Shenmue IV Will Happen - Here's Why!

tomboz said:
Why would anybody give him a loan to make a fourth game in a series that has lost money with each entry, especially as, by your reasoning, Sega do not trust him enough to provide him with the money up front?
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Because he would have an agreement in place of Sega's purchase of the game. Yu could use this agreement value as collateral to secure the loan.
 
What we do know is that Shenmue III has done financially fine. Now that takes into account the Epic Deal and also the Kickstarter funding. So I would assume that money has been made on the private investments that were made from Deep Silver.

The question is whether a profit has been made when you take into account the $7.1 million from the kickstarter. If it has then there could be a good argument for a 4th game.
 
Sonoshee said:
How about Sega just support the developer who gave them so much over the their history instead of turning their back on him while humping Yakuza?

If they could throw $20 million at a cancelled Shenmue Online then they sure as hell could have thrown that at Shenmue 3 that was actually released and able to turn a profit.
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Sega has a long history of wasting money on bad projects, while at the same time being super stingy on good projects.
 
SMDzero said:
Because he would have an agreement in place of Sega's purchase of the game. Yu could use this agreement value as collateral to secure the loan.
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SMDzero said:
Because he would have an agreement in place of Sega's purchase of the game. Yu could use this agreement value as collateral to secure the loan.
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Seems like a good way for Yu Suzuki to end up bankrupt and penniless. If this is what it takes to get Shenmue IV, then I’ll concede it wasn’t meant to be and hope for a more sensible conclusion.
 
Suzaku said:
Sega has a long history of wasting money on bad projects, while at the same time being super stingy on good projects.
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They seem to be releasing mostly quality titles from proven IPs these days. A big budget Shenmue from Sega isn’t happening because it doesn’t make business sense. Simple as that. No idea what Shenmue 3 sold, but it definitely didn’t make huge waves based on what we do know. I can’t see that enticing Sega.
 
mjqjazzbar said:
They seem to be releasing mostly quality titles from proven IPs these days. A big budget Shenmue from Sega isn’t happening because it doesn’t make business sense. Simple as that. No idea what Shenmue 3 sold, but it definitely didn’t make huge waves based on what we do know. I can’t see that enticing Sega.
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if they followed "business sense" they would never had games like Yakuza in the first place...
 
Sega still have a luandry list of great IPs to redeem so idk if Shenmue is a priority pick. But we can change that que line if we make enuf noise and demands. Then put money where our mouth is ala s1 & 2 HD.

Or...Yu do what he is good at by releasing/working on a more popular Ip to get some slush funds to put into Shenmue. I'd take a VF6 or Outrun 3 for starters.
 
Suzaku said:
if they followed "business sense" they would never had games like Yakuza in the first place...
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The first Yakuza came out a couple years after Shenmue 2. Things have changed quite a bit over 15 years.
 
Nowadays, I see SEGA as a "once bitten twice shy" company. Remember a series like Shenmue was once a big risk for them and it fiscally bombed at a time when SEGA was already losing money. If they hadn't merged with the SAMMY Corporation, who knows where SEGA (or their IP's) would be today.

So it really comes as no surprise to me that SEGA would prioritize titles (like Sonic and Ryu ga Gotoku) that they know will sell. Or the fact that they license out their titles to other publishers. If these titles do well, SEGA will get some of the revenue. If the title fails, then its the licensing publisher who takes the fall. Either way, SEGA loses nothing.

In contemporary times, you have to make it adamantly clear to SEGA that what they offer you will consistently sell. Titles like Sonic, Ryu ga Gotoku, Phantasy Star Online, Hatsune Miku, etc have all demonstrated this in either Japan or elsewhere. Though they do seem to be loosening their grip a bit with the worldwide release of Sakura Wars.

So while I too wish that SEGA would be willing to take risks again, I also don't totally blame them for being overly cautious either.
 
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SMDzero said:
I have a great idea on how Shenmue 4 can be made, this time without resorting to Kickstarter.

Yu should go to Sega and tell them that he will assume the entire financial risk of making Shenmue 4 in exchange for Sega purchasing the game from him for publishing rights as long as the finished game meets the high quality standards set by the first 2 games.

This arrangement is no risk to Sega because if the game's costs exceed the budget it's not Sega's problem, they would not be obligated to purchase the game until it is completed.

Then Yu can borrow the money to fund the game's development by using Sega's agreed upon purchase price as collateral.
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SMDzero said:
Yu can use the money he borrows make the game... he can pay it back with the money Sega gives him for purchasing the game from him once it's completed.
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You really need to take an economics or business course.
 
mjqjazzbar said:
The first Yakuza came out a couple years after Shenmue 2. Things have changed quite a bit over 15 years.
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Yakuza came out in 2005, a year after Sammy bought Sega, things were already different at that time.
Even Nagoshi had their share of troubles to make Sega and later Sony to greenlight Yakuza.

In the end they succeeded and they created a profitable series that is still active after 15 years, sometimes you have to take risks, even Sega know this, they just lack the courage to do this more often.
 
Is there a chance it won't happen? Especially now with the economy going down the toilet?

To play devils advocate (since I REALLY want Shenmue IV to happen) but is there a chance it doesn't? Investors weren't exactly chomping at the bit to invest in III until we put our money where our mouth is. Would they be willing to invest in IV in this current shit hole of a financial climate?

I'm very keen to see how all of this effects the industry at the moment. Will we see the rise of smaller budgeted projects? (the re-rise of the AA market) or will we see people pulling the strings even tighter on the purse?
 
Suzaku said:
Yakuza came out in 2005, a year after Sammy bought Sega, things were already different at that time.
Even Nagoshi had their share of troubles to make Sega and later Sony to greenlight Yakuza.

In the end they succeeded and they created a profitable series that is still active after 15 years, sometimes you have to take risks, even Sega know this, they just lack the courage to do this more often.
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i don’t see why or how the fourth game in this series would suddenly print money
 
Down by Law said:
The main reason we got 1&2 HD was Sega Europe pushing for it with a UK dev team doing the port work. If you had to wait for Sega of Japan or America, you would still be waiting.
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Good point! Gave me an idea for a thought: wonder if Sega Europe--which has been somewhat autonomous historically--would be able to chip in a bit with Shibuya for Shen4?
 
Sh3ppy said:
I don't think that's necessary to see that the idea is pure fantasy and a non-starter. Or maybe it is.
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It's like this... Sega doesn't want to risk spending any money developing another Shenmue sequel that they think may run over budget not turn out well and ultimately lose money.

So Yu Suzuki takes the risk to finance the development of the game himself in exchange for Sega's agreement to purchase the completed game from him (for let's say 25 million dollars) as long as the final delivered game meets the quality standards set by 1 and 2.

This is a good deal for Sega.. they are presented with an opportunity to be hand-delivered another masterpiece Shenmue game on par with 1& 2 on a silver platter and only have to pay 25 million to buy it so they agree in writing to the purchase if Yu can deliver the game to them.

Then Yu Suzuki goes to the bank (with his 25M purchase agreement with Sega in hand) and asks the banker to personally borrow 20M to fund Shenmue 4 and promises to pay the bank back with the 25 million he'll get once Sega's purchases the game from him.

If the development of the game goes well, and Sega likes what they see... perhaps Sega (originally agreeing to only purchase the completed game from Yu) may opt to become more and more involved financially and invest in the game's development directly?
 
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SMDzero said:
It's like this... Sega doesn't want to risk spending any money developing another Shenmue sequel that they think may not turn out well and lose money.

So Yu Suzuki takes the risk to finance the development of the game himself in exchange for Sega's agreement to purchase the completed game from him (for let's say 25 million dollars) as long as the final delivered game meets the quality standards set by 1 and 2.

This is a good deal for Sega.. they are presented with an opportunity to be hand-delivered another masterpiece Shenmue games on par with 1& 2 and only have to pay 25 million for it so they agree in writing to the purchase if Yu can deliver the game to them.

Then Yu Suzuki goes to the bank (with his 25M purchase agreement with Sega in hand) and asks the banker to personally borrow 20M to fund Shenmue 4 and promises to pay the bank back with the 25 million he'll get once Sega's purchases the game from him.

If the development of the game goes well, and Sega likes what they see... perhaps Sega (originally agreeing to only purchase the completed game from Yu) may opt to become more and more involved financially and invest in the game's development directly?
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Only when Yu goes to the bank to ask for $20m, they laugh in his face.
 
tomboz said:
Only when Yu goes to the bank to ask for $20m, they laugh in his face.
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They'll laugh when he presents to them a 25 million purchase agreement from Sega Corporation?

The bank has an opportunity here to make a cool 5 million on this loan.
 
SMDzero said:
They'll laugh when he presents to them a 25 million purchase agreement from Sega Corporation?

The bank has an opportunity here to make a cool 5 million on this loan.
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Here’s how the conversation would go.

Yu: I’d like to borrow $25m. Here is a purchase order from Sega.
Bank: Why didn’t SEGA just give you the money? Isn’t developing video games kind of what they do?
Yu: Well they sort of weren’t confident that I’d make a good enough game and didn’t want to take the risk.
Bank: So why should we take the risk? Do you have anything you could use as collateral?
Yu: Not really.
Bank: I see. Well this is the fourth game in the series. The previous three must have made quite a lot of profit for you to be asking for $25m?
Yu: Not really. Not one of the games has ever generated $25m after retailer and manufacturing costs are taken into account. The first two games lost Sega around $40m. The publisher for the 3rd game was able to break even thanks to an exclusivity deal and their investment being relatively small, but YSNet lost about $5m on the project. That’s okay though, because it wasn’t really our money.
Bank: Get out.
 
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