Shenmue IV Will Happen - Here's Why!

We don't have data..,
Proceeds to quote random figure with nothing to back it up.
So we are looking at 250-300k minimum…
Another random figure with nothing to back it up. In fact, we have plenty of evidence to suggest that it sold nowhere near this amount in its first week or even its first month. After that, the game was so heavily discounted that any additional sales figures would be kind of pointless, not that we have any.
I can't remember right now a japanese single player AA game on PS4 that sold less than 500k...
I’m sure there are plenty of them, though, unsurprisingly, publishers don’t tend to come out and celebrate their games failing. There have been Sonic games that have sold fewer than 500,000 copies though. Babylon’s Fall and Chocobo GP bombed pretty hard as well, iirc.
Who was this guy?
Another person who thought that making and selling games was “no big deal”.
I never said that selling 500k is easy
You sure as hell implied it. What was it that you said? Even the worst indie games sell 500,000 these days. It’s not that difficult. It’s no big deal.

If any of this were true we’d already have Shenmue 4.

I think it’s probably best that we end the conversation here as we’re just going around in circles and starting to derail the thread.
 
I was wondering which Sammy-Sega game can be compared to Shenmue 3 sales? Valkyria Chronicles probably sells more. Maybe the new Sakura Wars for PS4 is comparable? :) Or Super Monkey Ball Banana Mania? If not Sammy-SEGA, I think sales for Shenmue 3 is closer to these of Atelier games. (these before Ryza)

Found some info on Sakura Wars sales.

I was wondering too
Valkyria is always a slow burner, both hd games (1-4) surpassed 1 million in the end.
The latest Atelier games (Ryza) became a success, Ryza series alone sits now on 2 million and more (there are 3 games), that's impressive, another example about how the current market has a lot more possibilities even for previously niche games like Atelier.

Monkey ball banana mania was a very cheap remake, not in the AA range, and it sold poorly iirc.

Maybe yes Sakura Wars could be comparable, being another previously dead franchise by sega, AA range, exclusive for one platform (well shenmue 3 was pc too) etc
As a japanese kinda visual novel game, 300k isn't even bad.
 
Proceeds to quote random figure with nothing to back it up.

it's called common knowledge, you can do a little research about average percentage.


Another random figure with nothing to back it up. In fact, we have plenty of evidence to suggest that it sold nowhere near this amount in its first week or even its first month. After that, the game was so heavily discounted that any additional sales figures would be kind of pointless, not that we have any.

I'd normally say "your guess is good as mine", but that's not the case.
Your 100k guess is out of this world, you don't even break-even with that figures...
No way Deep silver would say "it sold fine" if that was the case.
So for a AA game to get a kind of profit we are talking about minimum (minimum) 250k-300k.

Also majority of non-nintendo games are heavily discounted in few months, that's how the current market works.
Yakuza games are the same, and I think sega still counts these "pointless" figures when they say "great, it sold 1 million" and the end of the year lol



I’m sure there are plenty of them, though, unsurprisingly, publishers don’t tend to come out and celebrate their games failing. There have been Sonic games that have sold fewer than 500,000 copies though. Babylon’s Fall and Chocobo GP bombed pretty hard as well, iirc.

babylon fall was a gaas, not a standard game
I don't know about chocobo gp, if it's a AA game or something, while the sonic game that failed was the cheap and broken one, Sonic Boom, exclusive to a failed console (Wiiu).


Another person who thought that making and selling games was “no big deal”.

You sure as hell implied it. What was it that you said? Even the worst indie games sell 500,000 these days. It’s not that difficult. It’s no big deal.

If any of this were true we’d already have Shenmue 4.

I think it’s probably best that we end the conversation here as we’re just going around in circles and starting to derail the thread.

It meant something different, not that's easy, but that in the current market there are more possibilities and even indie can surpass 1 million, so the excuse of Shenmue being niche can't be used.
Shenmue has everything to be (again) a million seller franchise.
 
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@spud1897 when do you think shenmue 4 will release if you had to take a guess. Do you think it’s already in development pls answer both questions
Do I think it's in full scale development? No. Maybe being chipped away at.

2025 if I had to guess but based on nothing.
 
Do I think it's in full scale development? No. Maybe being chipped away at.

2025 if I had to guess but based on nothing.
My guess is that it has to be in development now especially if it’s releasing in 2025 2 years of development is not enough for an open-world game
 
If Shenmue 4 is in development they should announce it by the end of this year; they should release a teaser trailer by mid 2024 and should release it by the end of the year or early 2025.
It hurts me to say this; but if Shenmue 4 does not get announced by 2024; this series might as well be considered Dead.
 
Just read the article about Hyenas being the most expensive game Sega have created since Shenmue lol. So sad that they put in all that money for it never to see the light of day. What a waste.

"Although it’s not public knowledge how much Sega invested in Hyenas, former developers told VGC they believe it was the company’s biggest budget ever for a game, beating 1999’s Shenmue which was once claimed to have cost around $70 million.

“I forgot to mention that Hyenas was Sega’s biggest budget game ever,” an anonymous developer also told Volound. “Towards the end, there were people from Sega Japan more or less permanently at the UK office, this has NEVER happened the whole time l’ve worked at CA, they occasionally came to visit and check how a game was looking but as I said previously, generally hands-off.”"


Would be nice if they could get their facts right about Shenmue and the $70 million though. So much misinformation these days :p
 
Would be nice if they could get their facts right about Shenmue and the $70 million though. So much misinformation these days :p
It was Sega themselves that first put the $70m figure out there (or whatever the yen equivalent was back then). Funnily enough, I actually stumbled across the promo video in which they did so fairly recently while looking through some old archive material.
 
If Shenmue 4 is in development they should announce it by the end of this year; they should release a teaser trailer by mid 2024 and should release it by the end of the year or early 2025.
It hurts me to say this; but if Shenmue 4 does not get announced by 2024; this series might as well be considered Dead.

I previously said that 2023 is the limit at least for an announcement, 2024 is already a bit late but still doable.
Since there should be a Shenmue 4 and 5, it's crucial that both games will appear in the same generation of console, to share the same assets, same tech, same marketing and same audience.
If Shenmue 4 will appear in 2025, you must have Shenmue 5 ready for 2026, and in any case before the PS6 and the start of the next gen.

That's the situation, we are approaching the time limit.
 
Then it’s not releasing anytime soon 2 years is not enough for a open-world game why do you think it hasn’t gotten a publisher yet?
That's a discussion for another day.
 
5 Years since the release of 3. Feels quite natural and its more an arbitrary timeline for me.
I see. I was looking more forward to the anime than the games and would rather see a season 2 of that than a sequel to S3 (something I never thought I'd say) but it's hard to tell what's less likely at this point. It's very hard for a TV show to get un-cancelled because everyone involved moves on to other projects so an official cancellation is pretty much a death certificate. Games are far less transparent about sales figures, whether something is in development, and even the team working on it. From everything I heard, the anime actually had a fairly decent audience and the cancellation was more due to unfortunate corporate shenanigans than any kind of financial failure. Shenmue 3, on the other hand, seems to be not a question of whether or not it underperformed, but how badly. That Suzuki's next game was a mobile game of significantly decreased scope speaks volumes.
 
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