What is your estimated global sales of shenmue 3

RetroLord120 said:
Man we keep forgetting to include collectors editions.
The game did around 35k units physical in Japan, we can probably expect the us and other places (US, Canada, UK) to have a bit more. Maybe 50k. That gets us to 85k. Then the collectors editions, LRG & Pix n love - 5000 & 2500 units all sold out. Non LRG editions of the collectors editions were always selling out too, we can hope for another 5000 on top of that. 12500.
That'll get us around 97k.

This isn't including digital sales or epic games sales either, so if the game has sold 50k in digital and on epic games aswell, we are at 150k sales. There is also the backers which may be considered. 70k didn't all back enough to get a copy of the game, but we can assume maybe 35k of those who backed did the bare minimum to get the game sent to them. That's nearly 200k with that included.

I hope this is enough to get Shenmue 4!
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Japanese physical sales are probably closer to 25,000 (we should hopefully be able to get a solid number if it re-enters the top 50 this week), but I think you’re underestimating the number of backer copies sent out. The average amount backed was $100, and whilst this was no doubt inflated by those who backed significantly more, the number who backed $35+ (enough for a copy) was still probably 50,000 or higher.

If I had to guess, 200,000 copies in circulation right now sounds about right though. If growth continues at its current rate and there’s a slight bump for Christmas spending, I think 250,000 by the end of the year is realistic.
 
Let's all be honest with each other I don't think any of us expected it to do amazing its a niche game but when approx 60k copies were going out via KS its going to make an impact on overall sales.

By years end if its done 150-200k including digital then that is a great success imo.
 
RetroLord120 said:
Man we keep forgetting to include collectors editions.
The game did around 35k units physical in Japan, we can probably expect the us and other places (US, Canada, UK) to have a bit more. Maybe 50k. That gets us to 85k. Then the collectors editions, LRG & Pix n love - 5000 & 2500 units all sold out. Non LRG editions of the collectors editions were always selling out too, we can hope for another 5000 on top of that. 12500.
That'll get us around 97k.

This isn't including digital sales or epic games sales either, so if the game has sold 50k in digital and on epic games aswell, we are at 150k sales. There is also the backers which may be considered. 70k didn't all back enough to get a copy of the game, but we can assume maybe 35k of those who backed did the bare minimum to get the game sent to them. That's nearly 200k with that included.

I hope this is enough to get Shenmue 4!
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Wow I never imagined anyone would back for less than $30. What would be the freaking point? But I believe you. I don't hope, as long as SEGA has no control over IP Shenmue 4 will happen. I hated reading from some that stated they bought Shenmue 3, played for 3 hours and hated it. That they expected another game that's called Shenmue, but doesn't play like Shenmue. I think we need patience to see DLCs come out first. At least some info on what the first one is. He just can't do anything else before he does them. They sold season passes, he must fulfill them.
 
Zoltor said:
You throw the word kickstarter around, as if Shenmue 3 is the first entry of a new IP, and Yu Suzuki was just some random developer lol

A supposed fiasco that people care so little about, it hasn't been talked about in awhile now. Know why no one cares about it, it wasn't promoted as a steam game during the KS at all, and the EPIC deal ultimately lead to a better game.

Sure to an extent, an extent that wasn't to the point it could hurt the KS at all. Do you not remember the smear campaigns people were running the day after the KS launched. Just do what we did then, combat false info, with the correct info. I can assure you, the cancerous aspect of Youtube wont be as bad as it was then.

As far as the general perception of the project goes, the perfect remedy for that, is a quality game, if the game doesn't suck(which it wont, infact the evidence implies It's going to be great), they wont have fuel to use.
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Zoltor said:
DSs buzz is already dead. It will get a resurgence upon release no doubt, but after a week, no one will be talking about it anymore, and Shenmue 3 will still be getting talked about.
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Zoltor said:
You do realize Kojima is just the Stephen King of the VG industry don't you? Shenmue 3 will easily have more mainstream appeal then Death Stranding, and no amount of overpaid Hollywood actors, is going to make up for a lack of gameplay.

Don't believe me, fine, see for your self when Shenmue 3 comes out, which games gets the most buzz, and still talked about way after release.

Even the biggest Kojima fans aren't liking what they are seeing, and have lost all hope for good gameplay, and now just hoping atleast the story will be good.
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Zoltor said:
That Isn't hostile, don't post insane statements like that, if you are unwilling to accept that people are going to state, how insane such a statement is.

I'm just helping you see how crazy that statement was, nothing more, there's no hostility in my reply at all.
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Zoltor said:
Oh yea forgot about that, well then nothing to worry about.

Many people are still going to get Death Stranding, especially Youtubers, but to most people, that IP may as well already be dead. It's literally a package delivery simulator, with a very bland looking landscape. If there's any more to the game, no one can tell, because if there was more to it all, then the marketing was as trashy as can be.


You'll get people bying Death Stranding for no other reason then It's Kojima sure, but I 100% expect Shenmue 3 to appeal more to the mainstream then Death Stranding will.
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Zoltor said:
You do realize your numbers basically state, only fie hard fans are going to buy Shenmue, no one else. You, and anyone else posting such crazy low numbers are underestimating Shenmue to the extreme, as well as the marketing power of Shenmue 3.

Shenmue 3 Isn't even out, yet, yet I've been seeing being try out the older games(they're almost older then they all lol), and like them. This alone proves It's not only going to sell to the diehards, and do I need to remind you how powerful a tool Youtube is, for a gave as diverse/complex as a Shenmue game. The Shenmue franchise is like the holy grail for fan made videos/content, and It's enjoyable as hell to stream as well.
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:tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy:

Honestly I forgot to quote you post release to laugh at your utter bullshit, Now seems like a perfect time to laugh at your complete utter drivel.

See how Shenmue III did worldwide and have a read back at your comments, They're comedy gold :tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy::tearsofjoy:

Your predictions are worse than Micheal Pachters regarding the games industry.
 
mjqjazzbar said:
Looks like it's just barely at around #180 in its first week. Well, guess a year-old game wasn't gonna set the world on fire.

store.steampowered.com

Steam Search

store.steampowered.com store.steampowered.com
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If Steamspy is anything to go by, it looks to have moved around 12,000 copies. Not great considering the huge discount and that some of those are backers. As you say though, for a year old game with average reviews, I suppose that was probably to be expected.
 
tomboz said:
If Steamspy is anything to go by, it looks to have moved around 12,000 copies. Not great considering the huge discount and that some of those are backers. As you say though, for a year old game with average reviews, I suppose that was probably to be expected.
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I mean at least it's 12k sales in the bag.... is there something similar for GOG? A quick google doesn't say much.
 
orient said:
That's around $120,000 in the bank after Steam's cut I think. Probably chump change for a publisher but hey, it's money that Shenmue's making.
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I think Shenmue 3 has sold 350k-500k worldwide. If I had to bet money I would say it's closer to 350k.
 
Van Joel Sandwich said:
anyone got official numbers tho?
How you guys think SHenmue 3 did on Steam?
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Sadly no. Deep Silver won't say a thing about it.

We don't know how much Epic gave or how much copy they bought in advance, we don't have number for digital whatsoever, we can't know how much physical unless it was on the charts. Even SteamSpy isn't necessary trustworthy.

All we know for sure is Deep Silver saying it sold less than expected but still did well financially and Cédric Biscay told during a livestream that he was satisfied with the sales (to be confirmed, I'm not sure I recall correctly for this).

We also have to take into account the Backer's copy.

It's really complicated. I miss the times where publisher would communicate fully on the sales of a project, instead of just saying "it did OK lmao"
 
I have a feeling (based on everything we know about the budget, investors, Kickstarter, etc.) that Deep Silver invested ~10M into the project. Given they struck a deal with Epic that most likely secured them millions up front, let's say around 5M for a guarantee on ~100,000 copies (just a wild but semi-educated guess), and we assume the game never reached that sales threshold (a fair assumption, I think) so no extra money is counted from the Epic store...

...then, if we also assume the game's sold minimum 100,000 copies on PS4, excluding backers, then the likelihood of Deep Silver making their money back is very likely. Obviously if the game has sold closer to 200,000 copies on PS4 then Deep Silver would've made a decent profit.

The total budget according to Yu (excluding the 7M in crowdfunding, because they don't need to make that money back) was ~13M. For the game to recoup that, it'd have to sell in the vicinity of 350,000 copies across all platforms, excluding backer copies. I'd love if people had more data to support the theory that it's sold that amount :p
 
tomboz said:
If Steamspy is anything to go by, it looks to have moved around 12,000 copies. Not great considering the huge discount and that some of those are backers. As you say though, for a year old game with average reviews, I suppose that was probably to be expected.
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Just checked SteamSpy, right now the sales are between 0-20'000. On steamspy the numbers are by slice. So we know that it's less than 20'000. It could be 100 or 19'999 for that matter. Also it says "owner" not "buyers", so every PC backer that received their Steam Key is calculated in that number.

The 12'000 you're talking about are the followers. You can follow games on Steam without necessarily owning it.

So, yeah, I do think the total sales on Steam are really low.
 
Looking into Gamestat figures (these have now been archived as of Nov 19th 2020)

Total player count
83,000

83,000 players (100%)
earned at least one trophy according to Gamestat.

The thing is Shenmue III has that bloody trophy bug so the list doesn't populate until you earn that first trophy which is why the Total Player Count and the Players are the same amount...

Lets take a look at another example

Darksiders Genesis

Total player count
120,000

78,000 players (63%)
earned at least one trophy

So in this case 42,000 players have played this but not earned a trophy (wild)

As the stats are similar to Shenmue III lets assume the real player count is around 120,000 as well.

That won't take into account multiple copies or offline games so lets say 130K all round for arguments sake

Lets say the total amount of PC sales across Steam, GOG and Epic is ~ 50K then we're looking at around 180K all together

I still don't think that's too bad when you consider the hardcore fans prepaid for their copies 5 years in advance, but it's not brilliant either.

The problem Shenmue has is it costs so much more to make than typical indie games but at least the engine and ground work is in.

Where Shenmue benefits is the fanbase is vocal and with deep pockets.

Maybe a Streets of Rage 4 style approach is needed where the game is initially sold at digital only with a limited disc version for fans coming later

Worked on me I bought digital and physical
 
Down by Law said:
Looking into Gamestat figures (these have now been archived as of Nov 19th 2020)

Total player count
83,000

83,000 players (100%)
earned at least one trophy according to Gamestat.

The thing is Shenmue III has that bloody trophy bug so the list doesn't populate until you earn that first trophy which is why the Total Player Count and the Players are the same amount...

Lets take a look at another example

Darksiders Genesis

Total player count
120,000

78,000 players (63%)
earned at least one trophy

So in this case 42,000 players have played this but not earned a trophy (wild)

As the stats are similar to Shenmue III lets assume the real player count is around 120,000 as well.

That won't take into account multiple copies or offline games so lets say 130K all round for arguments sake

Lets say the total amount of PC sales across Steam, GOG and Epic is ~ 50K then we're looking at around 180K all together

I still don't think that's too bad when you consider the hardcore fans prepaid for their copies 5 years in advance, but it's not brilliant either.

The problem Shenmue has is it costs so much more to make than typical indie games but at least the engine and ground work is in.

Where Shenmue benefits is the fanbase is vocal and with deep pockets.

Maybe a Streets of Rage 4 style approach is needed where the game is initially sold at digital only with a limited disc version for fans coming later

Worked on me I bought digital and physical
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Yeah. I do believe at the very best we are around 200k players. Of course on those players, there are the backers.

I must admit I was hoping for better figures.

Again the best source would be Deep Silver and/or Shibuya, but they won't say shit. All they say is that it did fine financially. But we don't know what they mean by that, if they took Epic Money into account with the financial situation.

But let's hope that the anime will bring light on the games again and maybe the game will sale more?
 
Honestly Sega is so risk adverse we're lucky to be getting the Anime IMO

The fact that it's taken them a decade to make a new Virtua Fighter when fighting games had a big comeback says it all

and that might not even be a new game at all
 
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