Sales of Shenmue III: Where are we now?

GhostTrick said:
If you're not able to read your own article I dont know what to tell you. But here's a little easy one for you:
Sony is listing numbers for gross software, which includes litterally EVERY software sold on PlayStation 4. You'd be right to say that if, indeed, every games available on PlayStation store had a physical release. The problem is the following: It's not the case. Basically, those numbers includes every software sold, including digital only titles, which heavily skew those numbers toward a higher digital rate.

Learn to read your own shit before calling out my reading skills or my grammar (yeah, I'm not a native english speaker, douchebag).

And no, it's EVERY software published on PS4, not "Sony published software". Unless you truly believe Sony sold 250 millions games in a year. But yeah, to know that would actually require to read your own stuff.
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I actually read the Sony financial account originally, but posted that article as I know some people have trouble reading and figured they wouldn’t want to trawl through pages and pages of numbers.

The data is based on sales of 42.9m for the quarter (physical and digital combined). Spider-Man sold 3.3m in its first 3 days. God of war sold 3.1m in its first 3 days. I think both have broken 20m now. If you look at the library of games published by Sony (The uncharted series, The last of us, The last guardian, Horizon Zero Dawn, Detroit become human, Ratchet and Clank, etc), they have massive selling potential.

It also wouldn’t make much sense to compare digital sales of all software to physical sales of only their own games (unless you think they included sales of all physical games on PS4 from other publishers?) and were they to have done so, you’d expect the figure to be 99.9% digital vs 0.1% physical as they’d be comparing digital sales of every single full game available on the PS Store to physical sales of only Sony games. As good as Sony games are, there’s no chance that they could even come close to 47% of total sales when up against digital sales of COD, Red Dead Redemption 2, FIFA, etc.

GhostTrick said:
And also use a bit of logic:
If the game had seen a growth in sales, why did it disappear from charts ?
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See, it’s comments like this that make me think you don’t understand.

When I say ‘growth’, I’m not suggesting that more copies of the game were sold in week two than were sold in week one, but that the total number of copies of the game sold grew each week.

Think of it this way. I’m using rough numbers here for the sake of simplicity, but...

Let’s say Shenmue 3 sells 10,000 copies in its first week in country X. In week 2, sales drop and only 1,000 new copies are sold, but the total number of copies sold has grown by 10%. In week 3, sales drop again to 800 new copies. Our total number of copies has grown by about 7% though and if we compare week 3 total sales to week 1 sales instead of week 2, we actually see growth of 18%. In week 4, the publisher decides to slash the price and they see a surge in sales with 3,000 copies being sold. After that the price goes back up and sales fall again with 700, 500 and 100 copies of the game being sold over the next 3 weeks respectively.

As you can see, the number of new copies being sold each week decreases week on week (apart from the increase caused by a discount to the price), but the total number of copies sold slowly increases. After 7 weeks, total sales are now at 16,100 copies. If we compare this to the 10,000 copies from week one, we’ve seen growth of 61%. In country X, a game normally needs to sell about 8,000 copies to make it into the weekly chart, but as Shenmue 3 only broke this number in opening week, it never reentered the chart (nor did it come close to doing so).

As I pointed out in my last post, 61% growth is pretty low compared to some other games with a lot less going for them.
 
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tomboz said:
The data is based on sales of 42.9m for the quarter (physical and digital combined). Spider-Man sold 3.3m in its first 3 days. God of war sold 3.1m in its first 3 days. I think both have broken 20m now. If you look at the library of games published by Sony (The uncharted series, The last of us, The last guardian, Horizon Zero Dawn, Detroit become human, Ratchet and Clank, etc), they have massive selling potential.
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42.9M for the quarter. 251M for the year. It's every software. Not only Sony published one. Otherwise the volume would be gigantic !
 
Ghost Trick, ok you are not ok with the numbers of the % of digital sells, but take this analysis like an estimation of sells.

I think tomboz underestimate the ration between the sells of Shenmue I&II and Shenmue III (he takes 50% of sales of I&II for the sales of III if I am correct)
 
I wish you're right. Sounds fairly reasonable to me.

I think if it sold over 300k, it made a profit and opened the doors for Shenmue IV
 
I think even if the game is really a "failure" that doesn't mean that we won't get a sequel since all the gameplay mechanics have already been made for Shenmue 3. (And they can be reused for Shenmue 4.)
They can just make some new levels(With few new assets) and release that as Shenmue 4.
So basically they can make a sequel with much less budget.

The only feature that will suffer if 3 is a failure will be the cutscenes of 4.(Since cutscenes are the most expensive things in video games these days.)
 
GhostTrick said:
42.9M for the quarter. 251M for the year. It's every software. Not only Sony published one. Otherwise the volume would be gigantic !
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Looking a bit closer at this, I think you might be right. According to figures released by Sony earlier this month at CES2020, 1.15bn PS4 games have been sold in the seven years or so since the PS4 launched. This equates to about 164m a year or 41.1m a quarter which is more or less in line with the 42.9m quoted in the quarter concerned. It’s not clear if the CES2020 figure concerns retail games or all ‘games’ and the figure in their report is titled ‘full’ games.

The only game that jumps out as being digital only on the best selling games on PSN for 2019 is the Forest, so while I’ve no doubt that the 53% figure will have been inflated by sales of digital only games, I don’t think they are likely to have accounted for a huge swing (I can’t think of too many huge digital only games).

For digital only games to have made the difference between a 30/70 split (30% digital distribution) and a 53/47 split (53% digital distribution), downloads of digital only games would have had to have made up 62% of all full game sales on PSN for that quarter (around 14,095,714 out of the 22,737,000 full games downloaded). I guess it’s possible, but that seems incredibly high to me.
 
mjqjazzbar said:
Hate to be negative, but I feel like they would've said something by now if sales were what they wanted them to be.
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never known you to really mind being negative haha :p

Still too soon. February quarterly at earliest if not May end of year. If was truly bad, the 3 dlc would've been cancelled--presumably. Perhaps not even til Epic deal expires will they brag about any numbers. Really, though, numbers mean nothing to me. We keep seeing Epic advertising for EGS digital sales and DLC/patches released, I'm satisfied and confident we will get a Shen4 announcment by end of the calendar year.
 
mjqjazzbar said:
Hate to be negative, but I feel like they would've said something by now if sales were what they wanted them to be.
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You're negative and luckily wrong. For once, Japanese developers rarely share numbers, second, when a game sells out all CE and SE copies, it does mean something (remember they earn a lot more with this kind of boxes). Third point, from what I know about Deep Silver, their policies and sales expectations, they didn't regret for sure their support of Shenmue III (my opinion).
 
For curiosity, the Sony DD numbers, are really only digital copies, or they include all digital sales like DLC etc.?
I remeber that Capcom for example include also DLC to inflate their digital sales report.
 
Suzaku said:
For curiosity, the Sony DD numbers, are really only digital copies, or they include all digital sales like DLC etc.?
I remeber that Capcom for example include also DLC to inflate their digital sales report.
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They label it as ‘full games’, so I imagine it’s digital copies rather than DLC.
 
Quarterly financials will be out next week on the 19th.

MON, FEB 10, 2020 12:29 CET
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Date: February 19, 2019
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Link to stream: https://tv.streamfabriken.com/embracer-group-q3-2019

Assuming reports'll pop up here: https://embracer.com/investors/reports-presentations/
 
Estimate revisions due to FF VII, Shenmue III & Biomutant
We lower our revenue estimate for Deep Silver from SEK 625m to SEK 550m in Q3’19/20e, mainly due to Shenmue III performing below our expectations. Furthermore, as no official release date has been announced for Biomutant, we have pencilled in a release in the next financial year instead of Q4’19/20e
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Shenmue III
Shenmue III was released on 19 November 2019 on PlayStation 4 and the Epic Games Store. The game gathered mixed reviews amongst critics, with an averageMetacritic score of 69 on PC and 68 on PlayStation 4. However, it’s our view that actual fans of the series were very pleased with the game.
In terms of sales, we’re currently not able to track sales generated on the EpicGames Store, however we note that Shenmue III did claim a spot on the Top 20 Sellers list for several weeks. Additionally, Embracer will have received a fee for making the game exclusive to the Epic Games Store. In terms of sales on the PlayStation 4, estimates seem to suggest that the game has gatheredapproximately 50k players in Q3’19/20e4.
Ultimately, Shenmue III sales seem to have performed below our estimates, which is the reason for us lowering our revenue estimates for the Deep Silver segment.
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Not sure where they are pulling their data from. The 50K almost suggests Gamstat, but I guess we'll see in a week.
 
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I think they are just making a forecast based on data we have already seen, but I am not 100% sure where they get their info from. Just sharing a finding from my daily Googling.
 
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