Shenmue 3 Sales

Status
Not open for further replies.
Sales figures should also consider this that the most hardcore Shenmue fans participated in the Kickstarter. So those fans never bought a copy from a retailer.(And you know, hardcore fans are the ones that buy the game on the first week.)
 
And isn’t the 18k figure physical only? So we’re talking probably 18k+ more for digital sales in Japan? So we take the 70k Kickstarter sales and add only the Japanese sales and were at 110k(ish) before counting any other markets.

I think we’ll be fine for Shenmue 4. Shenmue 5 is what has me worried but I won’t fret too much over that at this point because I think Shenmue 4 should be a much bigger and better game than 3.
 
Digital adoption for titles has grown exponentially over the last couple of years. In the UK, digital has grown to over 80% adoption for many AAA titles out there, such as Borderlands 3. Why do you think GameStop is abandoning ship overseas?

Even in worst case, you can expect 50% of the physical sales to be reflected in digital.
 
xatruio said:
so, conservative estimate--25% of 18k--total 22.5k? Not too shabby in Japan.
Click to expand...

Pretty conservative. I would say around 25k as a good estimate.

Even if the game sells ~100k-150k worldwide at best, that's roughly $6-9 million. The budget was $12 million, of which $7 million was crowdfunded.

I think the game will turn a profit and get a sequel greenlit.

People are way too cynical here. If Darksiders can get a lowball sequel greenlit, as well as Kingdom Come, so can Shenmue.
 
$6,3 million come from kickstarter.
We don't know how much come from other investors like Shibuya and Deep Silver, but I imagine it would be no more than 2 million each.

If this is the case, to profits Deep SIlver and Sibuya should recover only their investment, not the total budget of the project.
 
I agree it doesn’t need to sell a ton to help investors earn back their investment, but I wonder what that would mean for Shenmue 4. Would these investors be willing to come up with an equal amount to produce 4? Are we really sure a group of investors who invested a pretty small amount in Shenmue 3—$4-5 million—would suddenly invest $4-5 million again if their first investment did little to nothing for them? Would Ys Net still want additional funding now that they have even less money to make Shenmue 4 than they did to make Shenmue 3? Maybe they allotted an amount of money from the initial $12 million to go towards the sequel.

I also think the reality that fewer people will be interested in Shenmue 4 than were interested in Shenmue 3 also needs to be confronted. That’s not going to help when sales for 3 were potentially not great. Unless 4 is received much differently than 3, which seems unlikely given they'll be working with a similar budget and constraints, then what happens when they try to get funding for a fifth and final game? There's still a ton of uncertainty...

Anyway, I think it’s way, way too early and fuzzy to make any assumptions... For all we know Shenmue IV is coming out in six months.
 
Last edited:
Not sure I’d take AK’s comments too seriously. I’ve been living here for nearly three years and so was present for the launch of both S1/2HD and S3 and S3 definitely had more of a marketing push. I don’t know where he was looking, but it was clearly in all of the wrong places. I do agree that 20,000 physical units in the first two weeks is decent though given the gaming landscape over here.


Growth for the 23rd:
PSN Profiles: 1142->1157 (+1.3%).
True Trophies: 1109->1115 (+0.5%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2213->2245 (+1.4%)
Exophase: 1233->1235 (+0.2%).
 
How did Adam get so tight with the Shenmue folks and Sega? His channel and other social media, etc. don't seem particularly popular, but it seems like he's always being flown around like he's a celebrity.
 
Suzaku said:
$6,3 million come from kickstarter.
We don't know how much come from other investors like Shibuya and Deep Silver, but I imagine it would be no more than 2 million each.

If this is the case, to profits Deep SIlver and Sibuya should recover only their investment, not the total budget of the project.
Click to expand...

Don't forget/discount Slacker Backer. Free extra money to cover KS fees/partial late-development boost/misc.

mjqjazzbar said:
How did Adam get so tight with the Shenmue folks and Sega? His channel and other social media, etc. don't seem particularly popular, but it seems like he's always being flown around like he's a celebrity.
Click to expand...

Feel like it is a bit of good will. He already travels a bit for his career, it seems? Fairly popular and respected (good old fashion networking, too); not the typical cheap shock jock; he's honest if not biggest fan, but doesn't seem clickbait.

Always wondered where he lives, I hear the El in the background of his videos. Never run into him at any of the local game shops, which wouldn't surprise me to be honest...
 
Last edited:
Yeah, I guess I’m assuming the travel is to do with his channel and not whatever it is he does for work. Always good to have someone so enthusiastic and supportive on your team. Beats the cynical bullshit that plagues the Net these days.
 
Got a sale out of me. Two nights ago, yours truly purchased Shenmue III Digital Deluxe Edition. Was on sale for £48.99, but whatever I still paid an extra tenner for a flight jacket and some move. Hopefully the jacket is dope as fuck, and the move is game-breakingly OP.

Seriously though, am storming through Shenmue II as quickly as I can. Got Platinum for the first game, looks like I will for the second. Shenmue III Platinum will have to wait for successive playthroughs. Am taking my sweet time with Shenmue III. I've not seen much, and have read no reviews or first impressions or anything.

Doesn't feel real, to be honest. Shenmue III is installed on my PS4 Pro right now, waiting to be started.

I've got work until 2pm tomorrow, and I'm going for a meal tomorrow night.. all other hours are spent on Shenmue, though. I'm street fighting in Kowloon to impress the Yellow Head scout. Let's hope I can start Shenmue III sometime on Christmas Day. That would be amazingly-apt.

Got at least two days with it. Probably Saturday and Sunday as well. I'm gonna make Shenmue III walk funny. Gonna make it real sore. It's gonna be walking like John Wayne when I'm through with it.

I know the save doesn't carry over from Shenmue II to III, but I bought the HD Remasters of the first two and wanted to refresh myself and jump straight into III once II is done.
 
Growth for the 24th:
PSN Profiles: 1157->1171 (+1.2%).
True Trophies: 1115->1122 (+0.6%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2245->2266 (+0.9%)
Exophase: 1235->1235 (=).

Gamestat now posting figures of 43,000, so as ridiculous as ever.
 
So, any chance they release the Shenmue 3:complete edition on Xbox 1 in 2020 ?

I'm pretty sure that will make the game more successful.(After all Shenmue HD was also released on Xbox 1 and there is a Shenmue playarbase there.)
 
Dg1995 said:
So, any chance they release the Shenmue 3:complete edition on Xbox 1 in 2020 ?

I'm pretty sure that will make the game more successful.(After all Shenmue HD was also released on Xbox 1 and there is a Shenmue playarbase there.)
Click to expand...

I don't know that it'll be a "Complete Edition", but I would imagine their exclusivity for Sony can't be much longer than 6 months. They'd have to launch before Series X to have some success, even with it being BC.
 
Yes... it's gonna be on xbox. Don't ask how I know
w0t.png
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top