Shenmue 3 Sales

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Sput

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I can't see how a high percentage completion rate could ever be a bad thing. Sure, maybe it'd be lower if more newcomers had bought the game, but we know S3 didn't find a big new audience thanks to the DS briefing (and the likelihood of that ever happening was always kinda small, in my opinion).

So what we're left with is a game for a specific audience, and more of that audience finished the game than is typical. I'm sure some fans gave up but I don't think that's meaningfully represented in the percentage. I wouldn't expect the percentage to be any higher, is what I'm saying.
 
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I can't see how a high percentage completion rate could ever be a bad thing. Sure, maybe it'd be lower if more newcomers had bought the game, but we know S3 didn't find a big new audience thanks to the DS briefing (and the likelihood of that ever happening was always kinda small, in my opinion).

So what we're left with is a game for a specific audience, and more of that audience finished the game than is typical. I'm sure some fans gave up but I don't think that's meaningfully represented in the percentage. I wouldn't expect the percentage to be any higher, is what I'm saying.
A high completion rate either indicates a fantastic game, a game that’s incredibly easy to complete or a game that was purchased predominantly by hardcore fans.

The mixed reception would suggest that Shenmue 3 is not the first, the long grinding sections show us that it’s clearly not the second and so, were Shenmue 3 to have a high clear percentage, it would leave us with the likelihood that the game didn’t sell well outside of the fan base.

Thankfully, 32.5% completion seems pretty average for an offline game (if anything, it’s pretty low compared to Uncharted 4 and the last of us), so we can infer that either there were a decent number of sales outside of the existing fandom or that some fans didn’t finish the game.
 
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I know what you're saying, but I just don't think it's high or low enough to tell us anything meaningful to be honest. It's just another scrap of data to extrapolate on, and much like all the sales "data" we have, there's just too much guesswork and wiggle room to predict anything with accuracy.
 
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I know what you're saying, but I just don't think it's high or low enough to tell us anything meaningful to be honest. It's just another scrap of data to extrapolate on, and much like all the sales "data" we have, there's just too much guesswork and wiggle room to predict anything with accuracy.
I’m not suggesting that it is significant, merely pointing out that were the number to be higher, it could be seen as a negative.

It’s useful data though all the same.
 

bcdcdude

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I can see where you're coming from, but if I was an analyst, the fact that a hefty chunk of people are completing the is compelling proof that there is a market for a game like Shenmue. I think we all know that Shenmue has a passionate small(ish) fanbase, but the benefit of that passionate fanbase is more or less guaranteed sales.

The question I would be asking is what the budget for the next game would be. If you're guaranteed a chunk of sales (that number which I admit I couldn't give right now) and work out the costs, profit margins etc, it makes the thought of approving Shenmue IV more likely.

I think we'll have a much better idea when Shenmue III eventually comes out on Steam. The smart money would be to release the game with all DLC included (especially as 2/3 felt like stuff taken out of the main game) to maximise sales.
 
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I can see where you're coming from, but if I was an analyst, the fact that a hefty chunk of people are completing the is compelling proof that there is a market for a game like Shenmue. I think we all know that Shenmue has a passionate small(ish) fanbase, but the benefit of that passionate fanbase is more or less guaranteed sales.

The question I would be asking is what the budget for the next game would be. If you're guaranteed a chunk of sales (that number which I admit I couldn't give right now) and work out the costs, profit margins etc, it makes the thought of approving Shenmue IV more likely.

I think we'll have a much better idea when Shenmue III eventually comes out on Steam. The smart money would be to release the game with all DLC included (especially as 2/3 felt like stuff taken out of the main game) to maximise sales.
I understand where you’re coming from too, but I disagree that 32.5% of players completing the main story constitutes a ‘hefty chunk’.

If we look at the games the OP compared it to, half of his figures are wrong and the way they are presented (Nier in particular) is a little misleading.
GTA V, only 23% completed the last mission.
The witcher 3, only 26% finished the story
Nier Automata, 5%
Metal Gear Solid V, 19%
Valkyrica Chronicles 4 22%
GTA V was a rerelease of a PS3 game and many of the people who picked it up had already completed it on a previous gen console. It also has a lot of online elements and so it’s likely there are some people who only play the game online which would lower the completion percentage. The PS3 version had 29.2% story completion.

The base version of Witcher 3 has a story completion rate of 29.6% and the GOTY edition has a completion rate of 29.7%. It’s possible that people switched over to the GOTY edition half way through their play through to get the DLC for a lower price. The main story also takes twice as long to complete than Shenmue 3’s (according to how long to beat).

Nier Automatica has multiple endings. The completion rate for the most common ending (ending A) was 52.4%. The total figure for people who achieved any of the game’s endings was probably higher.

The MGSV figures were actually much lower than OP reported on both PS3 and PS4, but let’s be honest, this game was a joke. Half way through the game you literally have to replay all of the missions from the first half of the game and so it’s no surprise that nobody bothered to complete it.

The figure for Valkyria Chronicles on PS4 was 36.3%, not 22%.

Let’s put them together and throw in Uncharted 4 and The Last of Us (some of the best selling story driven games on PS4).

Nier Automatica: 52.4%
Uncharted 4: 40.9%
TLOU: 38.3%
Valkyria Chronicles: 36.3%
Shenmue 3: 32.5%
The Witcher 3: 29.7%
GTAV: 29.5%

Shenmue 3’s clear percentage is distinctly average and I think this is a good thing. If you look at the game’s average completion rate (24%) on PSN Profiles, it’s actually a little lower than the average completion rate (27.25%) for the 50 most popular PS4 games, but this is fairly negligible.

Without sales figures, the clear rate does little to tell us how successful the game was.
 

bcdcdude

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Yeah, I get you. It's not an exact science. It's a tough one, but I thought i'd bring it up as a sort of glimmer of hope in these uncertain times. But until we get official figures, it's hard to compare. We couldn't even break it down so easily as i'm sure many of us have bought multiple copies of the game (guilty as charged - although 2 copies were for friends and family!)

I'm sure through social media channels and the like that Deep Silver etc know that many of us are buying multiple copies brand new as a show of support too. I wonder how normal this is for franchise games? I know a mate who used to collect multiple copies of Metal Gear Solid games, but mostly after the fact and not full price at launch. Are there other niche series' where fans to similar to what we do?

There's also a good possibility of people owning a copy and not yet playing it. It would be interesting to see how many new people might play the game over the coming months with the coronavirus lockdown.
 
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Yeah, I get you. It's not an exact science. It's a tough one, but I thought i'd bring it up as a sort of glimmer of hope in these uncertain times. But until we get official figures, it's hard to compare. We couldn't even break it down so easily as i'm sure many of us have bought multiple copies of the game (guilty as charged - although 2 copies were for friends and family!)

I'm sure through social media channels and the like that Deep Silver etc know that many of us are buying multiple copies brand new as a show of support too. I wonder how normal this is for franchise games? I know a mate who used to collect multiple copies of Metal Gear Solid games, but mostly after the fact and not full price at launch. Are there other niche series' where fans to similar to what we do?

There's also a good possibility of people owning a copy and not yet playing it. It would be interesting to see how many new people might play the game over the coming months with the coronavirus lockdown.
Yeah, it’s difficult to predict sales of any game, let alone one with a Kickstarter, several special editions and fans buying multiple copies. That said, I’m quietly confident that I’ve poured over enough data for my prediction of between 197,926 and 210,373 PS4 worldwide physical and digital sales to be there or thereabouts.

Whilst these kind of numbers wouldn’t be terrible, I do worry that it’s nowhere near enough for the game to have recouped its $12m budget (not without the Epic deal at least) and I’m nowhere near as optimistic about PC sales.
 

24Nathan

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Personally, I don’t know any bakers.

Max physical PS4 sales in Japan: 39,829.
Max physical PS4 sales in Japan inc KS: 44,291.
Estimate for max worldwide physical PS4 copies in circulation (including KS): 201,323.

Estimate for total number of backer copies (including PC): 77,231.
Estimate for total number of PS4 backer copies: 54,062 (assuming a 70/30 split in favor of PS4).

Estimate for max worldwide physical PS4 sales: 147,261.
Estimate for max total worldwide PS4 sales (physical and digital): 210,373 (assuming a 70/30 split in favor of physical sales).

Growth projections:
74% -> 42,374 physical PS4 copies in Japan (inc KS) -> 192,610 physical PS4 copies worldwide (inc KS) -> 138,548 physical PS4 copies worldwide (exc KS) -> 197,926 physical and digital PS4 worldwide sales.

94% -> 47,245 physical PS4 copies in Japan (inc KS) -> 214,749 physical PS4 copies worldwide (inc KS) -> 160,687 physical PS4 copies worldwide (exc KS) -> 229,553 physical and digital PS4 worldwide sales.

Combining the two datasets gives an estimate of somewhere between 197,926 and 210,373 PS4 physical and digital sales worldwide. This doesn’t account for Special/Limited editions (15,000+), people who purchased multiple copies or people whose consoles are not connected to the internet. The estimate does however work under the assumption that 22% of players are based in Japan (as per Gamestat’s tracking data) as well as the two other assumptions mentioned in the calculations. This number does seem to be roughly in keeping with the sales data we have for the HD rerelease of Shenmue 1 and 2.
Except that Gamstat is still kind of a joke to try and calculate sales off of, and any concrete sales data for Shenmue I & II is about as solid as most of the "data" in this thread, to my knowledge. Source?
 
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One thing I found out is that the guy who runs Gamstat doesn’t believe his Asia numbers are correct. He says he thinks they’re low.
 
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Except that Gamstat is still kind of a joke to try and calculate sales off of, and any concrete sales data for Shenmue I & II is about as solid as most of the "data" in this thread, to my knowledge. Source?
Sales data for Shenmue 1 and 2 on Gamestat is pretty much 100% accurate up to December 2018 thanks to whoever at Sony came up with the great idea for my PSN life (it told you your rarest trophy and how many other people had it which in turn allowed you to calculate the total number of players for that game).

If you think Gamestat is a joke, you clearly don’t understand how it works.

I was actually looking at week 1 sales to draw my comparison though, in which 25% of sales were in Japan (37,529 Japanese sales / 145,500 total worldwide sales). Again, you can argue that Media Create and VGChartz are not accurate, but their methodology when it comes to compiling their charts is no different than the methodology used for the NPD chart or the UKIE chart. The only chart that I’m aware of that could be considered more accurate would be the EMEA chart as that draws on data provided directly by publishers, but as this doesn’t provide actual numbers, it’s not particularly helpful (other than telling us that Shenmue was the fifth best selling game in Europe during its opening week).
 
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I think that the trophy for completing the game is now 'common' which is pretty good news. I think I read something that companies do analytics on trophies (can't remember where, but I have definitely read it) so it could be read that people who buy the game play it.

On the other side of the wedge, something like Uncharted 4 which has sold a shit ton; completing the game only gives you about 15% trophies, so maybe it works both ways?
Since the ending was absolutely terrible, I don't see how it is good news many people finished it. It ruined it for me and many others.
 

spud1897

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Since the ending was absolutely terrible, I don't see how it is good news many people finished it. It ruined it for me and many others.
Less than you think judging by the tweetathon. I've said this a million times. We're but a very small selection of Shenmue fans online.

You look at the 500k it's the same people repeat posting.
 

24Nathan

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Sales data for Shenmue 1 and 2 on Gamestat is pretty much 100% accurate up to December 2018 thanks to whoever at Sony came up with the great idea for my PSN life (it told you your rarest trophy and how many other people had it which in turn allowed you to calculate the total number of players for that game).

If you think Gamestat is a joke, you clearly don’t understand how it works.

I was actually looking at week 1 sales to draw my comparison though, in which 25% of sales were in Japan (37,529 Japanese sales / 145,500 total worldwide sales). Again, you can argue that Media Create and VGChartz are not accurate, but their methodology when it comes to compiling their charts is no different than the methodology used for the NPD chart or the UKIE chart. The only chart that I’m aware of that could be considered more accurate would be the EMEA chart as that draws on data provided directly by publishers, but as this doesn’t provide actual numbers, it’s not particularly helpful (other than telling us that Shenmue was the fifth best selling game in Europe during its opening week).
There are so many things wrong with this, but I'll let you handle it:

tomboz said:
Hard to believe we’re still discussing Gamestat, but okay.

If the flaws in their methodology weren’t blatantly obvious from their own explanation, let’s actually look at the data they have.

Here we can see that on December 1st, they had supposedly tracked 38,300 players and here we can see that 22% of the players they’ve tracked are from Japan. We know that there had been 20,000 physical sales in Japan by this time and that there were 4,000 Kickstarter backers. Let’s assume there wasn’t a single digital sale.

22% of 38,300 is 8,426, meaning that despite there being around 24,000 copies of the game in circulation, they had only tracked around 1/3 of the players. This tells us that their figure is out by a ridiculous margin, most likely down to an incredibly poor sample group.

If we account for this margin when looking at their current estimate (60,000) we end up with around 180,000 players which is a lot more realistic.

But wait. There’s more. Due to a programming error, Shenmue 3 is only linked to a player’s profile after they’ve unlocked their first trophy. This is not the case for other games they track as we can see here with Shenmue and Shenmue II.

With both games, only around 80% of tracked players actually unlocked a trophy, so if we assume Shenmue III follows the same trend, it would suggest that around 20% of players haven’t been picked up by Game Stat when they usually would have been.

If we factor in this programming error, 180,000 becomes 225,000. That’s not including special editions, digital sales and duplicate copies.
What changed since February 15th?

Gamstat doesn't account for consoles that are offline, players who haven't earned a trophy, players who haven't played it at all yet, players who own multiple copies (I own probably 10-12 PS4 copies off the top of my head, and I know there are many like me that bought up during and after the Kickstarter), and it also doesn't account for over 92,500,000 other PlayStation consoles. His sample size is 7.5 million.

Taking a quick glance at Shenmue III's page there also gives an estimate of US players that don't even match the KS backers from the US. Same with Canada. I get these are estimates are there are margins of error, but the numbers just don't add up. This is not a good way to track sales.

Not to mention that based on Gamstat, if Shenmue III didn't sell a single copy outside of Kickstarter, there are STILL about 20k who haven't opened their copy to play it, or fall in to one of the many categories that aren't tracked.
 
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There are so many things wrong with this, but I'll let you handle it:
Please, do tell...

What changed since February 15th?

Gamstat doesn't account for consoles that are offline, players who haven't earned a trophy, players who haven't played it at all yet, players who own multiple copies (I own probably 10-12 PS4 copies off the top of my head, and I know there are many like me that bought up during and after the Kickstarter), and it also doesn't account for over 92,500,000 other PlayStation consoles. His sample size is 7.5 million.
Nothing’s changed since February 15th. Gamestat’s methodology means getting an accurate figure for a niche game is practically impossible, which is why I’m not using their estimate of 68,000 anywhere in my calculations.

What I do consider to be fairly useful is that of their captured sample of 5,000 or so active players, 22% are based in Japan, which is in keeping with the sales figures we saw from Shenmue 1/2.

This is not a good way to track sales.
You should tell that to the professional analysts working on behalf of multi-million dollar investment banks who use it as a resource for revenue projections.
 
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