Shenmue 3 Sales

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ShenSun said:
Do you have some links or proof of red dead or star wars only selling 20k copies?
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Deduction. No sales number. Epic wont communicate around them. Simple reason why: Those games weren't exclusives to Epic Store. And concurrent numbers for Star Wars show that most of the sales were on Steam (46K CCU + close to a million sale). Considering how Origin is second when it comes to being established and how populated the Top 20 on Epic Store is... yeah, it's an easy conclusion. Now, you can choose not to believe me.

As for Red Dead, considering how during preorder period it was lagging behind, you can apply the same reasoning.
 
GhostTrick said:
Deduction. No sales number. Epic wont communicate around them. Simple reason why: Those games weren't exclusives to Epic Store. And concurrent numbers for Star Wars show that most of the sales were on Steam (46K CCU + close to a million sale). Considering how Origin is second when it comes to being established and how populated the Top 20 on Epic Store is... yeah, it's an easy conclusion. Now, you can choose not to believe me.

As for Red Dead, considering how during preorder period it was lagging behind, you can apply the same reasoning.
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Yeah, id have to see some hard figures and facts before i believe that reasoning. Thanks for the explanation though. It looks like both of us are speculating from different perspectives, so we're just gonna wait and see how it all pans out.
 
ShenSun said:
Yeah, id have to see some hard figures and facts before i believe that reasoning. Thanks for the explanation though. It looks like both of us are speculating from different perspectives, so we're just gonna wait and see how it all pans out.
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steamdb.info

STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ · AppID: 1172380

A galaxy-spanning adventure awaits in Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order, a 3rd person action-adventure title from Respawn. An abandoned Padawan must complete his training, develop new powerful Force abilities, and master the art of the lightsaber - all while staying one step ahead of the Empire. STAR...
steamdb.info steamdb.info

It's the closest you can find. There's no reason to think those game move significant amount when it was sold elsewhere. If you wanted to get RDR2 or Star Wars, you'd have to get it from Epic Store. Thing is, why would you get it there ? Every other places sold those games on different stores. And as I said, the entire top is populated with older, not well selling titles, such as Control.
 
GhostTrick said:
steamdb.info

STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ · AppID: 1172380

A galaxy-spanning adventure awaits in Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order, a 3rd person action-adventure title from Respawn. An abandoned Padawan must complete his training, develop new powerful Force abilities, and master the art of the lightsaber - all while staying one step ahead of the Empire. STAR...
steamdb.info steamdb.info

It's the closest you can find. There's no reason to think those game move significant amount when it was sold elsewhere. If you wanted to get RDR2 or Star Wars, you'd have to get it from Epic Store. Thing is, why would you get it there ? Every other places sold those games on different stores. And as I said, the entire top is populated with older, not well selling titles, such as Control.
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But then that goes back to my earlier point, if it was organic traffic, i could see that perspective. But its not, they are
using paid advertisements to drive sales for Star wars and Shenmue. Not to mention cross promotion with fortnite in star wars case.

In Red Dead's case, you can get it elsewhere but its not on steam as of right now, which makes me think there a ton of users on the Epic store as they are not using any ads to push the game to number 1.

Epic have a massive install base across their unreal engine users, fortnite users, the store, Epic accounts etc. All of that could easily be monetized using advertisements to push massive sales, or even a simple notification that to their base of an upcoming product, etc

If the store was a total bomb financially and from a business perspective, you'd have to question their sanity in keeping it open. Fortunetly for them, they are in a special position. They have a ton of money to take a hit on the frontend to get users into their ecosystem, which they can then make the money back and then some on the backend with products, promotion and ads
 
ShenSun said:
But then that goes back to my earlier point, if it was organic traffic, i could see that perspective. But its not, they are
using paid advertisements to drive sales for Star wars and Shenmue. Not to mention cross promotion with fortnite in star wars case.

In Red Dead's case, you can get it elsewhere but its not on steam as of right now, which makes me think there a ton of users on the Epic store as they are not using any ads to push the game to number 1.

Epic have a massive install base across their unreal engine users, fortnite users, the store, Epic accounts etc. All of that could easily be monetized using advertisements to push massive sales, or even a simple notification that to their base of an upcoming product, etc

If the store was a total bomb financially and from a business perspective, you'd have to question their sanity in keeping it open. Fortunetly for them, they are in a special position. They have a ton of money to take a hit on the frontend to get users into their ecosystem, which they can then make the money back and then some on the backend with products, promotion and ads
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You can get it elsewhere, on places more popular than Epic's store.
As for the Fortnite users, it's irrelevant. You don't trust me ? Then trust Epic Store's director of publishing, Sergey Galyonkin:
galyonk.in

Your target audience doesn’t exist

Why you shouldn’t talk about “MOBA audience”, “core gamers”, “female gamers” and instead think smaller.
galyonk.in galyonk.in

That's when he was doing Steamspy. Free to play games have a terrible convert rate to paying games.
Keep in mind that Red Dead 2 was initially outsold by Outer Worlds. Despite the latter not setting charts on fire... and being widely available on PC gamepass (so for 1 to 5 bucks). Red Dead 2 and Star Wars are first while being a marginal number out of their total sales on PC. In Red Dead's case, it's not on Steam yet, it's selling on Rockstar Launcher and every other stores (save for humble) are selling Rockstar Launcher keys.
 
BruceWayne911 said:
Id


Facts. IMO Shenmue 4 is almost a guarantee. The 6-7 million raised in Kickstarter dollars can be used as a baseline for budgeting the remaining games in the series.

IMO what we have to worry about is Shenmue 4 not going to Kickstarter and that game selling poorly.



SIDENOTE

I would like to see Yu Suzuki and company sell slots to the Shenmue community to be apart of the game again. This can generate alot of revenue for the series seeing as the Shenmue community is full of fanatics. I personally like seeing my portrait in the "Save Shenmue Museum."
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Agreed I would help this time around. I’m in a much better financial position.
 
GhostTrick said:
That's when he was doing Steamspy. Free to play games have a terrible convert rate to paying games.
Keep in mind that Red Dead 2 was initially outsold by Outer Worlds. Despite the latter not setting charts on fire... and being widely available on PC gamepass (so for 1 to 5 bucks). Red Dead 2 and Star Wars are first while being a marginal number out of their total sales on PC. In Red Dead's case, it's not on Steam yet, it's selling on Rockstar Launcher and every other stores (save for humble) are selling Rockstar Launcher keys.
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Who cares if the conversion rate is terrible? Check this out:

As of March this year Fortnite has over 250 million players, if Epic can convince even a fraction of a percentage of them to buy Shenmue 3 we're laughing. Granted the Epic store won't replace Steam anytime soon but they're certainly making a go of it. Right now Shenmue 3 is a key part of Epic's strategy, as exclusive content you can't get elsewhere on PC. That's the kind of marketing push Shenmue 3 just wouldn't receive without Epic's help and it might well be enough to drive Shenmue 3 all the way into profitability by itself.
 
GhostTrick said:
You can get it elsewhere, on places more popular than Epic's store.
As for the Fortnite users, it's irrelevant. You don't trust me ? Then trust Epic Store's director of publishing, Sergey Galyonkin:
galyonk.in

Your target audience doesn’t exist

Why you shouldn’t talk about “MOBA audience”, “core gamers”, “female gamers” and instead think smaller.
galyonk.in galyonk.in

That's when he was doing Steamspy. Free to play games have a terrible convert rate to paying games.
Keep in mind that Red Dead 2 was initially outsold by Outer Worlds. Despite the latter not setting charts on fire... and being widely available on PC gamepass (so for 1 to 5 bucks). Red Dead 2 and Star Wars are first while being a marginal number out of their total sales on PC. In Red Dead's case, it's not on Steam yet, it's selling on Rockstar Launcher and every other stores (save for humble) are selling Rockstar Launcher keys.
Click to expand...

Its true free to play games dont convert well to paying games, but they're not solely relying on only fortnite players to drive sales. Staying with this example, even if 0.2% of fortnite players of the 250 million fortnite base did convert, that alone would be great news since their install base is massive. The other 99.8% being ones that don't convert

Even without fortnite, Epic still have an install base through their Epic accounts, unreal engine, store, contacts, etc, so you could still apply the same principles that ive mentioned in my previous posts.

Even without all of that. Epic and Deep Silver are advertising all over the place, not just their install base. Youtube, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter etc etc, and those are the only ones im aware of, digitally. The second they find a winning targeting audience and strategy that converts into sales, you can scale that big time to bring in more sales. Warm prospects from the data gathered during those campaigns are prime candidates for market re targeting, which would bring in more sales. This is me still assuming a low 1% conversion rate of all of it. That and im only talking about one small avenue of marketing that they could take. They probably have a massive strategy planned to exhausted all their contacts and other avenues, digitally, physically, etc

It's speculation on my both of our parts. That's why i keep saying, we all need to wait and see. We should all have a better understanding in a few months time of whats going on, when announcements and figures are released.
 
Kintor said:
Who cares if the conversion rate is terrible? Check this out:

As of March this year Fortnite has over 250 million players, if Epic can convince even a fraction of a percentage of them to buy Shenmue 3 we're laughing. Granted the Epic store won't replace Steam anytime soon but they're certainly making a go of it. Right now Shenmue 3 is a key part of Epic's strategy, as exclusive content you can't get elsewhere on PC. That's the kind of marketing push Shenmue 3 just wouldn't receive without Epic's help and it might well be enough to drive Shenmue 3 all the way into profitability by itself.
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250 millions of Fortnite users arent 250 millions of Fortnite PC users.
The number is actually a lot lower on PC. If you were to use the metric of Epic account holders, that's 85M accounts, not all of them playing on PC. Making the userbase from that rate even lower.

What strategy does Epic have with Shenmue ? Cause I dont see any.
Now if you want to believe Shenmue 3 will sell good numbers on EGS, keep the dream alive, it's just not happening.
 
GhostTrick said:
What strategy does Epic have with Shenmue ? Cause I dont see any.
Now if you want to believe Shenmue 3 will sell good numbers on EGS, keep the dream alive, it's just not happening.
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I don't have to dream, I can see it why my own eyes - Shenmue 3 had a great debut on the Epic store. If the game can stay high in the Epic charts over the coming weeks then so much the better. You're the one here who's trying downplay the significance of this success. As though one of the largest digital stores on PC won't have a noticeable impact on Shenmue 3's financials.
 
Kintor said:
I don't have to dream, I can see it why my own eyes - Shenmue 3 had a great debut on the Epic store. If the game can stay high in the Epic charts over the coming weeks then so much the better. You're the one here who's trying downplay the significance of this success. As though one of the largest digital stores on PC won't have a noticeable impact on Shenmue 3's financials.
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"Shenmue 3 had a great debut on the Epic Store".
Alright question time: How many sales do you think ranking #3 is equal to ?
What's that great debut you're talking about ?

"One of the largest PC store"
Question time again: What volume ? Because if you're going to tell me "epic accounts" think that metric again. Epic account =/ Epic store.

I dont want to be a party pooper and I'm sorry to break it for you, but it doesnt sounds like Shenmue 3 has sold well anywhere. It debuted in UK at half the sales of the remaster. And it seems to have done the same in Japan.

Shenmue wasnt going to set charts on fire on PC but it had a chance at finding a new audience. Epic Store pretty much killed all that possibility. And when Shenmue 3 was nowhere to be seen in that top during preorder period, it pretty much tells me how low sales are required to breach into that top (Control has been in that top since the begining despite being a failure saleswise. Heck, Rune II is also there despite being a huge failure. When Rune 2 was there but not Shenmue 3 during preorder time, that pretty much tells you how very few copies you need to get into that top).

And as I explained earlier, EGS is likely the place where RDR2 and Star Wars sold the least. When I say the least, I mean that selling 5 to 10% of PC sales for those games on that store would already be generous.
 
GhostTrick said:
"Shenmue 3 had a great debut on the Epic Store".
Alright question time: How many sales do you think ranking #3 is equal to ?
What's that great debut you're talking about ?
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I don't know the exact figures because Epic (like Steam) doesn't publish the raw data. I daresay though it's got to be more than the 20k figure you've been lowballing these past few pages. Let's add a couple of decimal places to that figure and we might be approaching a more reasonable amount from the house of Fortnite.

GhostTrick said:
Shenmue wasnt going to set charts on fire on PC but it had a chance at finding a new audience. Epic Store pretty much killed all that possibility.
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You see I think the opposite is true. Shenmue 3 would've been lost in the shuffle on Steam. Being an Epic exclusive (for the time being) gives Shenmue 3 much more attention from all the PC gamers that use the store. I mean, Shenmue 3 isn't the most expensive game in the world, might just be enough to get Epic users interested who might otherwise be sitting on the fence.
 
GhostTrick said:
"Shenmue 3 had a great debut on the Epic Store".
Alright question time: How many sales do you think ranking #3 is equal to ?
What's that great debut you're talking about ?

"One of the largest PC store"
Question time again: What volume ? Because if you're going to tell me "epic accounts" think that metric again. Epic account =/ Epic store.

I dont want to be a party pooper and I'm sorry to break it for you, but it doesnt sounds like Shenmue 3 has sold well anywhere. It debuted in UK at half the sales of the remaster. And it seems to have done the same in Japan.

Shenmue wasnt going to set charts on fire on PC but it had a chance at finding a new audience. Epic Store pretty much killed all that possibility. And when Shenmue 3 was nowhere to be seen in that top during preorder period, it pretty much tells me how low sales are required to breach into that top (Control has been in that top since the begining despite being a failure saleswise. Heck, Rune II is also there despite being a huge failure. When Rune 2 was there but not Shenmue 3 during preorder time, that pretty much tells you how very few copies you need to get into that top).

And as I explained earlier, EGS is likely the place where RDR2 and Star Wars sold the least. When I say the least, I mean that selling 5 to 10% of PC sales for those games on that store would already be generous.
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Can we stop with the anti Epic rant now. You’ve been criticizing Epic more or less none stop since the exclusivity deal was announced and are now trying to state conjecture as fact.

It’s very difficult to make any concrete statements about the Epic store due to the lack of figures, but the latest borderlands game was the fastest selling Borderlands game on PC and had around twice as many launch day players as Borderlands 2 had at its peak and Metro Exodus sold more than twice as many copies as the Metro game that came before it. Indie games like Satisfactory have moved more than half a million copies through the Epic store, so they must be doing something right.

You clearly don’t like Epic (and that’s fine), but do you really have to continue telling us how bad it is?
 
Kintor said:
I don't know the exact figures because Epic (like Steam) doesn't publish the raw data. I daresay though it's got to be more than the 20k figure you've been lowballing these past few pages. Let's add a couple of decimal places to that figure and we might be approaching a more reasonable amount from the house of Fortnite.


You see I think the opposite is true. Shenmue 3 would've been lost in the shuffle on Steam. Being an Epic exclusive (for the time being) gives Shenmue 3 much more attention from all the PC gamers that use the store. I mean, Shenmue 3 isn't the most expensive game in the world, might just be enough to get Epic users interested who might otherwise be sitting on the fence.
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It's funny. I always here about "game lost on Steam". At the same time, I see a shitload of niche titles getting super successful on Steam (Like Risk of Rain 2 which sold over a million units in a few weeks).

When in reality, what we see is lower profile releases has been sent to death on Epic's store and word of mouth litterally died.


tomboz said:
Can we stop with the anti Epic rant now. You’ve been criticizing Epic more or less none stop since the exclusivity deal was announced and are now trying to state conjecture as fact.

It’s very difficult to make any concrete statements about the Epic store due to the lack of figures, but the latest borderlands game was the fastest selling Borderlands game on PC and had around twice as many launch day players as Borderlands 2 had at its peak and Metro Exodus sold more than twice as many copies as the Metro game that came before it. Indie games like Satisfactory have moved more than half a million copies through the Epic store, so they must be doing something right.

You clearly don’t like Epic (and that’s fine), but do you really have to continue telling us how bad it is?
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Why would I stop when it's about sales ? We're talking sales. We're making a point about sales.

I'm saying sales must been low, trying to argue around that, throwing datas and such around it.
I'm not saying "Epic bad, Epic evil".
I'm saying "When you look at the top 20 over the weeks, when you see that underperforming titles are still there despite their age, it indicate that entering that top doesnt require to move a lot of copies" "The two top titles are also titles that might have sold most of their copies elsewhere".


As for your other metrics, it's irrelevant for two reasons: Those were games from 2011-2012. Since then, PC as a platform has seen a huge growth.
You'll also know that language around sales for those titles was always carefully chosen. Never concrete numbers but "it's the fastest around that period (usually a week)".

The less transparent you are, the more you're hiding.
 
GhostTrick said:
It's funny. I always here about "game lost on Steam". At the same time, I see a shitload of niche titles getting super successful on Steam (Like Risk of Rain 2 which sold over a million units in a few weeks).

When in reality, what we see is lower profile releases has been sent to death on Epic's store and word of mouth litterally died.






Why would I stop when it's about sales ? We're talking sales. We're making a point about sales.

I'm saying sales must been low, trying to argue around that, throwing datas and such around it.
I'm not saying "Epic bad, Epic evil".
I'm saying "When you look at the top 20 over the weeks, when you see that underperforming titles are still there despite their age, it indicate that entering that top doesnt require to move a lot of copies" "The two top titles are also titles that might have sold most of their copies elsewhere".


As for your other metrics, it's irrelevant for two reasons: Those were games from 2011-2012. Since then, PC as a platform has seen a huge growth.
You'll also know that language around sales for those titles was always carefully chosen. Never concrete numbers but "it's the fastest around that period (usually a week)".

The less transparent you are, the more you're hiding.
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Yeah, they might have sold more elsewhere, but stating that less than 10% of the sales being through Epic is a little ridiculous since you don’t have a clue. Epic has a much larger install base than the Rockstar launcher and probably GOG, so the fair assumption would be that most of the copies were sold through Epic, but as we are all in the dark, such assumptions would be foolish.

On top of that, you’re comparing Famitsu’s S3 figures with Media Create’s S1/2 figures. Famitsu has S1/2 down as under 20,000 sales in its first week while leaked Media Create figures suggest S3 sold just shy of 40,000. Cherry-picking which figures to compare seems a little disingenuous. I could just as easily compare Media Create’s S3 figures to Famitsu’s S1/2 figures and say that S3 sold twice as well...
 
We also have to consider in the UK sales that there was a significant number of backers who may not have bought a copy. This would skew the figures and we dont know the digital sales as yet.
 
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