Hi guys !
I want to share my thought about the sale of Shenmue 3.
First thing I did was to look how many copy of Shenmue I&II was sold
From what I found on vgchartz and steamspy, Shenmue I&II was sold about 350k and 400k
VGChartz - extensive game chart coverage, including sales data, news, reviews, forums, & game database for PS5, Xbox Series, Nintendo Switch & PC
www.vgchartz.com
But I am not sure the number of vgchartz are accurate.
When I have looked the sales of Vampyr on this site, I have found about 650k, but we know the game sold more than 1 million sales (the editor communicate about that).
So I think we can estimate the sale of Shenmue I&II about 600k
I think shenmue 3 can sale about the same of Shenmue I&II (maybe little more or little less with the new comer and some guys who bought Shenmue i&II but won't buy Shenmue 3)
For now we know Shenmue 3 sale about 20k in japan (famitsu) physical copy only
From this news :
http://www.jeuxvideo.com/news/1154041/japon-les-meilleures-ventes-d-octobre-2019.htm
We can see almost 33% of the sale are digital in japan, so lets assume Shenmue 3 sold 30k in japan the fisrt week.
By the way, lot of people say (quite rightly) the sales of Shenmue 3 are disapointed, but just to compare, Astral Chain sold 32k for his first week in japan, and i assume it has a much more bigger budget than Shenmue 3 (and a bigger makerting campaign).
Famitsu has published its estimated physical game software and hardware sales data for Japan for the week of August 26, 2019 to September 1, 2019.
gematsu.com
If we add the sale of kickstarter, we are at 110k sales, which is not bad
We all know most of the sale will be in USA and EU.
Vampyr is a AA game like Shenmue 3 and I think it has more or less the same budget than Shenmue 3.
After the first month they sold 450k copy of Vampyr, and the game needed to sold 500k to make a profit
After one month on the market, Dontnod has revealed its happiness with Vampyr sales numbers. The game is currently available on PC, PS4, and Xbox One.
www.playstationlifestyle.net
In conclusion I think Shenmue 3 can sold about 600k if Vampy could sold more than 1 million.
And don't forget Shenmue 3 was a kickstarter so if with all the publihsers (deep silver shibuya ect ...) and the kickstarter the game has a budget of production of 10 millions, 5 millions was "free" because it came from kickstarter (5 millions instead of 7 millions because of the fees of kickstarter and the production on goodies).
An other good point for Shenmue 3, it is the 11th most discussed PS4 game of 2019, it is better than Ghost recon Breakpoint (12th) and it was released after
It is better than Control, Metro Exodus, Medievil, Plague tale innocence or Judgement :)
See how well critics are rating the Best PlayStation 4 Video Games
www.metacritic.com