It's not bad at all indeed and I want to make it clear: It's close to a 7, it's decent. But the point I'm trying to make is that usually, publishers either want to fund a game for big profits but also sometimes to have a high quality title in their line-up. That's the reason why Sony has been funding Team ICO games. While knowing those wouldn't sell a lot, they knew what to expect in quality. The point is to get a prestige title.
Thing is, Shenmue III isn't a game that scored overall a 8 or even 9. It doesn't fall in the "prestige title" category.
Also about exclusives: I have nothing against them depending on context. I'm not saying it's outside of the norm. What I'm saying is that it's a way to offset the risk. And for a publisher, to break even on a game with 2 exclusive deals and a crowdfunding campaign is a tough sell. I'm not dunking on the game for having exclusive deals mind you. What I'm saying is that for a publisher, if their only hope to get their money back is to convince 2 parties to buy an exclusivity deal and rely on crowdfunding, that's complicated. Especially when in the end, it's not a prestige title you're getting here.
So had you made that clear in the process of your original post I'd have likely not replied.
The Team ICO games are a matter of opinion, I hated Shadow of Colossus with a passion but loved Last Guardian but yes they did review generally well. I never played ICO so I can't comment on that. From having played the other 2 games they're also very different to Shenmue in scope, lots of wondering around wastelands etc with set-pieces/boss type fights. Not a criticism at all and probably likely more appealing from a cost perspective as you can reuse lots of assets throughout. Last Guardian is one of my favourite games of this generation.
On average, no it didn't but in some outlets it did achieve those scores. I think a 6.8 (rounded to 7) is about right overall given the well discussed flaws. So there is something there that a publisher can work with and Shenmue does carry a presence in gaming history, for better or woese.
In terms of the exclusivity deals, we know Sony came in and backed the franchise hence their exclusive deal. Had Microsoft came in I suspect we would have seen the same thing. That's not a protection of investment either, Sony saw the name as a coo for E3 2015 and given the buzz generated it certainly was and further backed their stance at the time that they were "for the players". It likely generated PS4 sales and then further game sales, which were directly because people bought a PS4 for Shenmue. Now I agree it isn't going to be a huge amount of money but I reckon they made their money back on the deal they had in place, certainly through indirect channels. Just my 2 cents on that.
Deep Silver going down the Epic route is something they have done more frequently with their recent games, the biggest being Metro. Now why wouldn't you as a business take a set sum of money upfront which likely means something breaks even before it goes on sale? More and more publishers/Indie studios are doing this because it makes business sense. It might not be appealing to the larger publishers but they're also better placed to take the hit should things go south in a hurry. Plus your dramatising again, it wasn't their only hope to make money their money back but clearly part of a plan they had for the game to ensure profit. It gives them a solid return on-top of sales and given it did meet expectations (we can guess all we want whether that was due to the Epic Deal or not) that gives Yu Suzuki a card to play with.
Should we see a Shenmue 4 I could certainly see something like that happening again as a wider money making model, which is becoming much more common place in these more niche games that we see.
Is it enticing enough for Sega to come on and fund the game given their cash-cow franchises? Probably not. They could afford to but given they're making money off of outsourcing their older licences why would they? One thing I do think is safe to say is there probably won't be any issue with Yu Suzuki getting the IP again for Shenmue 4.
