I think the Shenmue FREE gameplay design is still innovative because nothing else has copied it yet. Sure, there are open-world games with weather effects, but few where the NPCs react to it, and none where the NPCs simulate consistent daily lives on the scale of Shenmue, and none that combine a hand-to-hand fighting engine with adventure with RPG elements. That being said, gaming media didn't really get Shenmue in 1999, and it won't in 2019 either. Anything outside of the genre molds will confuse journalists who are rarely enthusiasts, rarely have historical perspective, and who are trained to make cookie-cutter comparisons. Maybe indie gaming news will have something important to say about Shenmue 3, and within that group there will be some influence, but indie gamers probably won't have the hardware to run the game, so that will limit its influence even more.
In my opinion, if the music is as incredible and memorable as the first games, and the story really surprises us, these factors could make Shenmue 3 a big moment in gaming history. It won't get the 'star' treatment this time from Sega. It's not featured on a hyped new console. So, it won't be as magical for the same reasons as it was 20 years ago, but I think a larger number of gamers are more sophisticated today, and if the story impresses, word of mouth could result in Shenmue 3 being as cult as the originals. I'll have to wait and see. We also don't know what newer, younger team members are contributing to this project. Shenmue 3 could have an entirely different feel than what we are used to and expect.