where did you get herb picking = craftiness from?

Ryo doesn't exhibit craftiness, he learns a magic move. If you know the magic counter-move, you can beat that opponent if not, no matter how much you train, you cannot according to S3. This is not done to demonstrate Ryo's craftiness and it sounds like you're just trying to blindly defend the game to paint it in a favorable light. This is not how martial arts is portrayed in S1 or 2. S3 is about Ryo learning those moves to beat those opponents; Karate Kid isn't about Jaden Smith learning that magic move to beat the bully--he actually is being crafty in that scene.

Ryo uses a “magic counter move” to defeat Dou Niu when all hope is lost because the immovable tank is just too powerful ("Damn...what shall I do?!). After clearing his mind, Ryo switches his strategy to insert the magic move into the fight at the appropriate time. He is being strategic, or "crafty". Dou Niu had the raw strength, but Ryo had a clearer mind and could make better judgements to call upon the right move when Dou Niu least expected it to finish the tank off "magically” in one-hit.

Also, I brought up that Jaden is being crafty in the scene, I never said it was all about a magic move, read my post again…

What's even more painful is that this same use of craftiness is in the very example you have been clutching onto this whole time as something Shenmue 3 needs to aspire to be more like...The Karate Kid reboot (!)



In the final fight, Dre (Jaden) is repeatedly beaten by his opponent whose strength is far too much for Jaden to match. Instead, Dre uses strategic thinking to switch his style to the Snake Stance which serves to confuse the thinking of the stronger bully. Dre uses this confusion to his advantage and then swiftly defeats him.

I am aware we are now derailing this thread and being a bit of a headache to others. Partly, I am to blame for this essay slinging contest, but I am going to draw my contribution to a close. I'll just have to agree to disagree here.

 

[spud1897]

In their defense, why would they?

Whilst the Epic deal may have had an impact on sales, I expect it brought in considerably more than it lost and would be surprised if it had any impact at all on console sales.

If ‘fine’ is the best the game can do with a (presumably) sizable lump sum from an exclusivity deal, how are they supposed to respond when Yu starts asking them for 2 or 3 times the investment for another game?

I’m a little conflicted really. I applaud Yu’s optimism and ambition when it comes to making a fourth game, but part of me just thinks that it’s just not realistic.

TBF being in Deep Silver's shoes I can see why they did it. Makes business sense and had sales been anything more than "fine" then it just lines their profits some more and maybe makes a 4th game more appealing to them.

I think on the face of it (from our view) it could be a hard sell to make a 4th game but we don't know what noises have been made behind the scenes byvarying stakeholders in the franchise.

I do believe that it’s possible for him to make a great game that strikes all the right chords with the average gamer, but the thing will have to be dammed near perfect. The first hurdle is obviously going to be finding somebody willing to fund such an endeavor, which in itself seems just as daunting a task as creating a near perfect game.

We've all discussed that they have the assets to make a Shenmue 4 from what they used in Shenmue III. So my query is what are they looking to do with a bigger budget. Fans would probably take Shenmue 4 with the Shenmue III graphics/presentation, polished up and with a better focus on the story but would that appeal to the more casual person? How does a larger budget allow them to appeal to a wider audience in a series that is 4 games deep (unless the anime takes off and helps people catch up, which it could do).

The ambition of going after a larger budget is admirable but I wonder who would go for that as an investor given Shenmue III sales haven't set the world alight and they're not going to have a substantial investment from fans this time around. It's not to say it can't happen but, realistically speaking, making that happen could be a tough job.

I also wonder how he would go about making that sort of game, one that appeals to us as core fans but also the average gamer. That's a tough ask.

 

[Sergeynest]

Let's make some estimations on Shenmue 4's possible budget and the kind of sales that it would have to generate in order to be considered profitable:

Budget : 20,000,000$
Profit Margin Goal: 10,000,000$
Game Price: 60$
Sales needed: 500,000 units
Game price 2: 40$
Sales needed: 750,000

Budget 2: 15,000,000$
Profit Margin Goal 7,500,000
Game Price 60$
Sales needed: 375,000 units
Game Price 2: 40$
Sales needed: 562,500 units

Budget 3: 10,000,000$
Profit Margin Goal: 5,000,000$
Game Price: 60$
Sales needed: 250,000 units
Game Price 2: 40$
Sales needed: 375,000 units

The budget covers all expenses needed for the game to be sold.

Which do you think will be better for Shenmue 4's chance of being profitable !?

 

[spud1897]

Let's make some estimation on Shenmue 4's possible budget and the kind of sales that it would have to generate in order to be considered profitable:

Budget : 20,000,000$
Profit Margin Goal: 10,000,000$
Game Price: 60$
Sales needed: 500,000 units
Game price 2: 40$
Sales needed: 750,000

Budget 2: 15,000,000$
Profit Margin Goal 7,500,000
Game Price 60$
Sales needed: 375,000 units
Game Price 2: 40$
Sales needed: 562,500 units

Budget 3: 10,000,000$
Profit Margin Goal: 5,000,000$
Game Price: 60$
Sales needed: 250,000 units
Game Price 2: 40$
Sales needed: 375,000 units

The budget covers all expenses needed for the game to be sold.

Which do you think will be better for Shenmue 4's chance of being profitable !?

It might be worth creating a separate topic for this. If you wanted to create one and copy over your post above that would work nicely. I think this going off at a tangent and while relevant is deterring from the OP discussion line.

 

[WuyingRen]

Let's make some estimations on Shenmue 4's possible budget and the kind of sales that it would have to generate in order to be considered profitable:

Budget : 20,000,000$
Profit Margin Goal: 10,000,000$
Game Price: 60$
Sales needed: 500,000 units
Game price 2: 40$
Sales needed: 750,000

Budget 2: 15,000,000$
Profit Margin Goal 7,500,000
Game Price 60$
Sales needed: 375,000 units
Game Price 2: 40$
Sales needed: 562,500 units

Budget 3: 10,000,000$
Profit Margin Goal: 5,000,000$
Game Price: 60$
Sales needed: 250,000 units
Game Price 2: 40$
Sales needed: 375,000 units

The budget covers all expenses needed for the game to be sold.

Which do you think will be better for Shenmue 4's chance of being profitable !?

Unfortunately, it doesn’t work like this. There are a plethora of costs that need to be taken into consideration, with manufacturing, distribution and retail costs taking up about half of the money generated through a game sale.

Edit: sorry Spud. Just saw your post.

 

[Sergeynest]

It might be worth creating a separate topic for this. If you wanted to create one and copy over your post above that would work nicely. I think this going off at a tangent and while relevant is deterring from the OP discussion line.

Good sugestion. I'm going to create one right now.

 

[Sergeynest]

Unfortunately, it doesn’t work like this. There are a plethora of costs that need to be taken into consideration, with manufacturing, distribution and retail costs taking up about half of the money generated through a game sale.

Edit: sorry Spud. Just saw your post.

I said that the budgets presented should cover all expenses for the game to be able to be sold.
You can make your own estimations and I would like that.
Since you are more keen on math you can make the Thread if you want to and present your calculations. Just answer if yes or no; otherwise I will make one.

 

[WuyingRen]

I said that the budgets presented should cover all expenses for the game to be able to be sold.
You can make your own estimations and I would like that.
Since you are more keen on math you can make the Thread if you want to and present your calculations. Just answer if yes or no; otherwise I will make one.

I’ll pass as I’m not sure we really need a thread on it, but feel free to make one if you think there’s discussion to be had. I might pop in to pass some time.

You might find this article useful.

 

[Sergeynest]

I’ll pass as I’m not sure we really need a thread on it, but feel free to make one if you think there’s discussion to be had. I might pop in to pass some time.

You might find this article useful.

Thank you that is really very usefull information. There is really more to it than it meats the eye.

 

[Guy-ManAfterAll]

Let's make some estimations on Shenmue 4's possible budget and the kind of sales that it would have to generate in order to be considered profitable:

Budget : 20,000,000$
Profit Margin Goal: 10,000,000$
Game Price: 60$
Sales needed: 500,000 units
Game price 2: 40$
Sales needed: 750,000

Budget 2: 15,000,000$
Profit Margin Goal 7,500,000
Game Price 60$
Sales needed: 375,000 units
Game Price 2: 40$
Sales needed: 562,500 units

Budget 3: 10,000,000$
Profit Margin Goal: 5,000,000$
Game Price: 60$
Sales needed: 250,000 units
Game Price 2: 40$
Sales needed: 375,000 units

The budget covers all expenses needed for the game to be sold.

Which do you think will be better for Shenmue 4's chance of being profitable !?

Did you take into account that the stores/hardware constructor (Sony, Microsoft, etc...) take 30% of every sells, and that when you physically buy a game, another 15% goes to the reseller/store ?

 

[Sergeynest]

Did you take into account that the stores/hardware constructor (Sony, Microsoft, etc...) take 30% of every sells, and that when you physically buy a game, another 15% goes to the reseller/store ?

@tomboz specified that in a previous post and linked me an article that examplifies what you are saying.
Unfortunately I didnt take that into account when I posted the values I mentioned.
I would like to create a thread where we could talk about this but I don't know if it will be worth it considering that the values may vary depending on the publisher, the deal between them and the studio and also the platform where the game will launch.
Nevertheless I can created the thread if you guys are interested in discussing this topic.

 

[Guy-ManAfterAll]

I think it could be worth it, yes