Straight up I don't think SEGA have a direct strategy for Shenmue at all and is shows in the merch for the anime in the west as a key example. Also factor in Crucnhyroll and it gets quite convoluted.
Since I interviewed Jason it has been confirmed that AdultSwim is safe from any immediate cuts following the merger. So that in itself is a step in the right direction and we know Jason wants to do that second season for sure. It might be a case of waiting for an opportune moment to have those discussions and see what can be done. The numbers are in its favour following on from the original airing which is good and AdultSwim were pleased so that carries some weight. Also factor in that even if it were greenlit right now I doubt we'd see anything about it for 2-3 years while they get the thing made and ready so that would put us into 2024/2025 easily.
As for Shenmue 4: 110's direct teasing has stopped but they keep liking the odd Shenmue post so whether that's them keeping things going slightly or not who knows. I am also a believer that whatever is/was/or may be going on YSNET would have told them to stop teasing, he didn't seem too impressed about it in the July Gamerant interview. Again though even if they announced anything right now I wouldn't expect it out for a minimum 18 months unless they have been quietly working on the game and are going to announce it 6-9 months from release and I don't think that's the case currently. They would also need to release a polished, trailer with impact whatever they do.
I think
@ShenSun said it earlier. The End of Year interviews will be very interesting from Yu Suzuki. However we keep the faith, keep making noise and also looking at new ways to draw people into the series.