Embracer Q3 Report Presentation @ 9AM CET (3AM EST) 19-2-2020/2-19-2020

[Sheephead]

Even if DS did pocket 100% of the Epic money, it still helps YsNet out in the long run, as it means it has to sell less in order to recoup back the money poured into the project. It helps the game get back into the positive quicker, and thus makes the project look more attractive for investment in the future. Imagine how bad it would look if the project was in the red and it turned out that it lost them money... That doesn't look good for them, or for the future of Shenmue does it?

When you look at the money that the PC version of the game would make on Steam, versus the money that Epic would have given to DS (if we go with this rumour that DS took all the money), then it's still a good thing. Without that EGS deal, the game might not have met Deep Silvers expectations in regards to the money that they wanted back from the project. We know from other developers, that EGS have payed up to $10,000,000 for upfront sales. Do you think that the PC version of the game, if sold on Steam, would have been able to match the money that they received from EGS? Nope, never. Especially when you take into consideration that they would also have to pay the engine license fee of 5% (which was dropped with the EGS exclusivity), and would also have Steams 30/70 revenue split instead the 12/88 split that the Epic Store has. Now I know we don't have all the numbers (and more importantly the specifics) to the deal, and probably never will, but when you look at the the financial report coupled with the decision to go with EGS, it just logically makes sense, hence the reason they took the EGS deal.

Either way, Deep Silver are happy, the game managed to meet their expectations and I'm confident that we will see Shenmue IV in the future.

 

[GhostTrick]

Imagine how it looks bad that to be in the black, you need to take up a deal and have half the project being kickstarted to not lose money.

Especially when said publisher declare that "it's not a mass market product".

I feel like some people wants to only have a positive light out of it, instead of a more realistic one. I can understand being worried for the future of the IP. But hiding doesn't change much.

There are people telling me "imagine Yu Suzuki agreeing to that". Epic themselves said those deals takes place between them and the publisher. And when on top of that, people that we can trust are telling us Deep Silver pocketed the money, I don't see why we should doubt them.

Was that deal good for Deep Silver ? Definitely.

Was it good for Shenmue 3 ? Bad PR + Didn't even profit for game developpment. Instead you have a publisher that feel like they bailed out at the last minute on their investment.

I'm sorry I wish I could see it too in an overly positive light.

But "It did fine financially (as in it didnt lose money" and "I'm glad fans liked it but it's clearly not a mass market product" doesn't equate to "the game performed well !" "We're happy with the performance !".
It's especially worrying when a niche publisher is using those words.

So while there's indeed a good case to make thar Shenmue 3 didn't lose money, you can be sure that potential partners are looking at the following facts:
- The kickstarter money
- The deals that were done
- The copies sold
- The critical reception
- The good and bad PR

All brought together, I dont see a good result. I dont see a bad one either. It's basically mixed.

 

[Sh3ppy]

I feel like some people wants to only have a positive light out of it, instead of a more realistic one. I can understand being worried for the future of the IP. But hiding doesn't change much.

Thing is, those who disagree with your assessments (at least personally speaking), believe that we are approaching it from a realistic viewpoint. I find that you tend to approach things from a more negative standpoint and have been doing so since before the game was released. Now that’s fine and it’s your prerogative but it is a pattern. At the same time I admit that I prefer to look at things through a positive light, probably too much sometimes, although on this occasion my POV seems to make the most sense to me. As I said before, the truth is most likely somewhere in the middle as there most definitely are details re. these deals that none of us are privy to.

 

[GhostTrick]

Thing is, those who disagree with your assessments (at least personally speaking), believe that we are approaching it from a realistic viewpoint. I find that you tend to approach things from a more negative standpoint and have been doing so since before the game was released. Now that’s fine and it’s your prerogative but it is a pattern. At the same time I admit that I prefer to look at things through a positive light, probably too much sometimes, although on this occasion my POV seems to make the most sense to me. As I said before, the truth is most likely somewhere in the middle as there most definitely are details re. these deals that none of us are privy to.

Then again, I cant blame people for wanting to look at things in a positive light. No one wants to down their own mood with negativity.

 

[WuyingRen]

Imagine how it looks bad that to be in the black, you need to take up a deal and have half the project being kickstarted to not lose money.

Especially when said publisher declare that "it's not a mass market product".

I feel like some people wants to only have a positive light out of it, instead of a more realistic one. I can understand being worried for the future of the IP. But hiding doesn't change much.

There are people telling me "imagine Yu Suzuki agreeing to that". Epic themselves said those deals takes place between them and the publisher. And when on top of that, people that we can trust are telling us Deep Silver pocketed the money, I don't see why we should doubt them.

Was that deal good for Deep Silver ? Definitely.

Was it good for Shenmue 3 ? Bad PR + Didn't even profit for game developpment. Instead you have a publisher that feel like they bailed out at the last minute on their investment.

I'm sorry I wish I could see it too in an overly positive light.

But "It did fine financially (as in it didnt lose money" and "I'm glad fans liked it but it's clearly not a mass market product" doesn't equate to "the game performed well !" "We're happy with the performance !".
It's especially worrying when a niche publisher is using those words.

So while there's indeed a good case to make thar Shenmue 3 didn't lose money, you can be sure that potential partners are looking at the following facts:
- The kickstarter money
- The deals that were done
- The copies sold
- The critical reception
- The good and bad PR

All brought together, I dont see a good result. I dont see a bad one either. It's basically mixed.

The report said that new releases were in line with expectations. Unless you think DS pumped $5m into the game with a view to breaking even, I’d suggest that the game did better than breaking even.

Lars said that Shenmue wasn’t a AAA mass market game (yes, he did say ‘AAA’). This is simply a statement of fact. Why he felt the need to point this out is anybodies guess.

You seem to be inferring that he said this because the game sold badly. While this is possible, it’s somewhat contradictory to what we’ve heard elsewhere. He himself says that Shenmue 3 did ‘fine’ financially and the report highlights it as the key revenue driver for DS in Q3 (this not only includes let’s sing 2020, but also their entire back catalogue of games). If the game had sold badly, I’d imagine that the report would have said as much (as it did for one of Koch’s new releases).

I imagine he felt the need to say this as a response to the many articles that have branded Shenmue 3 as a failure because it ‘only sold 18,000 copies‘ in its opening week in Japan and the like. To me it was a ‘Hey, this isn’t GTA or Pokémon. It didn’t sell 1m+ copies, but it’s a low budget niche title with limited market appeal and it sold well enough for what it is’.

Nobody is doubting that it was DS who made the deal with Epic, but the point of contention is where the money went. We have somebody telling us that some unknown person told them about the deal. I have my doubts about this as there are probably only a handful of people who know about the deal and I doubt that any of them would be calling up some random French journalist to give him all of the details.

Moreover, he says that the money didn’t go into the production of the game, not that the money won’t be paid through to YSNet as part of their developer royalties from DS. YSNet agreed a deal wherein DS would pay them $X for every copy of the game sold. Deep Silver’s deal with Epic was for a purchase of X copies of the game. Logic dictates that YSNet did (or will, depending on when payments are made) receive their fair share of the money generated from the deal.

Was the deal good for Shenmue 3? Absolutely not. Was the deal good for YSNet and the future of the series? Assuming they receive(d) more through the deal than they would’ve gotten from the lost PC sales, I think so.

Interestingly, while I’m not doubting that the negative PR was damaging to all involved, I’m not sure that the Epic deal will end up having a massive effect on sales. Metro Exodus seems to have sold very well on Epic and, according to Lars, it sold a few hundred thousand copies in its opening weeks on Steam after the exclusivity deal ended.

 

[GhostTrick]

The report said that new releases were in line with expectations. Unless you think DS pumped $5m into the game with a view to breaking even, I’d suggest that the game did better than breaking even.

Lars said that Shenmue wasn’t a AAA mass market game (yes, he did say ‘AAA’). This is simply a statement of fact. Why he felt the need to point this out is anybodies guess.

You seem to be inferring that he said this because the game sold badly. While this is possible, it’s somewhat contradictory to what we’ve heard elsewhere. He himself says that Shenmue 3 did ‘fine’ financially and the report highlights it as the key revenue driver for DS in Q3 (this not only includes let’s sing 2020, but also their entire back catalogue of games). If the game had sold badly, I’d imagine that the report would have said as much (as it did for one of Koch’s new releases).

I imagine he felt the need to say this as a response to the many articles that have branded Shenmue 3 as a failure because it ‘only sold 18,000 copies‘ in its opening week in Japan and the like. To me it was a ‘Hey, this isn’t GTA or Pokémon. It didn’t sell 1m+ copies, but it’s a low budget niche title with limited market appeal and it sold well enough for what it is’.

Nobody is doubting that it was DS who made the deal with Epic, but the point of contention is where the money went. We have somebody telling us that some unknown person told them about the deal. I have my doubts about this as there are probably only a handful of people who know about the deal and I doubt that any of them would be calling up some random French journalist to give him all of the details.

Moreover, he says that the money didn’t go into the production of the game, not that the money won’t be paid through to YSNet as part of their developer royalties from DS. YSNet agreed a deal wherein DS would pay them $X for every copy of the game sold. Deep Silver’s deal with Epic was for a purchase of X copies of the game. Logic dictates that YSNet did (or will, depending on when payments are made) receive their fair share of the money generated from the deal.

Was the deal good for Shenmue 3? Absolutely not. Was the deal good for YSNet and the future of the series? Assuming they receive(d) more through the deal than they would’ve gotten from the lost PC sales, I think so.

Interestingly, while I’m not doubting that the negative PR was damaging to all involved, I’m not sure that the Epic deal will end up having a massive effect on sales. Metro Exodus seems to have sold very well on Epic and, according to Lars, it sold a few hundred thousand copies in its opening weeks on Steam after the exclusivity deal ended.

Deep Silver is a small publisher. Not a mass market product in their mouth has a different meaning. Especially when they've been "happy with sales performance" of games selling around 200k.

Otherwise, they'd say that about all of their releases.
And the wording is important "I'm glad fans liked it BUT it's clearly not a mass market product". Especially when DS is used to smaller IPs.

As for Romain, he said both YsNet didnt receive the money and that money hasnt been used for the game. I linked both posts.

And you said it yourself: "When the game released on Steam, it sold very well". Which means people were actually holding off to buy it. Which means it had an impact on the sales to keep it exclusive.

 

[WuyingRen]

Deep Silver is a small publisher. Not a mass market product in their mouth has a different meaning. Especially when they've been "happy with sales performance" of games selling around 200k.

Otherwise, they'd say that about all of their releases.
And the wording is important "I'm glad fans liked it BUT it's clearly not a mass market product". Especially when DS is used to smaller IPs.

As for Romain, he said both YsNet didnt receive the money and that money hasnt been used for the game. I linked both posts.

And you said it yourself: "When the game released on Steam, it sold very well". Which means people were actually holding off to buy it. Which means it had an impact on the sales to keep it exclusive.

Earlier in the presentation he said the exact same thing but included ‘AAA’ in his response. I’ve no doubt he would say the same if any of the other niche titles in their back catalogue, especially if people were criticizing the game for ‘only selling 18,000 copies’ in Japan and ‘not breaking into the UK top 10’ when the launch window fell around the same time as some absolutely huge AAA titles. If the game had sold badly, why would he say that it did ‘fine’ instead of just saying that it had done badly? If the game had met expectations (as their report suggests) and only broken even, why would DS have invested $5m if they only expected to break even?

If a Romain is so sure of his information, why did he limit it to a few posts on Resetera and not post an article on his site? It sounds like it was an exclusive as nobody else seemed to have this information. Also, if YS (I imagine he is the only person who could’ve told him) trusted Romain enough to share this, why did we see other journalists like Esra being given exclusives about the game? Romain is a self confessed fan of the series and a backer of the Kickstarter to boot. I can think of reasons why he might want to try and protect YSNet and the integrity of the game (especially in light of some of the comments directed towards YS in the immediate aftermath) and I can think of no reason why someone would break an NDA and face legal action to tell him.

As for Metro Exodus selling well on Steam, this goes to show that any fans who were put off by the Epic deal will probably wait and still but Shenmue 3. If they end up buying it (albeit at a later date) then there is no real impact on sales in the grand scheme of things.

 

[spud1897]

Correct me if I'm wrong. The games 100% coming to Steam but there's doubt over if the backers will get Steam keys? That's what I remember.

Steam will definitely add sales. I dont think it will be substantial as the primary market for Shenmue is likely console but any sale is a good sale

 

[GhostTrick]

Earlier in the presentation he said the exact same thing but included ‘AAA’ in his response. I’ve no doubt he would say the same if any of the other niche titles in their back catalogue, especially if people were criticizing the game for ‘only selling 18,000 copies’ in Japan and ‘not breaking into the UK top 10’ when the launch window fell around the same time as some absolutely huge AAA titles. If the game had sold badly, why would he say that it did ‘fine’ instead of just saying that it had done badly? If the game had met expectations (as their report suggests) and only broken even, why would DS have invested $5m if they only expected to break even?

If a Romain is so sure of his information, why did he limit it to a few posts on Resetera and not post an article on his site? It sounds like it was an exclusive as nobody else seemed to have this information. Also, if YS (I imagine he is the only person who could’ve told him) trusted Romain enough to share this, why did we see other journalists like Esra being given exclusives about the game? Romain is a self confessed fan of the series and a backer of the Kickstarter to boot. I can think of reasons why he might want to try and protect YSNet and the integrity of the game (especially in light of some of the comments directed towards YS in the immediate aftermath) and I can think of no reason why someone would break an NDA and face legal action to tell him.

As for Metro Exodus selling well on Steam, this goes to show that any fans who were put off by the Epic deal will probably wait and still but Shenmue 3. If they end up buying it (albeit at a later date) then there is no real impact on sales in the grand scheme of things.

Except Shenmue 3 isn't getting the good word of mouth Metro did. Far from it.

Also, Lars didn't say "the game sold fine" but "it did well financially" which means in term of money invested, the game didnt make them lose money (which is understandable when you take an exclusivity deal to recoup the cost). But at no moment, they say "the game performed fine" "it sold fine". Then again, the game quickly disappeared from the charts and even barely charted the first week.

 

[GhostTrick]

Correct me if I'm wrong. The games 100% coming to Steam but there's doubt over if the backers will get Steam keys? That's what I remember.

Steam will definitely add sales. I dont think it will be substantial as the primary market for Shenmue is likely console but any sale is a good sale

What I'm questionning is the viability of subsequent releases or even long term sales. As I said, the game failed to generate a positive word of mouth overall.

 

[WuyingRen]

Except Shenmue 3 isn't getting the good word of mouth Metro did. Far from it.

Also, Lars didn't say "the game sold fine" but "it did well financially" which means in term of money invested, the game didnt make them lose money (which is understandable when you take an exclusivity deal to recoup the cost). But at no moment, they say "the game performed fine" "it sold fine". Then again, the game quickly disappeared from the charts and even barely charted the first week.

The lack of positive press would have likely impacted Steam sales regardless of when it hit the Steam Store. There were no reviews out when the game launched (neither positive nor negative word of mouth) and it still had a pretty underwhelming launch.

I’m not sure if English is your first language or not, but ‘well’ is the adverb form of ‘good’. Again, you’re reading into his words quite a bit here. He didn’t say ‘the game didn’t lose us money’ and whilst this might be your interpretation, it doesn’t line up with the report saying that the game was ‘in line with expectations’.

It’s comments and attitudes like yours that probably lead to him making those remarks about Shenmue not being a AAA mass market product. ‘It barely charted’ (number 4 in Japan in a Switch dominated market and in the same month as Pokemon, Death Stranding and many other big releases) seems like an unfair criticism of the third game in a series that was never financially successful, especially given that the series has been dormant for nearly two decades and the third game is being produced on a shoestring budget when compared with the budgets of the first two games.

 

[spud1897]

From a viability standpoint is is very difficult.

We don't know the figures of sales, money made and what the investment was from other sources than the Kickstarter, though we can hazard a guess I suspect.

So externally, erring on the side of caution, it would be sensible to question whether a 4th game, in any guise would be a viable option.

But it depends on how the overall project is approached. Let's assume the marketing and PR would be fine for Shenmue 4 just for arguments sake. I suspect you've got a core base of fans, going off of the assumed sale numbers of the re-releases of 250k-400k sales. Not a massive market but one that can certainly make money. For example say $30 is the split is going between publisher and developer that's $12m in revenue based on 400k buying. So you can see the numbers are tight and certainly would make a project questionable.

What I felt Deep Silver did do quite well was on the collectors editions, now of course they cost more to produce etc but they would likely bring in slightly more revenue than a standard edition. So why not, in order to drop costs, go digital with only some physical editions. Maybe a larger run of an LRG version for example? Merch, Shenmue fans lap it up! Why not create more of that.

Of course they have to balance the risks involved along with any potential profit and as much as it hurt in PR I could see Epic being approached again. Whether they would go for it is another matter of course. Let alone the dev costs should be lower as some assets can be re-used etc.

What Yu Suzuki can do is come into a publisher and say I made a game on a tight budget and it turned profit, by hook or crook. Of course people who would potentially invest would investigate thoroughly but personally I feel his hand has been strengthened.

This is all the things they will balance, among other bits and pieces as well.

If marketed in the correct manner and helping people understand why Shenmue is different, in a good way, to modern gaming they might just stand a chance. They then need to rely on the 4th game knocking it out of the park in terms of story and content, again something which we cannot control.

 

[Kyo_JP]

Also guesing since I am not CEO of anything, but if I were asked about the performance of a game that has made OK but some shareholders thought it could drive sales as an AAA when it is clearley not an AAA mass market product I would also have made that observation. If I were in an hypothetical EA shareholder meeting and somebody ask about Unravel I would probably answered the same way, it is not going to sell like FIFA, it is not playing in the same league, let your shareholders know that

 

[Tosh]

Shenmue 1 & 2 doesnt even have 1000 reviews on Steam, one and a half year after the release,
on a platform where everyone can write reviews.
Even the completely broken PC version of the japanese indie game Deadly Premonition has more reviews.
The group of buyers of the re release are clearly fans and people who have interest in "retro games".
It has absolutely nothing to do with the main market on PC.

Why do we think that Shenmue 3 would have been a absolute blockbuster seller on Steam?
How many copies of the re release did they sell in this time frame? 50.000 - 100.000?
And all of a sudden a Steam exclusive Shenmue 3 would have sold way more?

Yes, the EGS exclusive gained negative comments from people but that doesnt mean
that all of these people were interested in Shenmue 3.
It just means that people who are interested in gaming (or love to raise their torches)
werent happy about this publisher decision, thats it.
I mean there are still people who never played Shenmue 3 and they are making fun of it
because "it had a gigantic 7 mil dollar budget and looks so bad".
The big complaining, the memes and discussions on Youtube and Twitch etc have nothing to do with the discussions
of people who actually bought and played the game.

So there is no proof that no negative comments automatically means = more sales or interest.
It only means that all of these rage hate videos and board threads wouldnt exist,
that doesnt mean that the same people were interested in buying the game.

 

[GhostTrick]

The lack of positive press would have likely impacted Steam sales regardless of when it hit the Steam Store. There were no reviews out when the game launched (neither positive nor negative word of mouth) and it still had a pretty underwhelming launch.

I’m not sure if English is your first language or not, but ‘well’ is the adverb form of ‘good’. Again, you’re reading into his words quite a bit here. He didn’t say ‘the game didn’t lose us money’ and whilst this might be your interpretation, it doesn’t line up with the report saying that the game was ‘in line with expectations’.

It’s comments and attitudes like yours that probably lead to him making those remarks about Shenmue not being a AAA mass market product. ‘It barely charted’ (number 4 in Japan in a Switch dominated market and in the same month as Pokemon, Death Stranding and many other big releases) seems like an unfair criticism of the third game in a series that was never financially successful, especially given that the series has been dormant for nearly two decades and the third game is being produced on a shoestring budget when compared with the budgets of the first two games.

My mistake. They didn't say "It did well financially" but "fine". Which is different.

And then again, I'll recall you sth important : Deep Silver ISNT a AAA publisher. Their biggest release is Metro which is more akin to a high end AA game rather than a AAA game.
For them to say a product is clearly not a mass market product means something entirely different. Then again, the context matter. "i'm glad the fans liked it BUT it's not a mass market product" "it still did fine financially". That's a nice way to say "it didn't sell well but we recouped costs".

Deep Silver is a publisher used to call a game selling over 200k "selling well" or "having a great performance".

And yes, the game barely charted everywhere else. Even in Japan, it landed 4 but at how much sales ? And how long did it stay ?

Also guesing since I am not CEO of anything, but if I were asked about the performance of a game that has made OK but some shareholders thought it could drive sales as an AAA when it is clearley not an AAA mass market product I would also have made that observation. If I were in an hypothetical EA shareholder meeting and somebody ask about Unravel I would probably answered the same way, it is not going to sell like FIFA, it is not playing in the same league, let your shareholders know that

As you said in your exemple: EA.

Niche and AAA all have a different meaning depending of the publisher.

Shenmue 1 & 2 doesnt even have 1000 reviews on Steam, one and a half year after the release,
on a platform where everyone can write reviews.
Even the completely broken PC version of the japanese indie game Deadly Premonition has more reviews.
The group of buyers of the re release are clearly fans and people who have interest in "retro games".
It has absolutely nothing to do with the main market on PC.

Why do we think that Shenmue 3 would have been a absolute blockbuster seller on Steam?
How many copies of the re release did they sell in this time frame? 50.000 - 100.000?
And all of a sudden a Steam exclusive Shenmue 3 would have sold way more?

Yes, the EGS exclusive gained negative comments from people but that doesnt mean
that all of these people were interested in Shenmue 3.
It just means that people who are interested in gaming (or love to raise their torches)
werent happy about this publisher decision, thats it.
I mean there are still people who never played Shenmue 3 and they are making fun of it
because "it had a gigantic 7 mil dollar budget and looks so bad".
The big complaining, the memes and discussions on Youtube and Twitch etc have nothing to do with the discussions
of people who actually bought and played the game.

So there is no proof that no negative comments automatically means = more sales or interest.
It only means that all of these rage hate videos and board threads wouldnt exist,
that doesnt mean that the same people were interested in buying the game.

Going by that logic, there's no proof either that positive word of mouth = sales. There's no proof either that E3 exposure means sales.

There's one thing that I agree with: Yes, releasing on Steam doesn't automatically mean good sales.
But there's one thing I can tell you for sure: Cutting yourself on purpose of one of the biggest market is a nice way to shoot yourself in the foot.

I agree with what a lot of you people are saying: Shenmue is an IP with a small market. Shenmue 3 is a AA game. But the point was to, maybe, widen their audience. It doesn't mean they could've done that for sure. But the problem with Shenmue 3 is that everything was done to make sure the audience remains limited.

 

[Down by Law]

The good thing with Shenmue 3 is there's still money to be made - we've had a couple of Deep Silver games come to PS+ (Metro Remastered, Mighty #9 and Saints Row come to mind) and Sony pay again for those - Shenmue III's a dead cert for plus at some point I'm sure of it. Then you got the steam release still to come. There's still revenue streams at play, in fact Shenmue III saw it's first major price cut on the UK PSN due to the big in Japan promotion. I think Shenmue III is pretty much done at retail (physical) but there's still money being made on digital sales.

The name still carries some weight which is why we saw those headlines from last week. Either way, it's much more likely we'll be getting Shenmue IV before we get another Terminator game from them at any rate

 

[WuyingRen]

I could see Epic being approached again. Whether they would go for it is another matter of course.

Whilst not impossible, I think it’s incredibly unlikely that S4 will be an Epic exclusive.

Epic’s main motivation for making the deal for S3 was to take users away from Steam. Any Shenmue fans open to using the EGS have already downloaded it and created accounts. Any that chose to stick it out and wait for the Steam release would likely do the same thing with S4 were it an exclusive and so there’s very little to gain from their point of view.

Also, if YSNet got screwed out of their share of the money from the Epic deal (I still don’t think this was the case), you can be damn sure they wouldn’t let it happen a second time. Even if they got their share of the money, the backlash they faced last time (person insults, death wishes, etc) would probably put them off going down the same route a second time.

My mistake. They didn't say "It did well financially" but "fine". Which is different.

And then again, I'll recall you sth important : Deep Silver ISNT a AAA publisher. Their biggest release is Metro which is more akin to a high end AA game rather than a AAA game.
For them to say a product is clearly not a mass market product means something entirely different. Then again, the context matter. "i'm glad the fans liked it BUT it's not a mass market product" "it still did fine financially". That's a nice way to say "it didn't sell well but we recouped costs".

Deep Silver is a publisher used to call a game selling over 200k "selling well" or "having a great performance".

And yes, the game barely charted everywhere else. Even in Japan, it landed 4 but at how much sales ? And how long did it stay ?

Fair enough. I thought I recalled them using the word ‘fine’, but took your quote as being accurate. Ultimately it doesn’t really matter.

I don’t want to be that dictionary guy, but...

Saying that something did ‘fine’ is the same as saying that it did well and isn’t a nice way of saying that something did badly (they’re two very different sentiments). Saying that something ‘failed to live up to our expectations’ or ‘didn’t do quite as well as we’d hoped it would’ would be a nice way of saying that the game had flopped and that’s not at all what they said (indeed, the report says that it met expectations).

If DS are not a AAA publisher, you should perhaps let them know that. According to their presentation and report, they have 2 or 3 AAA games in the pipeline. Metro Exodus is a 1m+ game. Shenmue is not a AAA mainstream product and can’t be expected to come close to those numbers.

You continue to prove my point. 18,000 sales in a Switch dominated market is a good result considering the release window. Not making the top 5 in France and Germany is unsurprising given other releases at the time and not breaking into the November (a month which S3 wasn’t on sale for most of) NPD chart during the same month as Black Friday is, once again, not surprising. It is not a AAA game and can’t have been expected to compete with COD, Star Wars, FIFA, Pokemon, Death Stranding, etc.

Some people have unrealistic expectations when it comes to sales of Shenmue 3 and that’s what I think Lars was getting at. 70,000 people already paid for their copy of their game before launch and for a niche game that was probably only going to reach about 500,000 lifetime sales at best, that and the game’s modest budget and tricky release window is obviously going to have a big impact on its first quarter sales (and yes, S3 also missed half of the quarter because of when it released).

 

[scooterusa]

Jesus guys. How did we go from Good news to absolutely negativity? Relax...

 

[Tosh]

Going by that logic, there's no proof either that positive word of mouth = sales. There's no proof either that E3 exposure means sales.

And thats 100% true. Check out the indie hall / booths at Gamescom or TGS for example.
There are dozens of booths with preview demos, you can talk to the devs,
there are hundreds of thousands international visitors .... and? A lot of times, or probably most of the time,
all these people never hear about these games again. Not because the games are cancelled, people just forget about it.
It can affect some of them, people who have interest in this genre
or people who are surprised by the quality. But the big main core of the people just says "ok, cool" and thats it,
especially in the indie / AA market.
And of course a big main stage show with a live stream watched by millions of people will affect more people.
But thats still not a 100% purchase. Its more like a ingame power up that lasts a specific amount of time and then its gone.
Thats something the other indie booths dont have.

These projects can still gain a positive status / effect if the final game is simply a very very good and unique game
because people will find out about it. But that doesnt work with Shenmue 3, its a game for old fans.
Its specifically targeted at fans of a already niche game.
This will never "explode" like a Stardew Valley. Shenmue is a game for a very very specific group of people.
Thats just how it is.
So i doubt that a exclusive Steam version would have gained way more sales. The game on EGS is the same game on Steam.
It wasnt like the Re Release sold 500.000+ on Steam.
If you look into the S3 Steam board, there are 18 pages of threads and 95% of them
are complaint and rage threads of anonymous people and we have no idea if they were really interested in the game
or if its just complaining because they can.

 

[murdiaries]

Bros hear @scooterusa .
CEO said sales went fine and generated revenue, what's the point of discussing about this any further, unless you have ulterior motives to shit on SM3?

Get out, grab a beer, have sex, whatever is better than this pointless hate. :)