I doubt that she expected Ryo to beat Lan Di; but that she thought that he would serve as a big enough distraction to keep Lan Di busy until it was too late seems plausible to me (I mean, that’s very nearly what happened).
Her plan very nearly succeeded (technically we still don’t know for sure that it didn’t - although I think it’s a very safe bet that Lan Di didn’t perish in the fire). Had Ryo not been there to keep Lan Di busy it would have been certain to fail because the second he saw smoke or flames, Lan Di would have left and then gone straight after Niao-Sun.
That she could very easily have asked Mr. Muscles to take the mirror from Ryo suggests that getting Ryo to the castle was very much a part of her plan. You could certainly argue that it’s convenient to the plot, but even knowing nothing about her character it would make sense for her to do everything in her power to increase the chances of her plan working - and Ryo being at the castle certainly serves that purpose.
This is possible but I interpreted it as her seizing the moment rather than planning it from the beginning. Perhaps she thought Ryo would hide the mirror from her so the only way to get it was to bait him into giving it willingly.
I do like the idea that Tentei could have told both Lan Di and Niao-Sun about the existence of only one of the mirrors and tasked each of them with retrieving it in exchange for control of the CYM when he steps aside. Perhaps we will find out in a future entry to the series.
A cool idea. I just wish Shenmue had more of this in its story. the way it's presented there is no reason to think this if there is a reason to think there is a Tian Di (Tentei) at all.
This is why it's very important to know who knows what when (and why I suspect Shenmue plays this very close to the chest). The story only really makes sense if the CYM know that there are two mirrors but think Iwao only had one, and think that Yuanda Zhu and then the stone-cutters in Guilin can point them in the direction of the other. This means that Niao Sun can't know that Ryo has the mirror in Guilin because why not just raid the village with the CYM and take it from him? Why stop at abducting the stone cutters? She learns that he has it in Niaowu and works to obtain it without Lan Di finding out about it. But it also means that Niao Sun has to know about the Dragon Mirror, so if she doesn't think Lan Di has it, where does she think that is? That also goes against her character being this all-knowing spymaster
Her and Lan Di defintiely don't know the whereabouts of the Phoenix Mirror at the beginning of S3. That's why Yanlang and co are sent to Bailu, they're exhausting their options trying to figure out where it is.
Interestingly this means that Yuanda Zhu lied/protected Iwao when interrogated by the CYM in S2. He knew Iwao took both mirrors to Japan but (presumably) told the CYM he didn't know forcing them to go to Bailu to dig around for leads.
Lan Di didn't necessarily think there was only one mirror, only that Iwao had possession of one. Considering the number of random-ass characters who know about both mirrors, and that Lan Di was headed for Guilin where stone cutters were being abducted for information about the mirrors, like I said, it only really makes sense if they know that both exist, just not where they are.
Could be a translation error but the
bad ending of S1 indicates Lan Di doesn't know. Though TBH it doesn't make sense that he doesn't.
Niaowu is basically presented as Niao Sun's base of operations. I am certain many of them know at least vaguely who she is. She's still too conspicuous as Niao Sun, either way. There's no way she's able to act the same way as Li Feng, but without the disguise, and appear approachable to Ryo or Shenhua.
I don't know where in the games it is implied that Niaowu is her base of operations. I think that is being inferred from extra sources as we know (outside of the game) that she is supposedly the ruler of the southern branch of the CYM. This was likely the original intention of the story however, the game itself doesn't present this at all and we don't even know if the CYM has 4 leaders or is structured that way at all.
Lan Di is also in Niaowu, and he is sitting atop the castle. The game almost implies that Niao Sun is a subordinate of Lan Di's so we could just as well infer (likely even more so) that Niaowu is his base of operations. Especially since Suzhou, what would have been Lan Di's base, has been cut and I suspect (from our other conversations in other threads) that the ending of S3 was repurposed from the Suzhou chapter.
We pretty well can based on a number of different factors, but I'm almost positive Lan Di is never said to be the leader of the CYM; Only a leader of the CYM. If he was, it was probably a translation error
It's a translation error. In
English S1 Master Chen says he is the leader of the CYM, but in Japanese he says one of the leaders.
The disguise I thought was just to goad information out of Shenhua, although even that is a stretch since they dont know who she is. I guess her usual attire is a bit too ostentatious and conspicuous, dressing plainly would make her appear more trustworthy.
Specifically this, it's understandable and a half.
1. CYM is located all across China, including Hong Kong.
2. They are the biggest of underworld gangs in China and Lan Di is the leader in HK (well, Eastern Branch).
3. Ren is involved in underworld gangs/crime and operates out of HK/Kowloon.
4. Niao Sun is the leader of the Southern Branch.
5. From what we know, Niao Sun does no go to HK
From those facts (and one hypothesis), it's pretty cut and dry how Ren would know about one and not the other.
You bring up something interesting I thought of before which is, are the CYM actually in Hong Kong? It seems that they operate there via a proxy with the Yellow Head. Aside from the fact that we don't have any in game information indicating Niao Sun runs the southern branch, if there were a southern branch why wouldn't it be HK? It makes the most sense geographically and HK is an international hub not Guilin a rural inland tourist destination.
My head canon has been that since Shenmue takes place in the 80's HK was not a part of China and therefore the CYM did not see it as a part of their domain, perhaps because they are a nationalistic organization or some other part of their ideals.