Kickstarter Update #102 - PC Gaming Show Update: New Trailer & Epic Games Store Exclusive For PC Version! Part 2

[Shadow2222]

I know far enough about how these Epic Store deals articulate. As I said, they're paying copies in advance. What does it mean ? It's the same as if X number of people bought the game. Let's say they paid 100k copies, that'd amount for 5 million dollars. But here's the tricky part: They've bought copies in advance. Which means Deep Silver is getting the money from those sales and YsNet a part of that money. Another additionnal thing to consider: Deep Silver and YsNet aren't getting a single cent from sales Epic already bought. Which means, all copies sold is basically Epic recouping their investment.

But if you want to imagine that Epic injected 20 millions of dollars and gave that to YsNet just for a year of exclusivity, whatever floats your boat.

What about Phoenix Point, which was in a similar situation (except it was on Fig, so that actually even means they had to pass on some of that Epic money to the "investor" backers)? I don't expect the same percentage, because it was a much lower cost game, but they literally received 100% of their development cost back and then another 91% on top of that to have made a profit before ever releasing the game. Epic is clearly injecting huge sums of money to get these deals and basically crossing their fingers that it works long term to bring in people and get them using their store. I'm not saying it is smart, as it could very well backfire on them, but it isn't unprecedented based on these prior deals.

Clearly it worked out for Metro Exodus for Deep Silver to turn around and do it again.

EDIT: Just some interesting information calculated on Resetera by a user with the official data provided by the dev of Phoenix Point via emails to their Fig backers.

Phoenix Point received $500k from investors and $766k from the rest of the backers for a rough total of $1.2 million.
To have reached that 191%, that means that Epic paid roughly $2.5 million.

The link, if you are interested in understanding the math behind it:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/ph...te-can-we-calculate-the-epic-moneyhat.112525/

It includes a post from a supposed insider that indicates that it may be even a higher amount: " You are severely underestimating how much they are paying for these deals"

 

[GhostTrick]

You know as much as I do wich is nothing.
And unless they tell us, we may never do.
I was speculating and I said it. They could give as much as 200k or 200M. We just don't know.

In fact, I actually think I know more than you do, because I've been looking closely to the whole thing before it was announced. No offense here, but I think maybe that's something you may not have cared about before. Epic pretty much documented about the way exclusivity works (you can look at their Game Developper Conference keynote).
They are indeed buying copies in advance. For exemple, if they buy 100 000 copies, they pay them upfront to the publisher. But the publisher isn't seeing the money from the 100 000 first sales on EGS, because those money were already bought. They'll see additionnal money at the 100 001 copy sold. And we also know the usual range which they pay: Between 50k to 100k copies. In the case of Shenmue III, that'd be around 5 million dollars, which is within the realm of that kind of deal and fit in the kind of delay it got (3 months). Out of these 5 millions, remember that Deep Silver is getting some. That Shibuya Production is seeing some. Then YsNet.

I'm just saying, yes, it's nice that they got more money. But let's not overestimate that because I'm noticing a narrative that I already hate; that some of you are pushing the narrative that Epic is some sort of gaming messiah and that we, backers, are whining over nothing for not getting what we paid for, when their investment, while appreciated, isn't some mind boggling number either (Shenmue IV isn't funded and Deep Silver is seeking to recoup their investment first).

What about Phoenix Point, which was in a similar situation (except it was on Fig, so that actually even means they had to pass on some of that Epic money to the "investor" backers)? I don't expect the same percentage, because it was a much lower cost game, but they literally received 100% of their development cost back and then another 91% on top of that to have made a profit before ever releasing the game. Epic is clearly injecting huge sums of money to get these deals and basically crossing their fingers that it works long term to bring in people and get them using their store. I'm not saying it is smart, as it could very well backfire on them, but it isn't unprecedented based on these prior deals.

Clearly it worked out for Metro Exodus for Deep Silver to turn around and do it again.

Which amounts to 75 000 copies at 30 dollars. That totally adds up with what I said.
(And no it didn't work out well for Metro Exodus, considering THQ Nordic is lips tight around its sales. It's true that Epic Store had the highest "revenue per unit". But that includes the number of copies Epic bought themselves already. And it's for digital only.. THQ Nordic also said the vast majority of the sales for Metro Exodus were on consoles. While Metro used to be a serie where sales came mostly from PC. Which was on track to be the case again before the removed the game from sales on Steam).

 

[mjqjazzbar]

Epic isn't throwing money at Shenmue 4 when they have no idea how Shenmue 3 will sell. Business isn't charity and Ys Net needs to earn their next round of money.

 

[ValoniMahoni]

The thought of epic's funds usable for the development of shenmue 4 is kinda delusional

 

[Shadow2222]

@GhostTrick I'm not disputing that Metro potentially didn't sell well on the EGS in terms of units, but the money they received from Epic seems to be why they are happy to continuously make these deals. Just as Epic isn't handing out free money with no hope of return (whether it be in new sales or users), Deep Silver/THQ Nordic isn't signing these contracts just to have bad PR and have their games flop.

Also, I know you guys aren't responding to me specifically about funding Shenmue IV, but to address that, clearly they haven't handed any money over to Deep Silver/YsNet and said "here is money to fund SIV." However, if they have essentially "repaid" the development costs of SIII, including the number of sales that came from the backers, and Deep Silver shares the wealth with YsNet, then every dollar made from a sale on the EGS is pure profit. This is all conjecture, of course, but unlike Metro, it potentially doesn't have to sell a certain amount of units to then start making money.

Sorry to keep bringing up Phoenix Point, but its the closest and most detailed example we have. Epic is buying existing sales (and potentially possible sales) instead of just possible sales, like Metro. The developers said on Discord that even if every single backer asked for a refund, they'd still be in the black (profitable, in other words). Obviously, the biggest roadblock to YsNet's success here is that Phoenix Point, to my knowledge, had no publisher, while here Deep Silver will collect all of the cash and decide what portion, if any, gets passed on.

 

[GhostTrick]

@GhostTrick I'm not disputing that Metro potentially didn't sell well on the EGS in terms of units, but the money they received from Epic seems to be why they are happy to continuously make these deals. Just as Epic isn't handing out free money with no hope of return (whether it be in new sales or users), Deep Silver/THQ Nordic isn't signing these contracts just to have bad PR and have their games flop.

Also, I know you guys aren't responding to me specifically about funding Shenmue IV, but to address that, clearly they haven't handed any money over to Deep Silver/YsNet and said "here is money to fund SIV." However, if they have essentially "repaid" the development costs of SIII, including the number of sales that came from the backers, and Deep Silver shares the wealth with YsNet, then every dollar made from a sale on the EGS is pure profit. This is all conjecture, of course, but unlike Metro, it potentially doesn't have to sell a certain amount of units to then start making money.

Sorry to keep bringing up Phoenix Point, but its the closest and most detailed example we have. Epic is buying existing sales (and potentially possible sales) instead of just possible sales, like Metro. The developers said on Discord that even if every single backer asked for a refund, they'd still be in the black (profitable, in other words). Obviously, the biggest roadblock to YsNet's success here is that Phoenix Point, to my knowledge, had no publisher, while here Deep Silver will collect all of the cash and decide what portion, if any, gets passed on.

Deep Silver and also Shibuya Production. And no, if it was as high as "repaying the developpement cost of Shenmue III", we wouldn't get a 3 month delay. Or we would already have a Shenmue IV going on. As for Phoenix Point, they were profitable for a reason: Epic bought a number of copies in advance. Likely around 75 000 copies. If for Shenmue III, 100 000 copies were bought in advance, that'd be 5 million dollars. It doesn't cover the developpement of the game at all. What it does first and foremost is making Shenmue III a safer investment for Deep Silver.

 

[Spaghetti]

@GhostTrick, did you get banned on ERA?

 

[xatruio]

Then as a safer investment for Shibuya and Deep Silver (Cedric might be implicit more than I intitally wanted to believe because he's also done exclusive EGS deals like DS and also is producing the PC port, yeah?), the future sequels hold a smaller risk and safer, shorter investment for inherently cheaper cost using the same engine they've built with UE4 these last 4+ years.

 

[GhostTrick]

@GhostTrick, did you get banned on ERA?

Yup. Dont know for how long though. Hence why I cant call bullshit out in these Shenmue threads. I can already read those dumb "hey I prefer Yakuza" posts.

Then as a safer investment for Shibuya and Deep Silver (Cedric might be implicit more than I intitally wanted to believe because he's also done exclusive EGS deals like DS and also is producing the PC port, yeah?), the future sequels hold a smaller risk and safer, shorter investment for inherently cheaper cost using the same engine they've built with UE4 these last 4+ years.

There's just a problematic here: If that deal hurts the sales, what will happen ? The publisher will be like this: "Okay, it's a good thing we made our investment back because the game isn't selling ! No need to take a risk !".

 

[Kintor]

There's just a problematic here: If that deal hurts the sales, what will happen ? The publisher will be like this: "Okay, it's a good thing we made our investment back because the game isn't selling ! No need to take a risk !".

This is probably a good moment to talk about general sales expectations for Shenmue 3. It would be good if Shenmue 3 burns up the charts, being the number one game upon release and staying in the top ten for weeks afterwards. Yet I've never considered that to be a realistic scenario, especially in the lead-up to Christmas. I think that Shenmue 3 will do best as a slow burn, making steady sales over the first 18 months, that will be the true measure of Shenmue 3's success.

In this respect, is the Epic deal going to hurt sales over the long term? I think that's hard to say at this point. Many hardcore Steam users have a vested interest in seeing Epic's platform fail but boycotts will only get them so far. Especially when Epic is being so aggressive in expanding their userbase by any means necessary. It's not as if all this PC drama has been enough to slow down Fortnite, the game that made Epic a multi-billion dollar juggernaut in the first place. The damage caused to Shenmue 3 can only ever be short-term because I very much doubt we'll still see the same level of anger even 6 months from now.

 

[GhostTrick]

This is probably a good moment to talk about general sales expectations for Shenmue 3. It would be good if Shenmue 3 burns up the charts, being the number one game upon release and staying in the top ten for weeks afterwards. Yet I've never considered that to be a realistic scenario, especially in the lead-up to Christmas. I think that Shenmue 3 will do best as a slow burn, making steady sales over the first 18 months, that will be the true measure of Shenmue 3's success.

In this respect, is the Epic deal going to hurt sales over the long term? I think that's hard to say at this point. Many hardcore Steam users have a vested interest in seeing Epic's platform fail but boycotts will only get them so far. Especially when Epic is being so aggressive in expanding their userbase by any means necessary. It's not as if all this PC drama has been enough to slow down Fortnite, the game that made Epic a multi-billion dollar juggernaut in the first place. The damage caused to Shenmue 3 can only ever be short-term because I very much doubt we'll still see the same level of anger even 6 months from now.

As I said: Epic is running a megasale where they're litterally bleeding money. They're basically subsidizing 10 dollars on each purchase over 15 dollars, unlimited number so that every game can be discounted even if the dev doesnt. They're losing money on every game they're selling right now. They announced 1 free game every week instead of every 2 weeks. Because it's not doing well at all. Is Shenmue 3 going to suffer short/mid term ? Yes on PC. But after the exclusivity period, and considering there's a season pass to push interest in the long run, I think they still have a shot.

The problem here is the credibility of every party involved here. This is why they need to fix the backer situation.

 

[Amir]

Yup. Dont know for how long though.

Don't worry, you're in good company



I hadn't noticed the staff post at the time, then noticed my error afterwards, but still got banned anyway

 

[Shadow2222]

Don't worry, you're in good company

View attachment 3121

I hadn't noticed the staff post at the time, then noticed my error afterwards, but still got banned anyway

Yep, same lol.

 

[Kintor]

As I said: Epic is running a megasale where they're litterally bleeding money. They're basically subsidizing 10 dollars on each purchase over 15 dollars, unlimited number so that every game can be discounted even if the dev doesnt. They're losing money on every game they're selling right now. They announced 1 free game every week instead of every 2 weeks. Because it's not doing well at all. Is Shenmue 3 going to suffer short/mid term ? Yes on PC. But after the exclusivity period, and considering there's a season pass to push interest in the long run, I think they still have a shot.

The problem here is the credibility of every party involved here. This is why they need to fix the backer situation.

I think you underestimate Epic's resources. The way I see, right now they don't even care if the Epic store makes money when Fortnite alone is keeping them richer then many nation states. The store itself is part of a long-term strategy, for a day when Fortnite is no longer popular. They're not holding this 1 week free game sale because they're doing badly, they're holding the sale because they can as away to (again) aggressively expand their userbase. In this respect is Shenmue 3 on the epic store a a calculated risk? Sure, but I think the metrics are more favourable then you're suggesting here.

The issue of the steam keys owed to backers is a seperate matter to the sales. Using the fight between Epic and Steam to condemn the potential success of Shenmue seems unwarranted at this point.

 

[GhostTrick]

I think you underestimate Epic's resources. The way I see, right now they don't even care if the Epic store makes money when Fortnite alone is keeping them richer then many nation states. The store itself is part of a long-term strategy, for a day when Fortnite is no longer popular. They're not holding this 1 week free game sale because they're doing badly, they're holding the sale because they can as away to (again) aggressively expand their userbase. In this respect is Shenmue 3 on the epic store a a calculated risk? Sure, but I think the metrics are more favourable then you're suggesting here.

The issue of the steam keys owed to backers is a seperate matter to the sales. Using the fight between Epic and Steam to condemn the potential success of Shenmue seems unwarranted at this point.

It's a separate matter to the sales indeed. But not to the shitstorm it raises and the possible impact on the sales. Nor on any possible sequel funding.

 

[Kintor]

It's a separate matter to the sales indeed. But not to the shitstorm it raises and the possible impact on the sales. Nor on any possible sequel funding.

A 'shitstorm' isn't a force of nature, it's made by people and drive by their anger. If this bad press is going to hurt sales then you must be ready to assume some responsibility for bringing events to this conclusion. It's just a question of whether your personal desire for compensation or sense of revenge against Epic outweighs any commitment to seeing Shenmue 3 a success.

 

[GhostTrick]

A 'shitstorm' isn't a force of nature, it's made by people and drive by their anger. If this bad press is going to hurt sales then you must be ready to assume some responsibility for bringing events to this conclusion. It's just a question of whether your personal desire for compensation or sense of revenge against Epic outweighs any commitment to seeing Shenmue 3 a success.

"Bad press". That's the thing here. It's not only about backers but potential customers. Keep in mind, the game isn't going to be sold to Shenmue fans only. Think of the random buyer or internet user that may here about it and think of it as "scummy". That's a lost sale. Believe it or not, a lot of games suffered from bad PR because they sounded "fishy" to the average person.

 

[Fain]

You know, I had to buy my new car from a dodgy dealership near my house and I hated dealing with the people there (true story). They tried to screw me over a few times, but I sucked it up because they had the car I wanted and the price was right.

I spent way more money on my car than anyone here has spent on Shenmue III, and I had to pay that money directly into that dealerships pocket -- something we don't have to do with Epic -- but guess what? It was worth it, because I got the car I wanted.

If I can do that for a car, why the hell can't people do something far more trivial for a fucking video game? It blows my goddamn mind.

If you bought the car from that dealer than you supported their dodgy business practices and enabled them to continue doing them. You were looking out for yourself and the item you wanted.

I can see why you wouldn’t care about the EGS deal.

For me, no game or games would allow me to put my values aside and support what EGS is doing. None. No game is worth it, including Shenmue.

 

[Kintor]

"Bad press". That's the thing here. It's not only about backers but potential customers. Keep in mind, the game isn't going to be sold to Shenmue fans only. Think of the random buyer or internet user that may here about it and think of it as "scummy". That's a lost sale. Believe it or not, a lot of games suffered from bad PR because they sounded "fishy" to the average person.

The truth is that most people don't care where they buy their games from. So long as the product they purchased works they don't think too much about the services that provided it. If the opposite was true both Epic and Steam would be out of business and GOG would be the biggest platform. A PC version of Shenmue 3 is being made as promised, we're just quibbling about how the game should be distributed.

Moving to the Epic store alone will never be enough to condemn Shenmue. The real damage comes from a concerted campaign to undermine Shenmue 3, as part of this whole pissing match between Epic and Steam about who's DRM has the best moral argument. Those who called Kickstarter a scam in 2015 aren't going to be moved by recent events one way or the other.

 

[mjqjazzbar]

If you bought the car from that dealer than you supported their dodgy business practices and enabled them to continue doing them. You were looking out for yourself and the item you wanted.

I can see why you wouldn’t care about the EGS deal.

For me, no game or games would allow me to put my values aside and support what EGS is doing. None. No game is worth it, including Shenmue.

Did you join the forum to tell everyone you don’t want to buy Shenmue 3? Seems kind of weird tbh.