It's difficult because we don't have a set release date. Going on other games like this a 4 year development schedule isn't uncommon. 2019 I think it will come out probably the latter half.
Your point around the ps5 is interesting. I'm predicting a late 2019 announcement for the ps5 with a 2020 release. That would be fine for Shenmue 3. My argument here is that both Sony and Microsoft haven't long had their upgrade systems in the market. Ps4 pro is 2 years I think this year. So they run the risk of knocking consumer confidence. For me they have to beat that annoucnement if they do you've got a large install base and no sight of a successor. I promise you they are working flat out to get this out asap.
Absolutely this opportunity for Shenmue is huge and we must take advantage of it. SEGA have already commented that they have been surprised by the amount of pre orders already. That's a plus. It is down to us once a date is announced to buy the game and help get others to do so. If Shenmue 3 is a success alongside the HD releases I've a sneaking suspicion Sega might pick up Shenmue 4 (probably on PS5) and get YSNET to do it.
So what are the backer supposed to just walk away and have nothing to show for the money they invested in this if this goes belly up? Sorry that's not how it works, people point out that Yu Suzuki has a history of being secretive with his projects, while this is true I can counter with the fact that Suzuki-san could be as secretive as he wanted to in the past because SEGA were the ones funding his projects, when you get financial backing from the public on the other hand, that expectation of secrecy goes out the window, and after 3 years of development the people who backed this (myself being one of them) want to start seeing some results, how is that having an entitlement attitude (our money went into this so we have every right to see some results)? I guess if we go by your definition all investors that back companies and products worldwide have an "entitled attitude", it's called putting your financiers at ease and thus far Ys.net & DS have done an abysmal job in doing that whether you want to admit it or not.We really don't, and this kind of entitled attitude will lead to more negative impressions of the game when the developers feel pressured to show it in the kind of state the public is not used to seeing.
You donated your money, and if all goes well, you'll get your selected rewards. That's where the formal backer/creator relationship ends. You're not an investor, you're not a shareholder, and you won't have a claim to Yu's first born if the project goes belly-up.
So what are the backer supposed to just walk away and have nothing to show for the money they invested in this if this goes belly up? Sorry that's not how it works
Shenmue 3 didn't truly start development until that day in June last year when YSNET secured Deep Silver as the game's publisher.
That's the problem. If YS Net keep dragging development on and on like that, chances are they might as well move the development to PS5. If S3 comes out after the PS5's launch, a lot of people will have lost interest in PS4 games by then. Let alone the fact that the remasters are coming out on PS4 which would mean that if PS5 doesn't have backwards compatibility, the first two games would again not be playable on (then) current-gen consoles.
They need to get S3 out on PS4 and in 2019, otherwise Shenmue will probably be in deep trouble again. With the remasters coming to PS4, there's no way YS Net can afford to let this console generation pass.
Looking at the life cycles of Sony's past consoles, they each had a life span of 6 to 7 years.
PS1: 1994 - 2000
PS2: 2000 - 2006
PS3: 2006 - 2013
PS5 will probably come out in 2019 or 2020. I really hope the stretch goal talk is pure marketing this late into the game's development and a way to generate some extra revenue from the slacker backer campaign. If Yu is really thinking about adding additional features to the battle system as late as now, he might wanna think twice. This game needs to come out in 2019. One of the most crucial factors for the long-term future of the series is to avoid for S3 to come late to the PS4's party.
Bringing out S3 on a last-gen console which PS4 will become sooner or later, or on a new console with no user base installed yet both don't seem to be wise moves to me. Let alone the costs of moving the project over to PS5.
With licensing out Shenmue to Yu and bringing the S1 & 2 remasters, Sega have done their part. More than could have been expected of them to be honest. Now it's time for YS Net to do their part of the job. And they'd better bloody well deliver! We as the hardcore part of the fan base may be happy to wait for S3 to come out as a PS4 game in 2020 or 2021 but chances are the rest of the market will not..
I'd estimate Yu's got another year, one and a half years max to deliver a great Shenmue 3. If YS Net can't pull that off, who knows what will happen? Let's not kid ourselves, here. This is probably the last chance Sega, Deep Silver or any other publisher for that matter will give Shenmue as a franchise.
That's not really accurate. In fact S3 left the stage of pre-production and went into full production in late 2016, before the Deep Silver deal.
"R&D for various game elements is on course as the development team shifts its focus towards production. Main game scenarios are nearing completion, motion capture tests are well under way, and voicing tests with the cast have begun. Yu-san and the production staff are happy to say they are enjoying the work as they continue to diligently make progress on the mini-games, events, and battles. "
https://shenmue.link/post_en/424/?en
I should have italicized truly.
Anyhow, actual Unreal Engine pre production started in September 2015, shortly after Yu returned from his trip to China, and continued right up until the end of 2016. Full production began in January of 2017. The Gamescom demo that we were shown in August 2017 was from a June build, meaning that this extended trailer represented approximately 6 months worth of development effort by a very small and understaffed team. In June Suzuki traveled to Germany and inked the publishing deal with Deep Silver.
From that time forward things have been mum, and rightly so. Deep Silver wants to avoid any further publicity mishaps / gaming editorial scrutiny, especially with the amount they have invested in the game (which very well eclipses our collective crowdfunding efforts). The next time we see Shenmue 3 it will be a very different game - and there's a very good chance that it may not be until 2019.