Kickstarter Update #100 - Shenmue III delayed until November 19th

Van Joel Sandwich said:
I hate to say it. But I hope they don't end up releasing the game in November.
Everybody seems to agree on that.
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The problem is, if GhostTrick's speculation is correct
GhostTrick said:
Q1 2020 is likely going to be Final Fantasy VII, The Last of Us 2 and maybe Resident Evil 3 Remake... and possibly more after E3.
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then early 2020 would end up being even worse. August was a great spot in this regard, but I can't imagine they would've delayed if they didn't have a great reason to.
 
Can we please not delve into the realm of emotional hyperbole? I get that it sucks, but a matter of months does not mean Shenmue IV is in danger, or that Shenmue III is going to be cancelled, or that all hopes of success are ruined etc.
 
ShaveShenmue said:
This is going to turn into a huge mess isn't it? Zero gameplay is not good this close to release. People using the resident evil 2 remake as an example well we're well past that now even with new delay.They showed playable gameplay 6 and a half months before re2 release and actually I remember them saying the game is finished just needs polishing. We were 3 months from release now back to 5 months. If there is no gameplay at e3 there's something wrong. Honestly name me a game without gameplay 3/5 months before release, not saying there isn't but will be interesting to see how those games turned out.
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Feeling like a broken record but the "there's no gameplay" stuff just doesn't pass muster when we literally had half a dozen gameplay previews based on 15-20 minutes of regular gameplay just a few months ago. Same with the press demo in a week.

We all want to see it for ourselves, but why do we tread down this illogical path that something is being hidden when the game is being openly shown and put in the hands of people who are employed to report on and criticise video games?
 
GhostTrick said:
Q1 2020 is likely going to be Final Fantasy VII, The Last of Us 2 and maybe Resident Evil 3 Remake... and possibly more after E3.
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No way RE3 is coming q1 2020 more like q1 2021. Shenmue 3 could slot in end or mid January 2020 depending on what games are coming out. Releasing it around other larger titles will kill it. Same happened to evil within 2 (great game) a sequel but it's sales barely reached over a 100k. Only that was Oct 2017 and it's not so much the month but the releasing around the same time as other big games.
 
ShaveShenmue said:
If this is released in November there won't be a shenmue 4 , shenmue won't sell and it will reinforce the lie that shenmue can't financially succeed. People won't talk about 7m+ raised they'll talk about well shenmue 3 barely sold.

It doesn't need to sell that well to break even.
spud1897 said:
Upon which basis are you making that judgement?

It could bomb for sure. But it could also sell well and make profit. Remember $7million of the budget is free money as we paid that.

So the total budget is $20 million (ambitious) inclusive of our backer funds. So call it $13 million. They sell to shops at $30 initially. Sell 450k copies you break even.

600k = $5 million profit
700k = $8 million profit

The re-releases did around 300k sales alone. A new game will definitely IMO do more.

@Van Joel Sandwich thanks for the inspiration Haha.
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spud1897 said:
Upon which basis are you making that judgement?

It could bomb for sure. But it could also sell well and make profit. Remember $7million of the budget is free money as we paid that.

So the total budget is $20 million (ambitious) inclusive of our backer funds. So call it $13 million. They sell to shops at $30 initially. Sell 450k copies you break even.

600k = $5 million profit
700k = $8 million profit

The re-releases did around 300k sales alone. A new game will definitely IMO do more.

@Van Joel Sandwich thanks for the inspiration Haha.
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See above.

ShaveShenmue said:
If this is released in November there won't be a shenmue 4 , shenmue won't sell and it will reinforce the lie that shenmue can't financially succeed. People won't talk about 7m+ raised they'll talk about well shenmue 3 barely sold.
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Is the window risky. If course but any release window is barring the late summer.

It doesn't need to sell millions to make money. I debate the budget is even as high as I've estimated in my post above.

Saying we wont get a Shenmue 4 because of a release window is ott. Yes its risky but with some good marketing (if this happens) it can position itself as the different alternative to the status quo and sell well based upon that and disgruntled gamer who've had enough of COD or Fifa every year.
 
Spaghetti said:
Feeling like a broken record but the "there's no gameplay" stuff just doesn't pass muster when we literally had half a dozen gameplay previews based on 15-20 minutes of regular gameplay just a few months ago. Same with the press demo in a week.

We all want to see it for ourselves, but why do we tread down this illogical path that something is being hidden when the game is being openly shown and put in the hands of people who are employed to report on and criticise video games?
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No im not saying there's no gameplay but is the gameplay very bad on the eye? Or still looks like it's in the alpha stage?
 
The evil within 2 got robbed. Such a good game. I recommend it if you're into horrors.

It just doesn't sit well with me. Suzuki and Co have been slaving away for years on Shenmue 3, only for some plank, most likely at deep silver to muck it up right at the end.
 
Van Joel Sandwich said:
Dude, many many triple A games show gameplay 3 or 4 weeks before the release. And until now, nobody bied because of that.
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It's rare though, but I do feel they will want to show something soon to tide fans over. A delay and then nothing looks bad, but I don't think (well I hope) they won't leave us waiting too long. We may even still get a new trailer or whatever next week during the E3 week.
 
So in the Gematsu comment section I'm now reading that a pokemon game is probably releasing in November as well. Good lord just fuck my shit up.

ShenSun said:
The evil within 2 got robbed. Such a good game. I recommend it if you're into horrors.

It just doesn't sit well with me. Suzuki and Co have been slaving away for years on Shenmue 3, only for some plank, most likely at deep silver to muck it up right at the end.
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At least you got a second chance to ask for a leave of absence...
 
To be fair, Pokemon is a different console and different audience/demographic really, but yeah, it's going to be a crammed month. It's a shame they couldn't get it out in August, because they really seemed like the perfect time for the game.
 
spud1897 said:
See above.



Is the window risky. If course but any release window is barring the late summer.

It doesn't need to sell millions to make money. I debate the budget is even as high as I've estimated in my post above.

Saying we wont get a Shenmue 4 because of a release window is ott. Yes its risky but with some good marketing (if this happens) it can position itself as the different alternative to the status quo and sell well based upon that and disgruntled gamer who've had enough of COD or Fifa every year.
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But why risk it? Why not give shenmue the best chance to succeed? I'm not saying because of the release window we won't get shenmue 4 but if 3 sells bad or really bad can you honestly see a 4?
 
ShaveShenmue said:
But why risk it? Why not give shenmue the best chance to succeed? I'm not saying because of the release window we won't get shenmue 4 but if 3 sells bad or really bad can you honestly see a 4?
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I'll have to dig the quote from Cedric but I'm sure he said if it flopped 4 is 50/50.

The window is definitely risky
 
Shenmue 3 will be fine. The example I've used is that Darksiders 3 released last year on November 27th and even that game turned a profit. Many said that game was dead on arrival and I would argue Shenmue 3 has much more anticipation going for it than the Darksiders IP. It will release 9 days before black friday and will have a slow month of December to be picked up by holiday shoppers as many retailers run deals.
 
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