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For those who care about sales in Japan, according to Tsutaya, one of the most common places to buy games and hardware in Japan, the game ranks #6 in last week's sales (11/18 - 11/25), which is lower than Luigi's Mansion 3.
The latter sold 29,718 copies two weeks ago according to Famitsu:
So I guess Shenmue 3 sold approximately 20k copies at best in Japan in the first week.
By the way, Shenmue 1 &2 sold 37,529 copies in the first week according to Media Create.
Edit: Sorry I made a huge typo. It sold
20k copies
at best in Japan in its debut week, not
200k, and we still don't know the accurate figure. But since Call of Duty Modern Warfare ranked #6 two weeks ago which only sold 9,000 copies, the worst situation would be that the game sold less than 10,000 copies in Japan.