Shenmue 3 Sales

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Just to chime in, my wife and I are both Shenmue lovers from the DC games. We got 2 PS4s to play this game (one was a gift, yay), and 2 physical copies (selfishly, thank God it didn't come out on Xbox, because that sweet sweet PS4 VR gateway drug. I'm a VR guy now and so happy with it...but not for Shenmue, of course). We contributed to the kickstarter, but only $5, because that's all we could afford at the time. I'm not sure if the assertion being made by some is that everyone who contributed gave enough that they didn't need to buy the game, but if so, that assumption would be a mistake. :)

I've been lurking and refreshing this thread for weeks. Some folks really like to gloom it up. Doomsayers abound. Also someone mentioned how quick d3t dropped support and patching for the HD rerelease. Just a travesty. They dgaf about fixing any of the mistakes they made with the fighting in the originals, and that's a shame since it's pretty much ruined in S3. Really hope they'll release an alternate fighting system as DLC, with set buttons and actual directional input for moves....and a face that actually looks like Ryo as an alternate choice (oh man, venting was the furthest thing from my mind when I started writing this! It's because I care...) A guy can dream, right?

We could have bought one digital copy and both played it (my PSN has her console set as "home", so she can play anything I buy as well) but where's the love in that? 2 discs, as it should be. :)
 
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Billkwando said:
Just to chime in, my wife and I are both Shenmue lovers from the DC games. We got 2 PS4s to play this game (one was a gift, yay), and 2 physical copies (selfishly, thank God it didn't come out on Xbox, because that sweet sweet PS4 VR gateway drug. I'm a VR guy now and so happy with it...but not for Shenmue, of course). We contributed to the kickstarter, but only $5, because that's all we could afford at the time. I'm not sure if the assertion being made by some is that everyone who contributed gave enough that they didn't need to buy the game, but if so, that assumption would be a mistake. :)

I've been lurking and refreshing this thread for weeks. Some folks really like to gloom it up. Doomsayers abound. Also someone mentioned how quick d3t dropped support and patching for the HD rerelease. Just a travesty. They dgaf about fixing any of the mistakes they made with the fighting in the originals, and that's a shame since it's pretty much ruined in S3. Really hope they'll release an alternate fighting system as DLC, with set buttons and actual directional input for moves....and a face that actually looks like Ryo as an alternate choice (oh man, venting was the furthest thing from my mind when I started writing this! It's because I care...) A guy can dream, right?

We could have bought one digital copy and both played it (my PSN has her console set as "home", so she can play anything I buy as well) but where's the love in that? 2 discs, as it should be. :)
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I think 81,087 total backers vs 60,000 backers who backed $35+ is a fair estimate.

I’ve tried where possible to be extra conservative when making estimates (if only to avoid people saying ‘there’s no way S3 sold X copies), but looking at the DLC numbers, I’m wondering if I may have been a little too conservative.

Let’s play Devil’s advocate for a moment and assume that the upper end range of my estimate for total copies in circulation (sales + backers) is right.

If around 1% of them have purchased and played the DLC as trophy sites suggest, that means only 2,320 people have purchased and played the DLC on PS4. Does that number not seem incredibly low considering the number of backers?

I know it’s early days still (the DLC has been out less than a week), I know it can take a day or two for trophy sites to update, I know that of the 81,000 backers some where just jumping on the hype train and never cared much for the game, I know that some people backed on both Kickstarter and Slacker backer which inflated the number of backers a little, I know that some backers were hurt by the Epic situation and walked away from the franchise and I know that some backers hated the game.

Even taking all of this into account, that less than 3% of backers have purchased the DLC seems very unlikely to me - and that’s saying nothing of any new fans of the series picked up after the releases of S1/2 HD and S3 that may also have purchased and played the DLC.

The percentage of overall players with the DLC will undoubtedly shoot up over the coming weeks, but for the percentage to be this low at this point is actually a good sign.
 
Nobody ever expected Shenmue to make Uncharted or Call of Duty sales. People look into this too much as most games do not sell and continue to happen.

The only suggestion one can make is to support the game with what you can. Time spent worrying about sales is less time you could be spending actually enjoying the franchise and just being a gamer.

Things are not bleak when you consititue the support and many different ways to buy the game and DLC options.
 
Growth for the 24th:
PSN Profiles: 1650->1662 (+0.7%).
True Trophies: 1296->1299 (+0.2%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2763->2775 (+0.4%)
Exophase: 1479->1484 (+0.3%).

DLC (as a percentage of total players).
PSN Profiles: 51/1662 (3.1%).
True Trophies: 18/1299 (1.4%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 29/2775 (1%)
Exophase: 22/1484 (1.5%).
 
It's quite positive to see that on PS4, the trophy for completing Bailu is classed as "common" meaning that half of people playing Shenmue III have at least completed half of the game. My understanding is that companies take notice of this data and i'm sure they would be pleased with this.

It suggests that there is (obvioulsy) a hardcore fanbase. It makes making additional Shenmue games more feasible if you ask for me. On the other hand, completing Chapter 4 (of 12/13?) of Judgment is classed as rare.

Food for thought.
 
LE and SE were many more :) 7500 are those that were sold only by Limited Run and Pixel'n Love. We don't know how many copies Best Buy, GameStop and the various Amazon sites had. But they all sold out
 
Crimson said:
LE and SE were many more :) 7500 are those that were sold only by Limited Run and Pixel'n Love. We don't know how many copies Best Buy, GameStop and the various Amazon sites had. But they all sold out
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indeed. I bought one of the CE that were available in the UK via GAME, but not one of the LR run. Same packaging almost as the LR, but not quite as nice. I don’t think we have numbers for how many standard CE were made/sold at any rate. They did sell out pretty rapidly though.
 
Growth for the 25th:
PSN Profiles: 1662->1671 (+0.5%).
True Trophies: 1299->1303 (+0.3%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2775->2781 (+0.2%)
Exophase: 1484->1487 (+0.2%).

DLC (as a percentage of total players).
PSN Profiles: 55/1671 (3.3%).
True Trophies: 25/1303 (1.9%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 48/2781 (1.7%)
Exophase: 26/1487 (1.7%).



Growth for the 26th:
PSN Profiles: 1671->1680 (+0.5%).
True Trophies: 1303->1307 (+0.3%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2781->2791 (+0.4%)
Exophase: 1487->1490 (+0.2%).

DLC (as a percentage of total players).
PSN Profiles: 58/1680 (3.5%).
True Trophies: 31/1307 (2.4%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 61/2791 (2.2%)
Exophase: 34/1490 (2.3%).



Growth for the 27th:
PSN Profiles: 1680->1688 (+0.5%).
True Trophies: 1307->1307 (=).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2791->2799 (+0.3%)
Exophase: 1490->1496 (+0.4%).

DLC (as a percentage of total players).
PSN Profiles: 60/1688 (3.6%).
True Trophies: 34/1307 (2.6%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 73/2799 (2.6%)
Exophase: 36/1496 (2.4%).
 
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Tortu-genial said:
A quick comparaison about the number of http://gamstat.com/games/ wich are pretty low for Shenmue 3
13th sentinel Aegis has sold 100k in japan and on Gamstat it say there is only 40k player

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Thanks for sharing this. We’ve known Gamestat was way off for some time, but there are some people who, for whatever reason, still seem to think they might be accurate. This shows just how far off their figures often are.

For their estimate to still be below the confirmed number of backer copies really pays waste to their claim of being more accurate than other api measuring sites.


Growth for the 28th:
PSN Profiles: 1688->1696 (+0.5%).
True Trophies: 1307->1316 (+0.6%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2799->2812 (+0.5%)
Exophase: 1496->1504 (+0.5%).

DLC (as a percentage of total players).
PSN Profiles: 60/1696 (3.5%).
True Trophies: 37/1315 (2.8%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 78/2812 (2.8%)
Exophase: 38/1504 (2.5%).
 
Tortu-genial said:
Another comparaison 13th sentinel Aegis, in his fisrt with it sold 34k in japan
www.gamekult.com

Charts Japon : 13 Sentinels voit enfin la lumière du jour

Parfum de Vanillaware
www.gamekult.com www.gamekult.com


I think Shenmue 3 sold 20k in his first week in japan
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True. It did also have the rather major disadvantage of only being on sale in Japan though. Shenmue also had a 50,000+ head start.

Growth for the 29th:
PSN Profiles: 1696->1696 (=).
True Trophies: 1315->1315 (=).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2812->2822 (+0.4%)
Exophase: 1504->1504 (=).

DLC (as a percentage of total players).
PSN Profiles: 60/1696 (3.5%).
True Trophies: 37/1315 (2.8%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 81/2822 (2.9%)
Exophase: 38/1504 (2.5%).


Continuous growth (12/10 - 01/29)
PSN Profiles: 851->1696 (+99%).
True Trophies: 956->1315 (+38%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 1900->2822 (+49%).

A bit early today so only one of the sites has updated!
 
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tomboz said:
I think 81,087 total backers vs 60,000 backers who backed $35+ is a fair estimate.

I’ve tried where possible to be extra conservative when making estimates (if only to avoid people saying ‘there’s no way S3 sold X copies), but looking at the DLC numbers, I’m wondering if I may have been a little too conservative.

Let’s play Devil’s advocate for a moment and assume that the upper end range of my estimate for total copies in circulation (sales + backers) is right.

If around 1% of them have purchased and played the DLC as trophy sites suggest, that means only 2,320 people have purchased and played the DLC on PS4. Does that number not seem incredibly low considering the number of backers?

I know it’s early days still (the DLC has been out less than a week), I know it can take a day or two for trophy sites to update, I know that of the 81,000 backers some where just jumping on the hype train and never cared much for the game, I know that some people backed on both Kickstarter and Slacker backer which inflated the number of backers a little, I know that some backers were hurt by the Epic situation and walked away from the franchise and I know that some backers hated the game.

Even taking all of this into account, that less than 3% of backers have purchased the DLC seems very unlikely to me - and that’s saying nothing of any new fans of the series picked up after the releases of S1/2 HD and S3 that may also have purchased and played the DLC.

The percentage of overall players with the DLC will undoubtedly shoot up over the coming weeks, but for the percentage to be this low at this point is actually a good sign.
Click to expand...

I wasn't singling out anyone in particular, and I meant what I said about backers as a positive. As in, it probably sold more copies than you think, because at least some of the backers still bought their copies they intended to play in a store or online (meaning not backers who got it and also bought a stack of S3s to use as Christmas ornaments or whatever).

Down by Law said:
Billkwando I know that name.... Neogeo.com? Rllmuk?
Click to expand...
Neo-Geo! Hello! :)
 
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1/29 -> 02/13 growth:
PSN Profiles: 1696->1850 (+9.1%).
True Trophies: 1315->1500 (+14.1%).
PSN Trophy Leaders: 2822->2945 (+4.4%).
Exophase: 1504->1559 (+3.7%).

2 week growth still seems pretty decent considering the games been out for more than 2 months now.
 
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