Random Shenmue IV Thoughts.

[Valascaziel]

There's a verified guy on ResetEra who seems pretty confident we'll get IV. When pressed if he knew something, he initially said no, then said "well not really" and dismissed it as a hunch.

I don't buy it and I'm sure he and probably others know it'll be coming--chances are work on it will begin after the new year, if it hasn't already started yet.

You know how Infinity War and Endgame were filmed simultaneously? Same concept here I think.

 

[Kdog4sado]

So awesome this board exists, I was having so many Shen 4 thoughts today!

For example, how likely, with the foundation of 3 already being a factor is a potential 4? I ask because 1 and 2 seemed to have a reasonable turn around and definitely seemed to re use and improve certain assets.
Also, since the 3rd game was funded by Kickstarter, isn't the potential for profit greater than it would normally, granted if the game sells, let's say, 100k?

 

[ARokitLawnChair]

What are the chances that Shenmue IV gets a health budget to work with that's on par with AAA games, and will a larger publisher, like Sega, come back into the fold?

I mean the social media accounts for Sega Europe like acknowledging Shenmue 3 and Suzuki, I know that means squat but at least there’s no corporate rule they aren’t allowed to promote it in some way. Perhaps the HD collections moved some numbers and the thought that they could multiplatform release 4 is appealing to them?

 

[Valascaziel]

I love speculating about the future of this series, so I'm happy this board exists. Let me extrapolate further on my thoughts:

We have to get away from the trepidation that haunted us for 14 years(going from it's announcement). The Kickstarter was put in place to determine if there was enough interest to continue the series and to build a subsequent team around it.

The original Kickstarter had a goal of $2 million to start with, an astronomical amount for a video game crowdfund. It smashed it in, what, a day or two?

Part of it was hype, but it wasn't hype alone that got it all the way to damn near $7 million by the end.

Not only that, it inevitably spurred Sega to finally acknowledge and release the HD versions, as well as admit they originally planned true remastered(i.e. remade) versions of at least the original Shenmue.

Deep Silver, despite their missteps, saw potential in this series and invested further. Sega had a hand in lending assets, etc.

I like to use Darksiders III as a template for success here. It was a game with a moderate budget and decidedly AA quality, which reviewed all across the spectrum akin to S3.

At roughly 71,000 copies sold on just Steam(console was unknown) it was enough to turn profit and get a sequel greenlit. This was a game without crowdfunding assets and we've no idea what they put into S3(estimates are around 5 or 6 million).

One could extrapolate from their statements that it'd need to sell 100k copies to be a winner, that it did so. To think this game won't sell at *least* that is complete folly, not with this community.

Let's generalize math here(not entirely accurate considering cuts or costs before you get to profit margin) assuming a $60 sale as baseline:

50,000 copies sold: $3,000,000
100,000 copies sold: $6,000,000
250,000 copies sold: $15,000,000
500,000 copies sold: $30,000,000

None of this basic math takes into account costs for advertising, etc but gives you a general idea that even 250,000 yields a nice success. It is also worth noting I believe S3 is a timed exclusive for Sony and will come to Xbox in the next few months, which will further sales.

We look at ourselves here at the Dojo in the context of a bubble. There are far more Shenmue fans out there, not everyone is a member of the Dojo, 500k, etc.

The team is in place, the equipment, the engine, the actors, the community has shown how eager they are. There's no need for further action by the community to fund anything, really.

I fully expect IV to come in the next couple of years.

Yu now has no looming date, no pressure to push something out to the public until it is ready to be shown.

 

[KalJenko]

It is also worth noting I believe S3 is a timed exclusive for Sony and will come to Xbox in the next few months, which will further sales.

I believe it will come to X-Box the same time that it comes to Steam, like a Complete Edition with all the DLC included on disk. Also the same complete edition will come to Ps4 as well at the same time. Thus getting a second wind of sales out of new fans on X-Box and those who waited for Steam and also us fans who already own it but will buy a complete edition on Ps4 anyway.

 

[Revan]

So...when do you think we might hear a “Shenmue 4 has now begun development” announcement?

Magic Monaco 2020? E3 2020?

 

[darksniper]

After seeing all the easter eggs and Yu Suzuki's thank you note at the end, I almost get the sense that he rushed to get Shenmue III out the way so he can focus on Shenmue IV. I get the sense that that IV has been what the delays have been about. I'm looking forward to see him expand on the engine as it's looking good so far. Just need to see more of the story fleshed out and some key questions answered.

 

[celsowm]

I like to take as examples, games with built engine, like Just Cause 3.
It would have been a total waste of time and money not to reuse all to create, at least, Just Cause 4.

In my opinion, as a developer (not game), Shenmue 4 would take something between 2 or 3 years to be developed.

 

[Sput Vas Normandy]

I like to take as examples, games with built engine, like Just Cause 3.
It would have been a total waste of time and money not to reuse all to create, at least, Just Cause 4.

In my opinion, as a developer (not game), Shenmue 4 would take something between 2 or 3 years to be developed.

Not 18? Well that's a great progress I must say!

 

[Amir]

Should they update the formula at all if they get to make a fourth Shenmue?

I really don't want a repeat of the same mechanics. I was most looking forward to the Character Perspective System and Siege Game in Shenmue III, and was gutted they were axed in favour of bringing back old mechanics and minigames. I can't get hyped for a Shenmue IV if it's gonna be the same deal as Shenmue III.

 

[mjqjazzbar]

Same here. Enough "Lucky Hit" and forklifts. These were cute nods to the past, but they're really not a whole lot of fun and the novelty is gone. Get the rights to some Sega arcade classics if you need to get some mini games in there to pass the time. The formula needs some WD40...

I think the first step is ensuring Shenmue 4 tells a substantial portion of the story and moves along. We might have the utmost respect for Yu Suzuki's vision, but he clearly didn't do a great storytelling job with Shenmue 3. If these chapters really have so little exposition, then he's in need of an editor.

 

[jsh020]

If we are gonna get 4, when do you guys think they will announce it? Like do you think they will wait till its far enough into development to make a teaser or do you think we'd just see a nonchallant "hey its in development" notification in like a few months. I feel like how it sells on steam in a year might influence the game's exsistence so I feel like we might be left in the dark for a while.

 

[ComfyBeats]

After seeing all the easter eggs and Yu Suzuki's thank you note at the end, I almost get the sense that he rushed to get Shenmue III out the way so he can focus on Shenmue IV. I get the sense that that IV has been what the delays have been about.

Truthfully I hope that's the reason why. Most of the content shown off last year seemed to be in place already, especially the final confrontation with Lan Di.

 

[Nigel]

After seeing all the easter eggs and Yu Suzuki's thank you note at the end, I almost get the sense that he rushed to get Shenmue III out the way so he can focus on Shenmue IV. I get the sense that that IV has been what the delays have been about. I'm looking forward to see him expand on the engine as it's looking good so far. Just need to see more of the story fleshed out and some key questions answered.

If this is the case, I'll be much more generous about III. I've softened on my criticism since completing it, but I'd feel better about its shortcomings if Yu is playing the long game here.

 

[Dmitriy1]

So...when do you think we might hear a “Shenmue 4 has now begun development” announcement?

Magic Monaco 2020? E3 2020?

DLCs for S3 have to be said to be 100% done. If they are anything like Skyrim DLCs, and other RPGs I got them for. Big quest in a new area each.

 

[Lan Di-sama]

Finished the game this morning and as frustrated as I am, I do have to concede that as a game it was a viable entry. Story issues aside, I think it's salvageable. I sure am glad I didn't pledge more than $200, but I'd pledge that much again to see it through. I want to play Shenmue IV.

I enjoyed Shenmue III's gameplay and the way the economy worked, but far too much attention was spent on trinkets and move scrolls (when ultimately, the button inputs were nonsensical and impossible to memorize and you just get to a point where you level up enough to beat the next boss).

But, I just can't see Shenmue 4 happening especially when each game kind of "resets" as a video game and introduces new game mechanics, environments, etc. I mean, are we really going to have to start over from Level 1, train in some really boring Dojo with pointless NPC fighters, collect items and gamble our way through to the next plot point, etc? Find some new gang to fight, meet some new characters while completely forgetting about the old ones, etc.

They need to find a way to carry over the gameplay framework from Shenmue 3 but actually inject the story into that framework. Even though Shenmue 2's plot really didn't progress much either until the end (I was always a bit frustrated the save Yuanda Zhu quest became the entire game) the journey Ryo takes along the way is very meaningful. The back and forth fetch quests of Shenmue 3 just didn't stack up. I just don't know how they can rinse and repeat this formula for even one more game, let alone 2 .. or 3?

 

[Dmitriy1]

Finished the game this morning and as frustrated as I am, I do have to concede that as a game it was a viable entry. Story issues aside, I think it's salvageable. I sure am glad I didn't pledge more than $200, but I'd pledge that much again to see it through. I want to play Shenmue IV.

I enjoyed Shenmue III's gameplay and the way the economy worked, but far too much attention was spent on trinkets and move scrolls (when ultimately, the button inputs were nonsensical and impossible to memorize and you just get to a point where you level up enough to beat the next boss).

But, I just can't see Shenmue 4 happening especially when each game kind of "resets" as a video game and introduces new game mechanics, environments, etc. I mean, are we really going to have to start over from Level 1, train in some really boring Dojo with pointless NPC fighters, collect items and gamble our way through to the next plot point, etc? Find some new gang to fight, meet some new characters while completely forgetting about the old ones, etc.

They need to find a way to carry over the gameplay framework from Shenmue 3 but actually inject the story into that framework. Even though Shenmue 2's plot really didn't progress much either until the end (I was always a bit frustrated the save Yuanda Zhu quest became the entire game) the journey Ryo takes along the way is very meaningful. The back and forth fetch quests of Shenmue 3 just didn't stack up. I just don't know how they can rinse and repeat this formula for even one more game, let alone 2 .. or 3?

About moves and memorizing them. They aren't meaningless to me. There are about 6 I really love, so I spared training each after it was mastered, until my fingers actually mastered them. There's an idiotic review calling S3 combat simplistic martial arts. Only morons that mash buttons can ever write that. There are very powerful moves you must learn to slide your thumb on buttons to learn yes. Some slides are weirder than others. That's should help you, cause fast pressing was what was much harder.

n the story, what can I say. Both 1&2 had a so so story. As a non martial arts movie they'd plain stink. Think of them as games, don't expect this grand story. Yu Suzuki is not even a writer. So many book series blow this out of water it's not funny. I just want the story to get to a point where you do fight Lan Di. It was the damn point in 1&2, it was in 3. He keeps playing with people having delusions of grandeur. Yet the games are actually lot's of fun, all 3. Once you spend enough time on S3 combat, you'll enjoy it. Yes, personally I thought 200 shops selling BS toys to clog up the inventory VS having the same voice actors record a bit more of the story was plain stupid. Those toys for move scrolls were a good idea, if you can win most needed. First time I did play lucky hit to win. I hated it in S2.

Either you like Shenmue formula, or you don't. At times it feels stupid to go talk to 100 people for a junky small quest part. But the fights and QTEs are rewarding after. I do think the 4th should be final, and whatever the best ideas he had, he should do it there.

 

[That Guy.]

I'm worried about the fact that this will have to be on nextgen consoles which would mean they might have to start all over again with a new engine unless I'm wrong or they make the base game a high end PC version that can be ported to them, but I'm not sure how Unreal 4 will play into those consoles if ever.

 

[SMDzero]

Even though Shenmue 2's plot really didn't progress much either until the end (I was always a bit frustrated the save Yuanda Zhu quest became the entire game)

THIS.

A lot of people forget that 90% of Shenmue 2 is spent looking for Yuanda Zhu.... the game could be subtitled 'the search for Yuanda Zhu"

However, once we DO finally do rescue Zhu we strap ourselves in for a TON of story. In very short order, we learn who Lan Di is, why he killed Ryo's father, the purpose of the mirrors, we actually meet Ling Shenhua and get to know her as a person... and finally we learn what Shenmue actually refers to!

 

[Revan]

THIS.

A lot of people forget that 90% of Shenmue 2 is spent looking for Yuanda Zhu.... the game could be subtitled 'the search for Yuanda Zhu"

However, once we DO finally do rescue Zhu we strap ourselves in for a TON of story. In very short order, we learn who Lan Di is, why he killed Ryo's father, the purpose of the mirrors, we actually meet Ling Shenhua and get to know her as a person... and finally we learn what Shenmue actually refers to!

Now that we've done a similar thing searching for Mr Yuan and beating up random thugs along the way in Shenmue 3, I'd like for Shenmue 4 to basically be akin to the end of Disc 3- Disc 4 in its story coverage.

It can still have its FREE-style exploration, but the story should now be less about Ryo training to defeat random thugs and more about him becoming strong enough to defeat the Chi You Men while discovering the truth about the mirrors, the Emperor's treasure, the prophecy, Shenhua's powers and what happened to Zhao Sunming.