Shenmue 3 Sales

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Riku Rose said:
YsNet could release official numbers that the game sold badly and certain individuals would claim it was a mistranslation.
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This simply isn't true, the source you gave is just a joke for reasons already listed. People want something definitive, which means they would take your hypothetical over fucking "gamstat" and relative rankings. Frankly at this point, I would welcome YsNet coming out and confirming it sold like shit, because at least that would put to rest all this speculative hand-wringing.
 
Dietsoap said:
This simply isn't true, the source you gave is just a joke for reasons already listed. People want something definitive, which means they would take your hypothetical over fucking "gamstat" and relative rankings. Frankly at this point, I would welcome YsNet coming out and confirming it sold like shit, because at least that would put to rest all this speculative hand-wringing.
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The aggressiveness coming from your post kind of suggests otherwise to be fair.
 
Sales shmales. Game is selling poorly. There's a thousand articles about it. Maybe if we all rally together and buy 1000 copies each well raise the metacritic score.

You frontin with me?maxresdefault.jpg
 
SCQ said:
That seems like a lot of guesswork based on personal bias tbh.
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In what way does it sound like guess work? You can go and check the thread yourself. As it included people from the UK, the US and Europe it seems fair to assume that if the people that posted from those regions received their copies on time/early then the majority of backers from those countries that didn’t post received their copies in a timely manner too. Sure there might be a bit of variance, but 5-6 days? I highly doubt that.

An old dojo poll suggested that around 80% of backers opted for the PS4 version and that was before the EGS scandal which probably lead to many people changing their survey results.

Even if it was a 50-50 split, that’s 35,000 PS4 backer copies. Even if 30% of those arrived late, that’s 24,500 PS4 backer copies received on time or early. This is before taking into account the 18,000 copies sold in Japan in the opening week, physical copies sold across the rest of the world and digital sales of the PS4 version.

In reality, there were probably 56,000+ PS4 backer copies with around 50,000 arriving on time or early. We don’t have physical sales figures for the rest of the world outside of Japan nor do we have any digital sales figures whatsoever, but I’d bet my life that they were at the very least higher than 50,000 (including Japan).

Even with the worst case scenario figures I fail to see how even the most pessimistic amongst us could think that Game Stat’s estimate is anywhere near accurate.
 
tomboz said:
In what way does it sound like guess work? You can go and check the thread yourself.
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I did. Nothing there suggests it's the overwhelming majority. Actually not that many got it on release.

You are betting your life on something you have no real proof though. What you personally think doesn't really disprove gamestats in any way. You are simply giving an opinion based on nothing tangible.
 
SCQ said:
I did. Nothing there suggests it's the overwhelming majority. Actually not that many got it on release.

You are betting your life on something you have no real proof though. What you personally think doesn't really disprove gamestats in any way. You are simply giving an opinion based on nothing tangible.
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You clearly didn’t, as if you had, you’d have noticed that the last 2 posts were posted by myself and another UK born backer living in Japan who received our copies on the 25th (owing to our copies shipping from the US as we requested PAL copies).

That there were no other posts after the 24th (the cut off for the game stat figures) very much suggests that there weren’t many people who hadn’t gotten their copies by then.

I’m betting my life on common sense. Game Stat themselves admit that the accuracy of their stats suffers with lower numbers as is the case with any aggregate system.

They’ve taken a small sample and applied the findings to the overall population. I could do the same thing and say that as 1 in every 7,000 people here in Japan purchased a physical copy here then 1 in every 7,000 people on the planet must have. Using this logic, there were 1,100,000 copies of the physical PS4 version sold in the opening week. Fantastic. S4 confirmed.

Of course this is a ridiculous way of looking at it, but no more so than game stat. It’s literally the exact same methodology. That the figures we have blatantly contradict those that the posted further goes to show that this kind of calculation is useless for estimating small numbers.
 
Shenhuan
tomboz said:
You clearly didn’t, as if you had, you’d have noticed that the last 2 posts were posted by myself and another UK born backer living in Japan who received our copies on the 25th (owing to our copies shipping from the US as we requested PAL copies).

That there were no other posts after the 24th (the cut off for the game stat figures) very much suggests that there weren’t many people who hadn’t gotten their copies by then.

I’m betting my life on common sense. Game Stat themselves admit that the accuracy of their stats suffers with lower numbers as is the case with any aggregate system.

They’ve taken a small sample and applied the findings to the overall population. I could do the same thing and say that as 1 in every 7,000 people here in Japan purchased a physical copy here then 1 in every 7,000 people on the planet must have. Using this logic, there were 1,100,000 copies of the physical PS4 version sold in the opening week. Fantastic. S4 confirmed.

Of course this is a ridiculous way of looking at it, but no more so than game stat. It’s literally the exact same methodology. That the figures we have blatantly contradict those that the posted further goes to show that this kind of calculation is useless for estimating small numbers.
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Because there are no posts 6 days after release means that most people got it on release or close to release? Okey. You literally have no proof of anything you are saying, it's just guesswork to confirm your personal bias. If anything gamestats suggests that most people got it or at least played it 5 days after release. That's the most proof of anything we have actually.
 
SCQ said:
It's hard to go anywhere when you just make up numbers tbh.
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Dietsoap said:
Do you have proof that they don't? Look, we already have hard but shitty numbers from Famitsu for JP, we don't need to go reaching with these esoteric meme sites for our daily dose of doom-porn.
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Well their methodology seems to be solid. Not perfect but good enough to give a general idea. Your post sounds like you just don't like us discussing shenmue 3 having poor sales to be honest.
 
SCQ said:
Well their methodology seems to be solid. Not perfect but good enough to give a general idea. Your post sounds like you just don't like us discussing shenmue 3 having poor sales to be honest.
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I'm not expecting the sales to be great so don't assume please. I'm just saying the site is a joke, you can make the plausible assumption that the sales suck based on the figures we already have from JP, and even relative rankings from UK are more substantive than this. Satisfied?
 
SCQ said:
Well their methodology seems to be solid. Not perfect but good enough to give a general idea. Your post sounds like you just don't like us discussing shenmue 3 having poor sales to be honest.
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But it literally isn’t. They admit this themselves and I demonstrated how their methodology is flawed by using the exact same methodology with a different sample (known to be accurate) to produce an equally ridiculous result.

I fail to see how being able to see past flawed methodology and using common sense makes me biased. I’m not suggesting that the game has sold well, but pointing out that Game Stat’s Figure is quite clearly wrong (and by some margin). A blind person could see that...
 
tomboz said:
But it literally isn’t. They admit this themselves and I demonstrated how their methodology is flawed by using the exact same methodology with a different sample (known to be accurate) to produce an equally ridiculous result.

I fail to see how being able to see past flawed methodology and using common sense makes me biased. I’m not suggesting that the game has sold well, but pointing out that Game Stat’s Figure is quite clearly wrong (and by some margin). A blind person could see that...
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That's not true though. All the reasons you gave simply have no solid ground to stand on.
Dietsoap said:
I'm not expecting the sales to be great so don't assume please. I'm just saying the site is a joke, you can make the plausible assumption that the sales suck based on the figures we already have from JP, and even relative rankings from UK are more substantive than this. Satisfied?
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You need to relax. Just because you don't like something doesn't mean you need to get angry and call it a joke. That just discourages any substantial discussion on the topic.
 
What if Cedric already has the stats and it's good enuf to greenlit S4 but is amusing himself with our doom and gloom bickering? We should be hounding(nicely ofc) him so we can get a better idea of how to move forward with our support/gameplan. Srsly, for a game that is literally living/dying by its fanbase's support holding us at arms lengths is not doing Shenmue any favors.
 
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