Shenmue 3 Sales

Status
Not open for further replies.
Yeah, Tomboz has been on this very well, thus if any layman has a thought or opinion on the overall sales, I trust him more than others.

If it is at 200,000, I think that can be considered an overall success and it DEFINITELY bodes well for the future.

We'll see, as the numbers don't mean anything unless they come from Cedric or YS Net (or the publishers)
 
Truck_1_0_1_ said:
Yeah, Tomboz has been on this very well, thus if any layman has a thought or opinion on the overall sales, I trust him more than others.

If it is at 200,000, I think that can be considered an overall success and it DEFINITELY bodes well for the future.

We'll see, as the numbers don't mean anything unless they come from Cedric or YS Net (or the publishers)
Click to expand...
The upper end of my estimate is based on growth from PSN Profiles, but as I’ve mentioned in the past, their initial sample group was pretty poor (hence why growth is so much higher than the other two sites and, most likely, why Game Stat figures are so low).

With that in mind, I think 35%-45% is more realistic. This would put us somewhere between 156,000 - 172,000 sales. That’s for PS4 only though. Iirc, that dude who hates Epic implied that someone within Epic had told him that there were 20,000-30,000 copies on the platform as of about a month ago, so 176,000 - 202,000 sales across all platforms.

I think Shenmue 3 will end up with between 250,000 and 350,000 lifetime sales with the upper end of that estimate possibly depending on an Xbone release later this year.

It’s not great, but hopefully enough to lead to a fourth game (remember that those figures do not include backer copies so from an investor’s point of view, sales potential for a fourth game is a little higher than sales of 3 might suggest).
 
Dg1995 said:
Guys, Shenmue 3 receiving patches and DLCs is due to this that it's a SUCCESS.

If it wasn't then they wouldn't make patches 1.03 and 1.04 and they would have cancelled the DLCs.
Click to expand...
Not necessarily. Updates patch are usually planned ahead of launch, and since the DLC plans were released and a Season Pass was available at launch date and we know that they are basically almost done, it would make zero sense to cancel DLC even if no a single copy was sold, because once the work is done is better to recoup any penny invested.

We still don't know numbers, but a team giving support in a 2 months old game is not a clear sign of success at all
 
Kyo_JP said:
Not necessarily. Updates patch are usually planned ahead of launch, and since the DLC plans were released and a Season Pass was available at launch date and we know that they are basically almost done, it would make zero sense to cancel DLC even if no a single copy was sold, because once the work is done is better to recoup any penny invested.

We still don't know numbers, but a team giving support in a 2 months old game is not a clear sign of success at all
Click to expand...
if the game sold like 10 copies then yeah.
Dlc's would be cancelled!

Bailu-Chan and the consequant extra content must indicate that the game is at least break even I would say.
 
Van Joel Sandwich said:
if the game sold like 10 copies then yeah.
Dlc's would be cancelled!

Bailu-Chan and the consequant extra content must indicate that the game is at least break even I would say.
Click to expand...
In this case I am pretty sure that DLC was the way that Deepsilver had of monetize on the KS people, so hardly. Also, refunding DLCs is a mess.
 
Kyo_JP said:
Not necessarily. Updates patch are usually planned ahead of launch, and since the DLC plans were released and a Season Pass was available at launch date and we know that they are basically almost done, it would make zero sense to cancel DLC even if no a single copy was sold, because once the work is done is better to recoup any penny invested.

We still don't know numbers, but a team giving support in a 2 months old game is not a clear sign of success at all
Click to expand...
The DLCs were planned. But they were not finished when Shenmue 3 was released.
If they were almost done then they would have been released much sooner or they would just be in the game from the beginning.

They allowed people to buy the DLCs from the beginning because the game definitely managed to break even before the release.(Backers had already provided 7 million of the budget. The rest were provided by Epic deal peobably alongside pre orders.)

Also Shenmue 3 is a game that didn't require additional patches after 1.02 since the game was a working product that barely had any bugs. So developers making patches is another sign that it's a success.
For example The Evil Within 2 was a failure which is why it never got any patches to fix it's performance issues and it also never got any DLCs unlike the first game.
 
Dg1995 said:
The DLCs were planned. But they were not finished when Shenmue 3 was released.
If they were almost done then they would have been released much sooner or they would just be in the game from the beginning.

They allowed people to buy the DLCs from the beginning because the game definitely managed to break even before the release.(Backers had already provided 7 million of the budget. The rest were provided by Epic deal peobably alongside pre orders.)

Also Shenmue 3 is a game that didn't require additional patches after 1.02 since the game was a working product that barely had any bugs. So developers making patches is another sign that it's a success.
For example The Evil Within 2 was a failure which is why it never got any patches to fix it's performance issues and it also never got any DLCs unlike the first game.
Click to expand...
That is a good point. Recall how few patches the Shenmue 1/2 ports got. They sort of just gave up after a couple weeks and it certainly had lots more to fix.
 
Dg1995 said:
The DLCs were planned. But they were not finished when Shenmue 3 was released.
If they were almost done then they would have been released much sooner or they would just be in the game from the beginning.

They allowed people to buy the DLCs from the beginning because the game definitely managed to break even before the release.(Backers had already provided 7 million of the budget. The rest were provided by Epic deal peobably alongside pre orders.)

Also Shenmue 3 is a game that didn't require additional patches after 1.02 since the game was a working product that barely had any bugs. So developers making patches is another sign that it's a success.
For example The Evil Within 2 was a failure which is why it never got any patches to fix it's performance issues and it also never got any DLCs unlike the first game.
Click to expand...

DLCs are not in the game from day 1 because for marketing reasons it is more clever what they are doing with the game, releasing it whenever they have planned with a time span between them, because at the end of the day you generate more buzz around it. Again, supporting a game is not a sign of success at all, Control has been a commercial failure as far as we know and it still supported and DLC incoming. We are in an age that commercial life span does not end on release date, and additional content is planned months or years ahead, so according to the market situation it is not a sign of success.

About that the game is successful just because of the KS and the Epic deal it is not true either, that is easy to recoup and make a profit yes, but there is still a 12 million game with at least 1 main producer (Shibuya) and a Publisher (DS) and they have to split the revenue. And it is because this game is KS with a loyal fanbase that they relay on the DLC to make more profit, not because it is a success that they are releasing DLC.
 
tomboz said:
Growth for the 23rd:
PSN Profiles: 1633->1650 (+1%).
True Trophies: 1290->1296 (+0.5%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2755->2763 (+0.3%)
Exophase: 1476->1479 (+0.2%).
Click to expand...
Is there any way to track this thing for the DLC? Since it also has trophies
 
Kyo_JP said:
It is useful to have this PSN Profile thing? I should create one maybe
Click to expand...

Its fun and nice to see all of your trophies together and the completion amounts.

They also generate a signature with all your trophies and such for message boards.

tomboz said:
PSN Profiles: 44/1650 (2.6%)
PSN Trophy Leaders: 17/2763 (0.6%)
True Trophies: 12/1296 (0.9%)
Exophase: 18/1479 (1.2%)
Click to expand...

It's gone up! lol
 
Truck_1_0_1_ said:
Its fun and nice to see all of your trophies together and the completion amounts.

They also generate a signature with all your trophies and such for message boards.



It's gone up! lol
Click to expand...
Yeah. Trophy sites tend to rescan once every few days meaning it can take a while for them to show up.

Whilst tracking DLC might not be too useful when it comes to calculating total sales, it could give us a fairly decent idea of how much additional revenue is being generated through individual DLC and season pass sales.

If, for example 1% of total players bought the DLC (I expect this number to rise significantly over the coming days and weeks) and we work on the assumption that there have been 156,000 to 172,000 sales plus around 60,000 people who backed enough for a backer copy, we’re looking at 1% of 216,000-232,000, so between 2,160 and 2,320 people who have either purchased the individual DLC or the season pass.

At either $6 or $15, that would suggest that DLC sales have already generated somewhere between $12,960 and $34,800.

If the percentage of players rises to 3%, were looking at somewhere between $38,880 and $104,000. I expect it will land on around 10% when all’s said and done, meaning between $129,600 and $348,000.

If we add on Epic users (some dude here on the forums claims to have been told that there are between 20,000 and 30,000 registered copies on the EGS including backers), 10% there would generate another $12,000 to $45,000 (assuming the number of copies sold on the EGS remains the same and the forum users info is reliable).

*How am I getting this number? I’m working with the figures we have and a little guess work. We know there were around 60,000 backer copies, 7,500 LE and SE copies, 20,000 in Japan’s opening 2 weeks, 5,500 in the UK’s opening week (we were told that it sold just over half of 1/2’s opening week which was reporter as being a littler over 10,000) and 2,000 copies from Spain’s opening week. Unfortunately, the lack of figures for digital sales and the rest of the world means we have to guess how many copies were sold and I think 65,000 seems like a reasonable assumption. This gives us 160,000 copies in circulation after the first few weeks. Trophy sites have shown growth of between 35% and 45% since December 10th which should suggest that there are now between 216,000 and 232,000 PS4 copies of Shenmue 3 in circulation (or between 156,000 and 172,000 sales).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top